[Jonathan Mac]

I think Fuji are over-estimating the ability of themselves and Sony to overcome the main reason that people buy Canon or Nikon at all - the name on the camera.

DSLR/mirrorless camera owners who look into specs, pros and cons etc are in the minority when compared to those who choose based on "everyone knows Canon/Nikon are the best" or those who just swallow what the ignorant salesperson feeds them.

[Rondec]

I know this isn't a thread about the K-1 -- far from it -- but the biggest limitations on the K-1 have to do with buffer size and auto focus speed when it comes to shooting a wedding. The whole 20 frames per second thing isn't important though. SLRs can operate "fast enough" for most folks, even pros.

The question in my mind is if mirrorless cameras will eventually be cheaper to produce and so consumers will get more bang for their buck shooting them versus SLRs.

But it really isn't top end cameras that bring new photographers into the fold. It is entry level cameras. You can by a T5 with a kit lens on Amazon for 330 dollars right now. Not a very good camera, but cheap. But that is the sort of "gateway drug" that gets folks started in the EOS mount and keeps them going. Most people who buy one of those cameras will seldom use it and will never get another lens, but those who do will continue to purchase Canon and if they get bitten by the photography bug they will continue on that path.

Overall, at this point, it is hard for me to see one version of ILCs going away soon. It seems as though the most likely thing is that they will coexist and (hopefully) people continue to get better cameras for the same dollar spent. Certainly Canon and Nikon are probably afraid of Sony, but I don't think Fuji strikes much fear in the hearts of anyone.

Is there anything bigger than Internet muscles?

[Lord Lucan]

I think Fuji are over-estimating the ability of themselves and Sony to overcome the main reason that people buy Canon or Nikon at all - the name on the camera.

While we know that Fuji has an excellent reputation in the photographic world (and other fields), the name itself is not a good marketing point; it is too Japanesey for many people's liking, even though most of the leading camera brands are Japanese anyway. That is why Nikon, Canon and Pentax changed their names some time ago to their current westernised ones (from Nippon Kogaku, Kwanon, and Asahi respectively).

[mecrox]

This information cannot be traced back to a credible source or confirmed in some way, only back to a typical camera rumour site which cites ”a source”. So far as I can tell anyway. But by the time the material has passed along the internet a bit, it acquires a spurious validity. In reality I think it’s best seen as fake news until shown otherwise. As a talking point it may have some merit but it seems darn far-fetched to me. I doubt many expect Canon’s marketshare to halve. In fact if Canon make a good fist of anything mirrorless they introduce their marketshare may easily increase ... at the expense of ... Fuji among others.

[Rondec]

It just seems as though people buy mostly based on price and availability. In most of the US, Fuji doesn't really have either (although they are probably a little more available than Pentax, they aren't nearly as available as Canon/Nikon/Sony). I don't think for most people mirrorless versus SLR thing makes a difference. Oddly, a lot of new photographers seem most comfortable composing with the rear LCD, with camera held at arm's length away from them.

I don't know if Fuji really said it, but it feels like the sort of prophecy like when a high end athlete "guarantees" a win. We remember the situations (like Joe Namath) where the team succeeds, but not so much the ones where they fall short.

[surfar]

I don't know if Fuji really said it

Highly UNLIKELY, fake news...the link to FAKE NEWS is in post 26.

This information cannot be traced back to a credible source or confirmed in some way

Exactly, not newsworthy on May 4th...and certainly not worth anyone commenting on like F stoppers have,...They should put a N after the F!

[Kunzite]

This information cannot be traced back to a credible source or confirmed in some way, only back to a typical camera rumour site which cites ”a source”.

You're absolutely right; and even the Fstoppers' article isn't too optimistic about this being legit.
Maybe someone made it up.

[TaoMaas]

If Fuji did predict this...and I have my doubts about that...it might be worth remembering that they have experience in stealing significant market shares from photography giants so maybe they're seeing something we're not.

[Winder]

A bunch of micro-decisions will decide market share in upcoming years. FPS will be important to limited number of photographers. Allowing owners of current lenses to keep using those lenses will be important - Canon most likely has upper hand there. Providing services to bottom rung will be important - most likely that means providing good high ISO JPEGs, which Pentax shines at if they can just get attention.

The technology that determines the FPS also determines the AF speed. The A9 sensor can read the scene fast enough to adjust AF 60 times per-second. Even people who don't need 20fps will benefit and want the faster and more accurate AF.

---------- Post added 05-14-18 at 01:41 PM ----------

If Fuji did predict this...and I have my doubts about that...it might be worth remembering that they have experience in stealing significant market shares from photography giants so maybe they're seeing something we're not.

I think we are on the edge of a pretty big shift. When stacked sensors like what are in the A9 come down in price (and they will), and you can get an A9 for $2,000 its going to be hard for DSLRs to justify the added cost of an OVF, mirror box, and mechanical shutter.

