Originally posted by philbaum contracted a sales research company
Yes, they undoubtedly did this, because there isn't a good alternative and data that is not 100% accurate is better than no data, especially when there are jobs to justify and the internal moneychangers want numbers to back the fluff in any proposal that involves spending Sony's money.
Major retailers might provide market share figures in exchange for rebates and if the demand is high enough, market research analysts will spend a couple days with Google and a Ouija board in order to produce some marketable charts. The most reliable method to determine if a marketing research company is pulling numbers out of their butt is to compare the amount of detail to the potential they can't get reliable information. To give a market share for only the full frame camera body market in just one country on a per month basis with with a precision of two decimal places is more informative as to the reliability of Sony's "leaked" figures than the results themselves. In market research the most reliable information is always the cheapest to obtain.
The other very telling piece of information is that Sony's leadership in this highly parameterized population is only for two months. Retail sales are anything but static, if there was a truly significant trend in these results, no one would know until at least the next November and December rolled around. But that's too long to wait to prepare sales forecasts, incentive programs and marketing strategy.
Another way to look at these results is to ask the question, what happened in the marketplace that allowed Sony to overcome the two long-standing heavyweights in such a short period of time? Do purchasers of full frame cameras change brands like they change their underwear (I won't draw any parallels to PF members, because they may not be that representative of the entire market)?
Even the writer of the original article was skeptical; in the end, even if we give Sony's anonymous German representative the benefit of doubt, will Sony gaining 34% of the German FF body market for two months be enough to keep Sony selling a line of cameras that it makes in its own factories in 2021? In my "expert" opinion, the odds are better that Sony will exit the camera manufacturing business in the next five years, either by selling that division outright or licensing trademarks to another manufacturer, than Sony rising to the top of the pile in FF camera sales to stay for the next five years.
I don't have a dog in this argument, my next mirrorless camera will be given away for free with a cell phone, just like the one I currently have. I just happen to dislike the odour that always surrounds market research companies. At least political analysts sometimes get their feet held to the fire when they are wrong.