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10-18-2013, 07:46 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by Adam Quote
I think that small-sensor compacts will be annihilated, but cameras with larger sensors (targeted mostly at people who are in to photography) will definitely stick around, as their performance will still be higher than that of smartphones thanks to the laws of physics and optics, which time won't change.

Heh, but you can't possibly say there will not be tech advances or designs that couldn't "work around" that....even as falconeye mentioned.

10-18-2013, 09:55 AM   #17
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The other side of the coin is that I see a general decline in what magazines deem acceptable photo quality to publish.

Even Instagram has become "artsy" acceptable. When I look at a car magazines these days I can see that some of the shots are being done with the likes of the iphone and Samsung Galaxy S4- this cuts down on their costs.

I believe one could easily publish to National Geographic in say the travel journalism side, with the Sony RX100 and similar cams these days.

Considering what I can acheive with my RX100 these new FF will probably be mind blowing.
10-18-2013, 10:02 AM - 1 Like   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Yes and no.

It is all related to light gathering capability and this is total lens surface. A smart phone with a lens array on its back (think of 9, 16, 25 or 36 ... lens/sensor modules on the back) can easily make up for its crop factor and match full frame performance.

May not happen tommorrow, but sooner or later dedicated cameras will be a niche like high end audio is today.
Recently a tourist asked me to take his picture with his tablet. Holding this large view of the sidewalk in my hands seemed like a surreal experience - i suppose from looking at these relatively small 3" LCDs for so many years. Why couldn't the tablet contain, say 6 1"-sensors spread around on the surface, that have their results stitched together in camera or out? Wouldn't have to be that expensive and sure, there will be limitations. The only thing we can be sure of, is that we are in for some interesting changes in the photographic world.

10-18-2013, 10:47 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Recently a tourist asked me to take his picture with his tablet. Holding this large view of the sidewalk in my hands seemed like a surreal experience - i suppose from looking at these relatively small 3" LCDs for so many years. Why couldn't the tablet contain, say 6 1"-sensors spread around on the surface, that have their results stitched together in camera or out? Wouldn't have to be that expensive and sure, there will be limitations. The only thing we can be sure of, is that we are in for some interesting changes in the photographic world.
I am sure that's on the way. I remember the first time I saw someone using a tablet as a photographic tool. I was taking pictures of my daughter, with my K-5, while she was on a Pony ride. This guy really got into it. He was, knee on the ground, holding it like a camera, spraying shots. With the size of these devices, I imagine there is a lot of potential in a lens array.



Pelican Imaging's 16-lens array camera coming to smartphones next year

10-18-2013, 05:46 PM   #20
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End of Nikon?

QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
have their results stitched together
Just a side note ...
Lens arrays typically don't act as a multishot device. They rather all take the same shot, all with a slightly different parallax error. This allows the camera to combine them as if it would have a much larger aperture (or smaller crop factor, whatever you prefer). A 3x3 array reduces the crop by a factor 3.
The weak point of this (besides possible concerns about quality of bokeh) is diffraction: DoF and noise are that of a much "larger" camera, however, diffraction effects aren't reduced. Example: a camera with crop 3 and F/2.4 optics (like Nokia 808 smartphone) and a 3x3 array of them would have DoF and noise of an F/2.4 full frame camera, but diffraction like an F/7.2 FF camera. Obviously quite doable and useful. But can't be stretched that much further ...

Last edited by falconeye; 10-18-2013 at 05:53 PM.
10-22-2013, 08:58 AM   #21
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I don't think printers will be wiped out of homes and offices. I'm selling stuff on ebay (not photographic related) and without a printer I'd have to write down every shipping slip : / No thank you. There is also the travel industry, they eliminated real tickets years ago, now you receive your ticket via email and print it. There is so much exemple to mention, No mister, the printers won't disappear, on the contrary they are so cheap that everybody has one.


10-22-2013, 11:41 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by Helios 84-5 Quote
There is also the travel industry, they eliminated real tickets years ago, now you receive your ticket via email and print it.

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You can also have them scan a barcode on your phone, no printing necessary. Sometimes printers are necessary, but less and less so. I print most of my eBay slips in the office. I have my prints printed at Costco. I would love to live in a printer free home, but I'm not quite there yet.

