[Adam]

If Pentax would let me, I'd put money down NOW on a FF. Heck, I would pay full price now. I would gladly give them $2500-5000 right now.

I would sit tight for a few months more, just in case something is coming

Obviously there weren't 1,000 K-01 pre-orders, because the camera is still in stock at both Adorama AND B&H and none of the versions have been sold out I know that both stores order the cameras is very large quantities, but I don't think they're quite as high for Pentax items. Our order referrals are a pretty good measure of how many people pre-order stuff, and we only had 3 for the K-01. With that said, the K-01 seems to be getting a pretty good popular reception! Based on past (low) figures, the Pentax FF will almost certainly set a record...

Adam
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[joe.penn]

Could Pentax pull even 1000 pre-orders?

I would be surprised if they pulled even close to that on the K01 (which is like 25% of the price of a FF pentax).

[normhead]

In my opinion its the other way around, pentax is gambling on not having ff and *IS* losing.

And you understand enough about the company to know this is true. You are aware of all their revenue streams etc. Every one of their more current ventures, be it the Q or the K-01 has been aimed at producing more value for money spent. An FF is probably the exact opposite of that. Big bucks to be spent for not much. The Q gives you DSLr functionality on a compact system, the K-01 gives you K-5 IQ at a much lower price. FF gives you a teeny tiny little bit more functionality at a much higher price, it's the opposite of more value for your money. It will cost more to develop an FF system than either a Q or K-01, and because of the higher starting price point it will have less chance of success... that's basic economics.

Usually you have to spend money to gamble. I'm not seeing how not spending money can be seen as a gamble, unless somehow making money on a full frame is guaranteed, which it's not, and losing money on a Q or K-01 is also a certainly. Neither of which are true. I'm with Pentax on this. Unless they can come up with a product that is truly unique... there is absolutely no point in taking on the giants. And that is out of Pentax's hands. If Sony or someone else can come up with a low cost full frame high quality sensor that would enable Pentax to come in at a price point say 1/2 to 2/3s of a Nikon or Canon system... and the Pentax guys can once again milk more out of that sensor than the other companies that will be buying it, then they have a shot. But it's not their turf. They have never had a DSLR FF camera, they are going to have to take market share from others who have no intention of giving it up, and nothing short of a great price point and aggressive product placement is going to do that. It is more likely to be money down the tube than money well spent, in my opinion.

Look at what percentage of Nikon or Canon business is FF.. they have about 40% market share each. Pentax might be as high as 5%. Apply the same numbers to Pentax and what is their possible market share of the total market for an FF camera? Maybe .1% of the total market using their existing customer base? Would 1 in 20 or even 1 in 100 Pentax customers be interested in an FF?

All I'm saying is, I don't see how this would be viable... enlighten me.



I'm just going with guesses here. Maybe Pentax has something up their sleeves. For all the FF lovers I hope so, but right now it's APS-c users and point and shoot users who are paying the piper. It's yet to be seen if there is a market for a Pentax FF. I think you guys are actually hoping Pentax will come up with an FF Pentax, paid for buy the rest of us Pentax users, maybe one basic model without a lot of bells and whistles, not competitive with what other companies offer, but something that would let us take good FF images at a much lower cost. The K1000 of FF if you will. The problem with that notion is the overbearing cost of FF sensors...

[Verglace]

No I don't have enough information to know this is true. All I know is that Pentax is losing marketshare, and their "unique" product so far has been a flop. They keep thinking "fill the gap in the market place", have they considered that maybe the reason why there is a gap is because its not practical. A $600 interchangable lens camera with a sensor no larger than most $80 cameras. That's a nice gap to fill. Not to mention to create it they had to make a new mount and a new series of lenses. Basic economics, products sell when there is a demand for them. Pentax can make all their unique products but if there is no demand for them then it will flop. There is however a known demand for full frame. Also I doubt it would cost much more to develop a full frame camera than to make a brand new system like the Q. With full frame they already have a bunch of lenses that they can use and an existing customer base. With the Q they had to make a whole new system, mount and gambled on a potential customer base.

You don't have to spend money to lose... opportunity cost (again, basic economics). Pentax has accumulated a lot of those, over the years. How many people had Pentax and moved to another because they wanted full frame? Pentax could have kept those people but they are gone now, its happened before and will happen again, and will continue to happen until they fix that obvious hole in their lineup. Every person that leaves Pentax is a reduction in Pentax's market share and an increase for the company that they moved to. How many people wanted to get into photography but did not consider Pentax because they did not have an upgrade path to full frame? True none of them are pros or would ever be, but aspiration is a powerful motivation.

Have you considered that one of the reason Pentax's market share is so low is because they simply made the wrong decisions in the past, one of those decisions could be their hesitation to release full frame cameras.

[stanleyk]

What percentage of Canon or Nikon's total dslr sales are FF models? I honestly don't know.

[Verglace]

Unless they can come up with a product that is truly unique... there is absolutely no point in taking on the giants.

So they take on physics instead? On a the same level of technology bigger sensor = better IQ, physics dictate it, sure 645d is a bigger sensor but its not a k-mount, moving from k-mount to 645 is the same as moving from k-mount to an eos mount. You can use converters but its not a direct upgrade path.

[LaurenOE]

I've been with Pentax for the long run. I have watched the debacle over the EI-3000 and the MZ-D. People lost their jobs at Pentax, and the missteps nearly sunk the company. FF has always been on the burner at Pentax, and the reason they are so coy about it is because the MZ-D and EI-3000 are still remembered - painfully.

