To the whole question of whether it benefits a company to have third party lenses available for it, it probably does, but that doesn't mean that they want them available. From Pentax (or Nikon or Canon)'s perspective it has to look like every lens Sigma sells in their mount is lost revenue. Certainly it is good simply to have people buying your camera bodies, but you want to make your R and D back on your lenses too. For sure, Pentax isn't going to pay Sigma to turn out its lenses in K mount. Much more likely would be to expand current relationship with Tamron to cover holes in the line up -- super zoom or whatever. In that case, Tamron has no risk as Pentax pays them up front for each lens manufactured and Pentax gets some revenue off of each lens sold.
Originally posted by mecrox
I see FF as a potentially orphan format, in fact, despite the current furore. If I were a landscape or high-end art photographer, I would go straight to medium format. If I were after sports or wildlife, I would head for APS-C or in some cases even M43. For general knockabout stuff, a sensor as small as the M43 one is in fact perfectly fine and will deliver good, publishable results in good light or even quite bad light if IBIS is engaged. Of course this is easier said than done because the big manufacturers are trying to force formats on people, so lens choice, AF questions and professional support start to crop up because they are reserved for some models/formats only. Still, strip it all out and that doesn't leave all that much for which FF is a must-have rather than just a preference for the vast majority of customers.
I guess you are serious, but I think you misread the market pretty badly. Medium format is still very expensive because you have to consider not only the price of the body, but the price of lenses too. Buying into the Fuji GFX plus a couple of lenses is going to run you 7500 dollars, easily. And with that investment, you get significantly less functionality (auto focus, auto focus tracking, frame rate, etc) than you would get with a camera like the K-1 and DFA 24-70 and a couple of older primes. The biggest reason full frame is here to stay is the large library of lenses that exist for it.
I really don't see any of the current sensor sizes going away. It makes sense to use smaller sensors for things like wildlife. At the same time, finding that you can use iso 12K and have pretty good results on a camera like the K-1 II is eye opening.
That said, I do think smaller sensor cameras are bound to be squeezed a bit in the future. If you can buy a full frame camera for 1500 dollars or less, it is going to be hard for four thirds or APS-C cameras to sell much above that unless they offer some amazing functionality (like the D500 does). Sensors for all sizes seem to have plateaued a bit and clearly even Panasonic sees the writing on the wall, which is why they are launching a new full frame camera, looking forward to the Olympics, rather than another micro four thirds camera with added functionality. I am sure Olympus is looking at options too as I imagine their sales are a little stagnant at this point and they need new options for the photographers who use their gear.
---------- Post added 10-24-18 at 06:20 AM ----------
Originally posted by biz-engineer
I agree with the cases you wrote here , but I don't find it given an "big picture" view of what formats are about. It's camera format about how the final print compete with each other. For news papers and magazine type size printing and displaying, including for sports, full frame is adequate, (also for sport, high performance AF and bust rate and high iso are more key success factors , resolution requirement comes last) and for no sport apsc and micro 4/3 would be just fine. For large prints, commercial prints, fine art deco prints, full frame prints don't compete favorably with medium format prints, slow auto-focus and long lenses are the least of the concerns for medium format type applications. And the how those camera systems are specified seems to be matching well with the requirements.
If you look at the "professional" market it is mostly made up of people who shoot things like weddings and portraiture. The landscape pros are extremely few and far between and while a lot of people shoot landscape, few of them just do that as they would be living in a homeless shelter if they did. Journalism as a photography market is in bad shape. I've read plenty of stories where journalists were instructed to start using their smart phones to take photos for stories and plenty of stories that are on the internet just use stock images. News papers are just in bad shape and odds are they are giving their journalists older cameras with kit lenses rather than expense out new gear.
I am sure that the majority of sales for gear actually come from amateurs and the question there isn't what they "need" but what they want and can afford. I'm sure medium format isn't going away and will slowly come down in price, but with the lenses priced where they are and the lack of general functionality, I just don't see it growing a huge amount either.