[philbaum]

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-201403_e.pdf

In the upper section of the chart, looking at the second column section for "Total Shipment - Worldwide", in the 3* column, it shows:

A. For single lens reflex cameras (dslrs), only 79.9% cameras were shipped in March compared to the same month in 2013

B. For non-single lens reflex cameras (mirrorless), 103.7% cameras were shipped in March compared to the same month in 2013

These are total worldwide numbers.

My point is that this is the first time i recall where DSLR sales are slipping faster than mirrorless sales - world-wide. Actually, mirrorless sales are 3.7% higher than the same month a year ago.

Combine that little tidbit with the recent AF comparisons of mirrorless versus D4s by "The Camera Store", where the 4 newest strongest AF mirrorless were almost as good in AF responsiveness to the D4s, shows to me that mirrorless cameras are starting to shoulder aside conventional dslrs. Admittedly, mirrorless sales are still only about 25% of the sales of DSLRs, but i think there's a trend towards a stronger mirrorless market.

Oddly enough, Pentax has probably helped these numbers with the Q, Nikon with the 1 system, and Canon with their M mount(are they still making it?). Nevertheless, its Fuji, Sony, Panasonic and Olympus who are the most active in the mirrorless market place.

[VoiceOfReason]

On the DSLRs shipped I wonder how much that has to do with the piled of Canikon cameras in Best Buy, Sams, etc. that look as if they have been sitting around a bit.

[monochrome]

Lies, damned lies and statistics? I certainly do not argue in favor of any one technology above another - I own mirrorless and traditional ILC's - twice as many digital MILC as dSLR's - but this single-point observation does not extend to any meaningful assertion.

Please show some nominal values. For instance 1037 is 103.7% of 1000. 7,990,000 is 79.9% of 10,000,000. The item which shipped 1037 units is holding its market better than the item which shipped 7,990,000, but the relationship is clearly not correlated, nor even associated.

Also. please discuss qualifications such as were suggested by VoR above. Was March, 2013 unusual in any respect for dSLR shipments? Or for MILC shipments?

[philbaum]

Now that i look at the chart closer, they provide the numbers for the first quarter also:

Column 4 is for Jan Feb Mar of 2014 compared to the same period a year previously.

A. DSLRs shipments were 82.7% for this 3 months from the previous year, 2.1 million cameras

B. Mirrorless shipments were 115.7% for this 3 months from the previous year, 0.7 million cameras

I've no intention into turning this into some sort of research project, let the online pundits do that :-).

I think the DSLRs will plateau out at some point and then their percentages will look better a year from now.

:

[Emacs]

Lies, damned lies and statistics? I certainly do not argue in favor of any one technology above another - I own mirrorless and traditional ILC's - twice as many digital MILC as dSLR's - but this single-point observation does not extend to any meaningful assertion.

Please show some nominal values. For instance 1037 is 103.7% of 1000. 7,990,000 is 79.9% of 10,000,000. The item which shipped 1037 units is holding its market better than the item which shipped 7,990,000, but the relationship is clearly not correlated, nor even associated.

Also. please discuss qualifications such as were suggested by VoR above. Was March, 2013 unusual in any respect for dSLR shipments? Or for MILC shipments?

The topic starter wrote also about the things you have pointed.

[Winder]

My point is that this is the first time i recall where DSLR sales are slipping faster than mirrorless sales - world-wide. Actually, mirrorless sales are 3.7% higher than the same month a year ago.

Its hard to compare numbers across different systems. Release cycles play a huge role. What was the last big release for a DSLR? DSLRs are much more mature systems and on longer release cycles. Sony, Fuji, & Olympus have all released MILC's that have been a significant improvement over the previous offerings and this drives sales of new product. There have not been many significant DSLRs released. The Df got a lot of press, but I don't think sales have been strong.

The data in the link is more of an indicator of sales cycles and advances in the younger system compared to the older DSLRs.

[aurele]

On the DSLRs shipped I wonder how much that has to do with the piled of Canikon cameras in Best Buy, Sams, etc. that look as if they have been sitting around a bit.

i think, canikon hve flooded the market with very cheap DSLR, and that now, so many are siting in shelves like the rebels T3i for example.

The shrinking of the market is more or less due to this huge stock that need to clear, AND the fact that many people realize that a DSLR is useless if you are just snapping and don't want to bother with anykind of setting.

[VoiceOfReason]

i think, canikon hve flooded the market with very cheap DSLR, and that now, so many are siting in shelves like the rebels T3i for example.