It's hard to get back in the ring when you had TWO cameras in the dawn of the digital age that were still born.

The cameras that saved Pentax are the *istD, K10D and the K5.

Everything else that Pentax has made is a hedge-bet.

There will be a FF, but Pentax can't screw it up (again), so they are taking their time.

When the Pentax FF comes, it will be a runaway success as the hedge-bets pay off and people look for something amazing.

---

Last edited by LaurenOE; 03-17-2012 at 09:22 PM.

[tuco]

When the Pentax FF comes...

It better come with a pile of new lenses released at the same time. I doubt new comers are going to want to scrap around for legacy glass.

[Raffwal]

I would sit tight for a few months more, just in case something is coming

Either you know something we don't - and we should get excited - or you're a huge optimist and should not give us false hope. Hmmm...

[Emacs]

I have to go with Norm and Rupert. I just don't believe there is a big enough demand in the current user base for a $2500+ camera

People who is raving of pathetic Fuji with its outdated controls, low color resolution sensor and mediocre optics is a good example why Pentax can reach a success with FF offer

[rawr]

the Q which flopped and we'll see how the k-01 will do, right now the Olympus OM-D E-M5 could do better than the k-01.

I remember seeing some market data around that showed the Q as the best selling mirrorless system in Japan or something to that effect. Labelling it a flop may be an overstatement, especially as only Pentax knows how many have been sold and what money they are making on the camera. Also the Q does about as well sensor-wise as the Fuji X10 according to DXO, so even technically it can't be considered a flop

And the micro 4/3 Olympus OM-D E-M5 and the K-01 are hardly competitors. The more expensive and very different Olympus is aimed more at the retro Fuji X10/X100/XPRO crowd, I think, rather than the folks likely to buy the K-01.

[TOUGEFC]

I would sit tight for a few months more, just in case something is coming

I really hope there is a FF coming, because my days are numbered with Pentax. And the D800 is calling... a few more months and I will make my move.

[Samsungian]

Whenever I read Q is a sales success in Japan, I go to BCN and see for myself:


????????????????BCN?????????


Some offers have a lens others two lenses others are body only.


Pentax Japan market share from 1-1-2012 thru 3-13-2012 results are currently:


Pentax K-5 is #18 with wr kit lens

Pentax Q is #48 w/ 2 lens

Pentax K-5 is #57

Pentax Q is # 66

Pentax K-5 is #67

Pentax K-r is # 75

Pentax Q is #77

How successful is the Q in Japan ? Go to BCN and see.
Japan market sales are updated weekly.
At the moment Pentax K-01 has not entered into Japan's Top 80 sellers in 2012.

Now consider Japan Marketshare in all of 2011 as its easy to do.

The Japan market Top 20 in 2011 link at BCN:

2011??????????????????????????????????



One

Nikon D3100

1420 is MegaPixels

9.7 is % marketshare



Two

Canon EOS Kiss X4

1800

8.3



Three

Canon EOS Kiss X5

1800

8.0



Four

Panasonic LUMIX GF2

1210

5.6



Five

Canon EOS 60D

1800

5.2



Six

Sony NEX-5

1420

5.0



Seven

Nikon D7000

1620

4.7



Eight

OLYMPUS PEN Lite E-PL2

1230

4.4



Nine

Nikon D90

1230

4.1



Ten

Nikon D5100

1620

4.0



11

OLYMPUS PEN Lite E-PL1s

1230

3.8



12

Pentax Kr

1240

3.0



13

Sony α55

1620

2.7



14

OLYMPUS PEN Lite E-PL1

1230

2.7



15

Panasonic LUMIX GF3

1210

2.4



16

Canon EOS 7D

1800

2.4



17

Sony NEX-C3

1620

2.2



18

Sony NEX-3

1420

2.0



19

Canon EOS Kiss X3

1510

1.6



20

Canon EOS 5D MarkII

2110

1.5


Using these stats Pentax K-r was a sales success in Japan in 2011 placing 12th and taking 3% of total interchangeable lens camera sales.

K-r was available in 100 colors in Japan.

Another point, Late 2008 era Canon 5D Mark II placed #20 in all of 2011.
So Canon's 3 years old full frame outsold Pentax K-5 as K-5 did not place in Top 20 in 2011.

Happy Full Frame Shopping !

[Mistral75]

What percentage of Canon or Nikon's total dslr sales are FF models? I honestly don't know.

Less than 5% in number of bodies and less than 10% in turnover in 2010.

[normhead]

There is however a known demand for full frame.

Too funny.... if Pentax knew there was a known demand for FF, there'd be a Pentax FF. They are there to make money. It isn't known if the demand for a Pentax FF would be enough to pay for R&D and turn a profit. If you have proof there is demand, I'm sure you can get the attention of Pentax execs... if not, quit writing like there is.

As someone said above... I think they'll come out with something in FF if for no other reason, just to sell more FA lenses... and I'd be interested to see what it is. But, I'm not going to hold my breath. And I'm going to have to see much better arguments for FF than I've seen so far before I'm personally interested. Especially since many of the FF people here already own FF cameras from other companies. It's not like they have no other choices. RIght now if Pentax releases a new FF body, their immediate market will be a few Pentax users who haven't already migrated to other systems, and people looking at a used Nikon D700. Is anyone really anticipating Pentax coming out with a D800 or D3x killer, right out of the gate?

As weight increases, my interest wanes.