Right now the A7III delivers more than the Canon 5DIV for less money. Sony is going after Canon on all fronts. There are a lot of Canon shooters asking "Why would I buy a 5DIV?" Guys using the 85L (F/1.2) are getting better results using that lens on a Sony body due to eye AF and the razor thin DoF. When I was looking at buying the A9, I read a review where a Canon wedding shooter was getting better performance from his 85L in low-light (less hunting/more accurate) adapted to an A9 body than on his 5DIV.

[kooks]

I know this isn't a thread about the K-1 -- far from it -- but the biggest limitations on the K-1 have to do with buffer size and auto focus speed when it comes to shooting a wedding. The whole 20 frames per second thing isn't important though. SLRs can operate "fast enough" for most folks, even pros.

The question in my mind is if mirrorless cameras will eventually be cheaper to produce and so consumers will get more bang for their buck shooting them versus SLRs.

But it really isn't top end cameras that bring new photographers into the fold. It is entry level cameras.

You are way more than right about the buffer in the K1.. is not about the fps.. its about how long can the camera hold that fps.. and hate to say it but in the K1 that buffer holding sucks...

Right now the A7iii is way more camera than many cameras in the market for $2000, perhaps (but depends of the photography style) better thant he K1 in many aspects.. ofcourse the K1 have a bigger MP sensor, astrotracer, pixelshift. and many other key features that we love.. but those features are too nichy.. are not ment to a general usage, just for photographers that will eventually use the key features.

IMO only thing that saves Pentax (general shooters) at this time from Sony stealing the clients is that Pentax lenses dont work AF in Sony bodies, but IMO, when that changes ( if it happens at all) many many Pentax shooters will fly to Sony fast

K1 mk2 was a bad move, Pentax did not needed that kind of upgrade, it needed a body that could be more versatile than the original K1... and ofcourse.. lenses.

[RobA_Oz]

You are way more than right about the buffer in the K1.. is not about the fps.. its about how long can the camera hold that fps.. and hate to say it but in the K1 that buffer holding sucks...

No argument there.

Right now the A7iii is way more camera than many cameras in the market for $2000, perhaps (but depends of the photography style) better thant he K1 in many aspects.. ofcourse the K1 have a bigger MP sensor, astrotracer, pixelshift. and many other key features that we love.. but those features are too nichy.. are not ment to a general usage, just for photographers that will eventually use the key features.

Not much to disagree with there, but if Sony, let alone Nikon or Canon had all or many of those features, they would be mainstream, not niche, and we’d probably never hear the end of it in some forums.

IMO only thing that saves Pentax (general shooters) at this time from Sony stealing the clients is that Pentax lenses dont work AF in Sony bodies, but IMO, when that changes ( if it happens at all) many many Pentax shooters will fly to Sony fast

We’ve been hearing that for most of the time I’ve been a member here (though it used to be to Nikon), and one day that may come true, but not just yet, I think. Some will, but I doubt it will be “many many”. Anyway, there’s lots of older but good Pentax lenses floating around that would probably be mangled by Canon shooters if Sony users didn’t pick them up.

K1 mk2 was a bad move, Pentax did not needed that kind of upgrade, it needed a body that could be more versatile than the original K1... and ofcourse.. lenses.

More lenses would be good, but let’s be serious: the K1ii was never intended to be the Next Big Thing from Pentax (though many other sites and a few people here treated it like it was). It’s a half-life refresh. Those who can use the new features won’t be saying they weren’t needed.

[clackers]

Highly UNLIKELY, fake news...the link to FAKE NEWS is in post 26.

I know a couple of people who own Fujis, and of course they're advertised all over the place, but almost never see them in the wild.

As impossible as it is, I'd really like to see actual sales figures, Surfar, not cherry picked sentences from the company's annual report about this product or that.

[surfar]

I'd really like to see actual sales figures,

While i'm looking i'll get you the Pentax ones too!

[clackers]

While i'm looking i'll get you the Pentax ones too!

You know they're not available from the manufacturers, Surfar. Deliberately. They would disappoint shareholders in this market.

We know and love Pentax for being a niche brand, it's interesting if Fuji fans say they're more than that.

I'd like to see the proof. Doesn't match what the pros are using, or the sports, landscape, wildlife portrait, wedding enthusiasts I run into on and shoot with on the workshop circuit. Canikon with recent Sony uptake, and some m43 people who always look unhappy.

You used to pump up the Fuji MF offering, the Ricoh exec said 645 sales took an introductory hit then restored themselves. Doesn't sound like grabbing marketshare to me.

[surfar]

Fuji fans

They dont venture to deep Meckico,thats why "you" never see them.

Their figures for their total imaging division can be calculated though...just take 30% of their total turnover of Fujifilm.
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