[Christine Tham]

Okay, you may hate the guy, but it's an interesting read:
NIKON AND CANON WILL BE MARGINALIZED IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, SO SAY THE TEA LEAVES

So Trey has switched from his D800 to using the NEX7 and NEX6 exclusively.

When I met him last year, he hasn't quite made the switch yet, but he was definitely liking his NEX7.

You should see his face when I borrowed his NEX7 and VG 35 f1.2 and then pretended to drop it - that's when I knew he really loved that camera. I showed him my brand new NEX6 carrying the same lens and I'm glad he bought a NEX6 as well.

[jogiba]

Go to the 19:44 mark to see Sergey Brin ( Google co-founder with net worth of $25 Billion) showing his Sony NEX-7 with 18-200 zoom to Trey Ratcliff :

You Tube

You Tube

[kenafein]

I have little doubt that this is true, however, I think that the DSLR(or larger cameras like the new A-mounts) will be around for a long time in the enthusiast and pro world. Nikon and Canon have the time and resources to catch up to Sony. If they don't adapt then they don't deserve to survive(in the camera industry).

[Winder]

It depends on the type of photography that you do. Mirrorless still has a way to go before they can replace the DSLR for many applications. I think it will take more than 5 years.

[bobmaxja]

Ipad was launch in 2009 less than 5 years ago.
What happening to PC in the last 2 years?
PC sales drop 9% just in the last quarter

Nothing different for camera, people looking at mobility.

Yes DSLR will continue to sell but a new trend is coming, should we say a tsunami.

[Nesster]

It depends on the type of photography that you do. Mirrorless still has a way to go before they can replace the DSLR for many applications. I think it will take more than 5 years.

Then again, we're not talking 'the way of the dodo' but rather when the DSLR becomes a marginal force in the general market. Arguably the mirrorless cameras can already do most of what the regular customer needs, and at a lower cost + size, which does make for a good selling proposition.

The SLR while becoming market dominant did not completely kill off range finders, bellows cameras, and the like. The smartphone seems to be killing off the simple stand-alone P&S though, just as it has killed off the stand-alone simple cell phone.

[Winder]

Ipad was launch in 2009 less than 5 years ago.
What happening to PC in the last 2 years?
PC sales drop 9% just in the last quarter

Nothing different for camera, people looking at mobility.

Yes DSLR will continue to sell but a new trend is coming, should we say a tsunami.

Pentax is DOOMED.

[bobmaxja]

I never said that . I feel that Canon and Nikon are in the worst situation.

[kenafein]

I never said that . I feel that Canon and Nikon are in the worst situation.

I think the problem is Canon and Nikon are not taking mirrorless seriously. The EOS-M was a failure. They didn't release lenses and it was a lackluster camera. It took them a year to come up with a fix for the autofocus. People were really excited to see Canon enter the market, the momentum was theirs, but they flopped big time. Nikon released a camera system that, while good, had a sensor that was too small and a price that was too large, again not serious. Still, the mirrorless cameras aren't selling all that well either. Mirror-less has it's own hurdles to overcome. People look at them like they're expensive point and shoots, by default, inferior to a DSLR. They seem too expensive. Many people are buying heavily discounted closeout models for both mirrorless and DSLR cameras. I think the market is saturated with both, and the old stuff is still good enough, so why upgrade? I know people that are still happy with their D40s. The money, as Leica knows, is in the high end stuff. Canon and Nikon don't need to sell entry level models to people that will only ever use the kit lens. Maybe mirrorless cameras will subsume the entire entry level market. There is no reason Nikon and Canon can't muscle their way in, but, as history shows, these large, entrenched companies often resist change until they're bankrupt. We shall see. I expect only great things in the future, even if today's players aren't around. Nikon and Canon do have a lot going for them. Name recognition, flash system, size, expertise.

[Winder]

I never said that . I feel that Canon and Nikon are in the worst situation.

Pentax is in the same boat they are. Pentax just has a smaller seat. Canon and Nikon have a stronger, more complete system with long history of professional support. If the market shifts they will throw all their marketing and support behind a new mirrorless system and make the change just like Canon did when they moved to EF lenses and autofocus.

At some point Ricoh will need to develop a mirroless mount system (new mount). Personally I hope Pentax give us a digital Mamiya 7 II Camera Body 215-020 B&H Photo Video with 5 lenses.

[kenafein]

Canon and Nikon have a stronger, more complete system with long history of professional support. If the market shifts they will throw all their marketing and support behind a new mirrorless system and make the change just like Canon did when they moved to EF lenses and autofocus.

That would make sense, but bigger companies have failed to capitalize on market swings. I hope they stick around, but I also hope the smaller players grab a bigger slice.

[Rondec]

I see mirrorless more attacking the lower end SLR market and the point and shoot market. There are some who shoot with f2.8 zooms who are switching to mirrorless, but they are a lot fewer than the others. The ergonomics of decent sized lens and tiny camera aren't great.

[rawr]

I was at a series of large public events in the last week in Sydney (The International Fleet Review). I have never seen so many cameras out in public before, at night and during the day.

Aside from gazillions of point-and-shoots and phones/iPads at every vantage point, I also saw many, many thousands of traditional DSLR's in the hands of amateur and pro photogs. While I did see some mirrorless in use, there was no sign of traditional DSLR's losing favour. Correct or not, people still see traditional DSLR's as the best option for capturing high quality images and/or important moments.

On a related note, I was also rather stunned to see the number of amateur photogs and tourists walking around with high-end gear (5D3's, D800's everywhere). Economy must be doing well.

[Clicker]

I got my NEX 6 sometime last summer or a little after, tomorrow is the first time i'm going to use it, i still need my DSLR for quick action sports. I'm going to be trying it at a sporting event but it more of a exhibition/social event and i prefer a smaller inconspicuous camera for this and i have been using my Fujifilm X for these sort of things.

That said, i still need the DSLR for capturing action sports in low lit arenas, Yes it's possible to use mirrorless but only at certain angles and at a lower frame rate. I know there are some who snark at "spray and pray" but for certain sports that is what is needed and especially when you get a higher "keeper" ratio in those conditions...ie contact sports 12fps vs 6fps, a blink could lose you a cover.

So in keeping with the thread, i would say, the DSLR Canon/Nikon will not be marginalized as said.

[Winder]

I see mirrorless more attacking the lower end SLR market and the point and shoot market.

But with $1,000 dollar cameras like the GX-7 and $3,000 bodies like the coming Sony A7 line, mirrorless are moving up the market.

I have yet to see a mirrorless that can track a bride and groom running back down the isle after the ceremony. Olympus is getting close, but they are not there yet. The K-5 can't even track something as simple as the bride and groom running with the level of consistency most professionals find acceptable. I hope the K-3 can bring Pentax to that level.