The shrinking of the market is more or less due to this huge stock that need to clear, AND the fact that many people realize that a DSLR is useless if you are just snapping and don't want to bother with anykind of setting.

This is where I was going with my original post. There is so much stock of older stuff out there that isn't moving, so there's no way people are going to keep accepting more shipments. I've seen brand new t3i and d3000 cameras for sale recently. That doesn't seem to indicate good things for Canikon.

Of course if they stuck that sensor in a superzoom P&S with a really good jpeg engine and auto setting I bet those would sell well.

[monochrome]

Which is my rather sarcastic point. We knew April 30th 2013 CaNikon were overproducing and stuffing the channel. Ricoh actually told us publicly THEY knew that, and they weren't going to fall victim to it.

Which is why I believe the OP needs to add background to the post to make a meaningful statement. As posted the statement is eye-catching but unintentionally deceptive, associating as it does the shipment drops with the D4s recent AF test by one source.

One could as likely post a WSJ clip about 1st quarter USA consumer spending declies and consumer credit tightness (which are true) and associate the drop in dSLR shipments with USA retailers shrinking inventory. Of course, the larger-market-share dSLR's will show a larger hit from the USA shipments drop than the smaller-market-share MILC's. And MILC's are more accepted in Asia than the West.

But we should not infer from that USA-specific data point this is a sign that MILC's are beating dSLR's globally.

[jethro10]

Monochrome, give the op a break will you. He clearly stated his point was it's the first time he has seen mirrorless % sales be better than mirrored. His point is clearly correct and unambiguous.
No more, no less.
Not sure what crusade you're turning this into.
J

[Kayaker-J]

But... for starters, somebody needs to start realizing a meaningful and stable profit structure selling a complete mirrorless system. So far, that isn't Fuji, Sony, Panasonic, or Olympus.

And a second point: When will mirrorless system cameras start appearing at retail prices commensurate with their much lower unit production costs, compared to labor-intensive, high parts count DSLRs... BEFORE the fire sales happen? I am sympathetic with the conundrum these manufactures face committing to a long term strategy to grab market share under present market conditions. For most well-capitalized businesses with plans to hang around, market share points are much more critical and ultimately valuable than short term profit gains... or wowee-zowee camera body introductions, for that matter (see: Canon...).

Unfortunately, for most publicly traded businesses, this typically has them working at cross-purposes. Dealing effectively with that is what an intelligent business plan is all about. Again, I can sympathize... but I think that doing business in the 21st Century, where the growth and locus of the really relevant consumer markets is changing so fast, calls for innovative -- and truly real world -- business strategies fit for the times. (I might note here that some Forum contributors -- not necessarily including the initiator of this thread -- tend to regularly overestimate the importance of our enthusiast's perspective, which is natural enough... and seem to project a rather provincial -- i.e., typically American -- bias underlying some conjectures about camera-business practices. I regret to say I think this leads to well-meaning, but questionable conclusions being put forward. I just doubt that many of these hopeful enthusiasms are likely to have too much relevance in the end.)

Back to business, the kind of forward thinking sketched here is not something the companies mentioned are particularly noted for -- addressing specifically the higher profile, consumer product markets within which they currently choose to compete (among other enterprises of larger concern, it should be noted). If I had to guess, and I underscore the word guess, I might point to Fuji as most likely to be moving forward in a coherent way: I'd cite the rapidity with which they have been developing a full-on system of lenses -- in a logical and understandable way... and the good reputation they are building in matters of customer service and product support. Rivals like Sony and Olympus, and potentially, Nikon (just to mention some obvious examples), seem to be stuck, moving in the wrong direction.

Whether Fuji will achieve the kind of all-around, aggressively competitive price structure needed, concentrated on higher end products (where they have a chance)... well, that remains to be seen. As for Pentax/Ricoh Imaging, the field's wide open for guesses. Of course, as opinions go, I can only do the best I can to contain my own enthusiast's biases! Anyway, regardless of business matters, let's all just keep having fun at this.

[aurele]

This is where I was going with my original post. There is so much stock of older stuff out there that isn't moving, so there's no way people are going to keep accepting more shipments. I've seen brand new t3i and d3000 cameras for sale recently. That doesn't seem to indicate good things for Canikon.

indeed. The creepy thing for Canikon is that can be seen in Europe too.

And a second point: When will mirrorless system cameras start appearing at retail prices commensurate with their very much lower unit production costs, compared to labor-intensive, high parts count DSLRs... BEFORE the fire sales?

