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07-08-2017, 06:48 PM   #1
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Nikon Mirrorless

Nikon’s president confirms new mirrorless camera in an interview | Nikon Rumors

I expect Nikon will do well with mirrorless. They are bleeding and they need a homerun. I don't expect hem to cut corners or cripple the body because that would be stupid. Nikon has the resources and the lens design and manufacturing to jump into the market with a splash and that is what I hope they do.

07-08-2017, 07:19 PM   #2
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Hmmm... The reference to "smartphone" users and in juxtaposition to references to mid- and high-end would seem to suggest this is meant to resurrect the low-end of the camera market.

The bigger challenge for stand-alone camera makers is the huge shift in photography both in terms of how it's made (lots of it on smartphones) and how it's consumed (lots of "free" images online). The first trend is decimating the low-end camera market and the second is eroding the pro market (there's fewer and fewer media outlets hiring pros or paying for images).

No doubt, Nikon can make a big splash by throwing millions into product R&D and marketing. But a big splash in a shrinking pond is likely to be red ink.
07-08-2017, 07:45 PM   #3
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
red ink.
They cancelled some models under development due to cost in 2015-16, another avenue is a big gamble @ this point in time.
07-08-2017, 07:47 PM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
No doubt, Nikon can make a big splash by throwing millions into product R&D and marketing. But a big splash in a shrinking pond is likely to be red ink.
Shrinking market by number of units sold, not by revenue. If they do it right, it wont be "red ink". They will focus on the upper end of the market like Fuji and Sony. This is where the money has been the last few years. The shrinking has been happening at the bottom of the market.

---------- Post added 07-08-17 at 10:00 PM ----------

Nikon doesn't have a lot of choice. If they keep doing what they have been doing they will keep loosing market share. Sony has been gaining on them rather quickly. If they continue to do what they have been doing they will end up like Pentax.

07-08-2017, 08:01 PM   #5
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"playfulness"= Nikon smartphone🙂..Red has 1!
07-08-2017, 08:26 PM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
they will end up like Pentax.
Nikon are DOOMED!
07-08-2017, 09:31 PM   #7
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Big challenge...

07-08-2017, 10:13 PM   #8
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Mirrorless M43...Panasonic/Olympus
APSC Canon/Fuji/Sony
FF Sony
MF Fuji/Hasselblad

Considering the amount of models and lenses available,WHERES Nikon fitting in?[COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added 07-09-17 at 04:15 PM ----------
07-09-2017, 01:25 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
No doubt, Nikon can make a big splash by throwing millions into product R&D and marketing. But a big splash in a shrinking pond is likely to be red ink.
Even if they could "make a big splash" they need to solve their primary problem afterwards: How to gain anything from it.

Selling a fancy new mirrorless toy that a soccer mom buys while at the same time the same mom stops buying her D760 is zero value - minus all wasted R&D.

A semi competent FF mirrorless will turn the D820/D760 models into A99II clones. Interesting for some but dead at arrival for the mass market.

Simply because it would send the message: F mount is dead as A mount.
07-09-2017, 02:03 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Even if they could "make a big splash" they need to solve their primary problem afterwards: How to gain anything from it.

Selling a fancy new mirrorless toy that a soccer mom buys while at the same time the same mom stops buying her D760 is zero value - minus all wasted R&D.

A semi competent FF mirrorless will turn the D820/D760 models into A99II clones. Interesting for some but dead at arrival for the mass market.

Simply because it would send the message: F mount is dead as A mount.
At least that soccer mom will still buy a Nikon. The risk is that if Nikon do nothing then new-generation cameras from Sony, Canon and co will be bought instead. Deal or no deal. It's not an enviable position for Nikon, perhaps, but years of milking their old DSLR franchise on the basis that Canon were the only outfit they needed to watch and match have landed Nikon in this position so they have to make the best of it. Turns out that Sony especially and Fuji were outfits Nikon needed to watch too. They must have lost sales to both.

The CIPA figures for this year haven't been too bad for cameras generally and show something of a surge in mirrorless revenues. All the camera-makers are facing the same challenges anyway. I think we just see it most acutely expressed in Nikon. That said, they are not helping themselves if they really are making garbled statements like that above - though it may be rumour crossed with Googlese.

Last edited by mecrox; 07-09-2017 at 06:35 AM.
07-09-2017, 02:06 AM   #11
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Nikon are not entirely new to mirrorless. They have the Nikon 1 mount. They just need to scale it up.
07-09-2017, 06:46 AM - 1 Like   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
At least that soccer mom will still buy a Nikon. The risk is that if Nikon do nothing then new-generation cameras from Sony, Canon and co will be bought instead. Deal or no deal. It's not an enviable position for Nikon, perhaps, but years of milking their old DSLR franchise on the basis that Canon were the only outfit they needed to watch and match have landed Nikon in this position so they have to make the best of it. Turns out that Sony especially and Fuji were outfits Nikon needed to watch too. They must have lost sales to both.

The CIPA figures for this year haven't been too bad for cameras generally and show something of a surge in mirrorless revenues. All the camera-makers are facing the same challenges anyway. I think we just see it most acutely expressed in Nikon. That said, they are not helping themselves if they really are making garbled statements like that above - though it may be rumour crossed with Googlese.
And we can draw the same conclusion for Pentax. Those who want to try a mirrorless camera will buy it from another manufacturer, often not to come back with Pentax. It's the same story as the FF repeating itself... Or just basic marketing; it's easier to keep your current customer than trying to win them back after being late in the game...
07-09-2017, 06:57 AM - 1 Like   #13
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Nikon has been developing mirrorless technology for years. The still have a huge professional user base, distribution network, and service/repair network. Nikon has a lot of advantages when it comes to launching a new mirrorless mount that neither Sony nor Fuji had.

One thing that needs to happen is that someone needs to develop sensor technology to compete with Sony.

---------- Post added 07-09-17 at 09:18 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by surfar Quote
Mirrorless M43...Panasonic/Olympus
APSC Canon/Fuji/Sony
FF Sony
MF Fuji/Hasselblad

Considering the amount of models and lenses available,WHERES Nikon fitting in?[COLOR="Silver"]

---------- Post added 07-09-17 at 04:15 PM ----------
The is only one company making FF mirrorless cameras. The market is wide open for competition.
07-09-2017, 08:22 AM - 1 Like   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Shrinking market by number of units sold, not by revenue. If they do it right, it wont be "red ink". They will focus on the upper end of the market like Fuji and Sony. This is where the money has been the last few years. The shrinking has been happening at the bottom of the market.

---------- Post added 07-08-17 at 10:00 PM ----------

Nikon doesn't have a lot of choice. If they keep doing what they have been doing they will keep loosing market share. Sony has been gaining on them rather quickly. If they continue to do what they have been doing they will end up like Pentax.
There may be revenues in high-end mirrorless but are there profits? And if a 3rd company goes head-to-head with Sony & Fuji, then will there be sufficient profits to pay off all the R&D and capex costs of developing, launching, and marketing a new system? That's what I doubt. Sure, photographers would love the choice and price war of more competition in the high-end mirrorless market but that doesn't mean Nikon's shareholders will be happy.

And when I hear "playfulness" I think that Nikon is shooting for something very different than direct competition with the "serious" mirrorless cameras offered by Sony, Fuji, Olympus, etc. The smartphone generation does not want retro (e.g., Fuji) and they don't want complexity (e.g., Sony & most DSLRs) and they don't want bulk (e.g., most "serious" ILC mirrorless). What they want is all the convenience of a smartphone (drop-dead simple shooting, automatic post-processing & fun filters, and upload to cloud/social media) with better photographic quality (bigger sensor and higher-spec lens) all in a compact body. No one has cracked that market which seems potentially much more lucrative than making a me-too mirrorless ILC.
07-09-2017, 11:43 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
There may be revenues in high-end mirrorless but are there profits? And if a 3rd company goes head-to-head with Sony & Fuji, then will there be sufficient profits to pay off all the R&D and capex costs of developing, launching, and marketing a new system? That's what I doubt. Sure, photographers would love the choice and price war of more competition in the high-end mirrorless market but that doesn't mean Nikon's shareholders will be happy.
If Nikon keeps doing what they have been doing their shareholders won't be happy either. Fuji and Sony are not entirely direct competitors anymore than Olympus is a direct competitor. If I was interested in an APS-C mirrorless I would buy Fuji. If I wanted FF mirrorless I would buy Sony. If you want MF you buy Fuji. Yes the A6xxx series and the Fuji X-series are in the same segment, but they appeal to very different users.

With the technology of mirrorless moving forward and solving a lot of the problems of previous bodies, mirrorless is going to appeal to more people. The reference to the "smartphone generation" is more of a reference to people who started taking pictures and composing with an LED screen. This generation has no attachment to the OVF like previous generations.

Obviously Nikon has to do it right. They can't mail it in like they did with the Nikon Df. What is obvious is that if Nikon does nothing they will be fall behind Sony in market share and continue to bleed. Sony still has a long climb ahead and Nikon has a lot of advantages, but they are moving in opposite directions right now.
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