When a market is completely flooded, and start living thanks to fire sales, then, the next step is going to be bad. really bad.
The US automobile market knew that during a great part of the 90's and 2000's : most part of the car where sold by fire sales. Next ? Many automobile constructor where sold / eaten / desapeared.
The photo market will probably discover that soon too.

One could as likely post a WSJ clip about 1st quarter USA consumer spending declies and consumer credit tightness (which are true)

Thank God, USA still doesn't understand how to live below their earnings, and keep buying all kind of stuff. IF that should change, probably that Canon would take a huge hit.

[philbaum]

i think, canikon hve flooded the market with very cheap DSLR, and that now, so many are siting in shelves like the rebels T3i for example.

The shrinking of the market is more or less due to this huge stock that need to clear, AND the fact that many people realize that a DSLR is useless if you are just snapping and don't want to bother with anykind of setting.

indeed. The creepy thing for Canikon is that can be seen in Europe too.
.

On the DSLRs shipped I wonder how much that has to do with the piled of Canikon cameras in Best Buy, Sams, etc. that look as if they have been sitting around a bit.

But... for starters, somebody needs to start realizing a meaningful and stable profit structure selling a complete mirrorless system. So far, that isn't Fuji, Sony, Panasonic, or Olympus.

And a second point: When will mirrorless system cameras start appearing at retail prices commensurate with their much lower unit production costs, compared to labor-intensive, high parts count DSLRs... BEFORE the fire sales happen? I am sympathetic with the conundrum these manufactures face committing to a long term strategy to grab market share under present market conditions. .

I keep seeing related information - kinda like more canaries that are keeling over in mindshafts. All 3 canaries are Nikon related, unfortunately, but i've also seen some comments about Canon difficulties. Its just that 75% of Nikon income comes from cameras, reportedly, so any downturn affects them more.

A. Thom Hogan: Whither Nikon? | byThom | Thom Hogan
This article was written in September 2013 and seems very prescient. The recent drop in DSLR shipments validates Hogan's comments, IMO.

B. Nikon stock hits 3 year low: Nikon Stock Hits Three Year Low, Prompts Company to Restructure

C. A post on dpreview: Nikon is going belly up first.: Pentax SLR Talk Forum: Digital Photography Review

I am no analyst at all, but i will tell you something i have noticed for almost a year, and I find this very funny because my dad and I were just talking about this a couple minutes ago.

My dad and I have been selling some F mount Nikon lenses, and it has been VERY difficult to sell them, why? People are just not calling to buy them. About a year and a half ago I could sell ANY nikon lens almost within two weeks the most. It has been many months since i haven't sold any of my lenses, as well as my dad, and i do find that very interesting. well, i actually did sell one yesterday, but after almost one whole year.

It looks like lots of people are turning away from the big and heavy DSLR systems. That is the impression i have.

Nikon could come out of this slump in a very smart fashion if they make the right decisions going forward. A clever first step would be to hire Thom Hogan as a "devil's advocate" to sit in on their strategy meetings. One of America's cleverest Presidents was Jack Kennedy. After the Bay of Pigs debacle, he instituted a new policy where there would be a devil's advocate at any future strategy meeting. Their job was to find stuff to criticize in any new strategy, rather than to bow to any consensus pressure.

I don't think DSLRs are going away any time soon, but this is a market correction in numbers. Nevertheless, Canon and Nikon have tried to protect their cash crop of DSLRs, instead of introducing new technology. IMO, if that was their strategy - its failed. It'll be interesting to see the April thru June CIPA numbers, if mirrorless continues to go up in piece sales, and DSLRs continue to drop, then thats a bad sign for Canikon.

[Clicker]

mirrorless is the new P&S

[Christine Tham]

mirrorless is the new P&S

Not really, except perhaps in Asia.

Smartphone is the new camera, period.

I have been attending Vivid every year since inception. In the first year, I would say almost half the people I meet will be carrying a DSLR (not surprising, P&S simply weren't good enough for low light photography).

This year, almost everyone is using a smartphone. DSLRs are a very small minority.

Even at Canon HQ, where I expected to find lots of DSLR users, I could have easily counted all the DSLR users in the room in one breath. The Canon girl even asked me whether I was interested in taking a selfie on my iPhone and get it printed on the spot.

Casual photographers used to whip out the camera on special occasions, like birthdays and events. Now many people tell me they can't remember when they last used their DSLR, some can't even remember where they stored it (well away from sight).

DSLRs will no longer be commodity items. There will still be a core set of DSLR users (mainly the enthusiasts) but soon they will be as rare as film photographers. Bad news for people like us is that prices will probably go up. So now is the time to buy stuff.