10-22-2013, 12:43 PM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by kenafein Quote
You can also have them scan a barcode on your phone, no printing necessary. Sometimes printers are necessary, but less and less so. I print most of my eBay slips in the office. I have my prints printed at Costco. I would love to live in a printer free home, but I'm not quite there yet.
I like to print my own photos for decoration. I find the print quality of my Canon Pixma pro 100 far exceeds what the local walgreens, walmart, meijers, etc can do. I otherwise agree though, i have used my cell phone to scan barcodes the last few times i traveled and many times I found storing things digitally to be a lot more convenient then having folders, filing cabinets, paper, etc. Ive started to see people hang up digital picture frames too, which in theory could replace my photo printer.
10-22-2013, 04:08 PM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by kenafein Quote
I am sure that's on the way. I remember the first time I saw someone using a tablet as a photographic tool. I was taking pictures of my daughter, with my K-5, while she was on a Pony ride. This guy really got into it. He was, knee on the ground, holding it like a camera, spraying shots. With the size of these devices, I imagine there is a lot of potential in a lens array.

I think the advantage of a large tablet is to help in framing the image. Plus with the amount of area avail. on a tablet, it should allow interesting things with the optics such as you and falk described.

Pelican Imaging's 16-lens array camera coming to smartphones next year
QuoteOriginally posted by falconeye Quote
Just a side note ...
Lens arrays typically don't act as a multishot device. They rather all take the same shot, all with a slightly different parallax error. This allows the camera to combine them as if it would have a much larger aperture (or smaller crop factor, whatever you prefer). A 3x3 array reduces the crop by a factor 3.
The weak point of this (besides possible concerns about quality of bokeh) is diffraction: DoF and noise are that of a much "larger" camera, however, diffraction effects aren't reduced. Example: a camera with crop 3 and F/2.4 optics (like Nokia 808 smartphone) and a 3x3 array of them would have DoF and noise of an F/2.4 full frame camera, but diffraction like an F/7.2 FF camera. Obviously quite doable and useful. But can't be stretched that much further ...
This all sounds good!!! I think with the trend towards manufacturers going to more powerful processors, improved photographic results should occur. Sony's got this neat trick where they take 5 or 6 images, at 1/500sec and at high iso, and stack them internally to produce one noise free image. Its called the Handheld Twilight mode and unfortunately only produces a jpeg result. I don't think the technology is particularly new, its like just stacking images to remove noise. But with more powerful processors, i see future cameras being not only able to stack photos but also produce them in RAW. Such a camera would be more desirable to me than the current crop of high pixel/high noise at high iso cams. Also ones that can produce a panoramic image with one shot and multiple sensors. Eliminates the problems of stitiching images together which have some movement in them. Sony has its faults but they are bold with their innovations.

I've seen a few comments wondering about the K3 not having the shot life of its predecessors. Could that be the result of more power hungry processors??? pros and cons to most decisions.
10-22-2013, 04:28 PM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
i see future cameras being not only able to stack photos but also produce them in RAW.
That's not as easy. Processed images (stacked, hdr, etc.) can only be stored as so-called linear RAW which is an option for DNG (not for most vendor RAWs though). Linear RAW is about 3 times as large as plain RAW and requires larger buffers in the process of creation.
10-23-2013, 04:30 PM   #26
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Back to the original topic...


Nikon is DOOMED


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10-23-2013, 05:17 PM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clicker Quote
shaolen here's Nikon's 2013 annual report, it's more than just cameras.

http://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/ar/pdf/ar2013/13annual_e.pdf
Very interesting, thanks! Interesting how they view the smartphone camera improvements as a positive for dslr market. (Saying that more people will become interested in photography because they can take better pictures with their smartphones) And, presumably then become interested in buying a dslr.
10-23-2013, 07:59 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by MarkJerling Quote
...
Interesting how they view the smartphone camera improvements as a positive for dslr market. (Saying that more people will become interested in photography because they can take better pictures with their smartphones) And, presumably then become interested in buying a dslr.
My nephew, recently graduated from college, has used his smart phone as his camera for some time. He seems interested in photography because I see him trying to do more than point and shoot and asks me lots of questions. Now he's earning some money and wants more than a phone camera. He seems to fit those Nikon market expectations except for one small detail. He wants a APS-C mirrorless! And the less it looks like a DSLR the better he seems to like them.
10-24-2013, 07:07 AM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by stevebrot Quote
Back to the original topic...


Nikon is DOOMED


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They are all doomed, except Pentax.
Nikon cuts full-year profit target as mirrorless cameras lose their shine | Reuters
QuoteQuote:
Nikon Corp cut its full-year profit due to disappointing demand for mirrorless cameras that were once seen as a revolutionary invention that could save the industry from the threat of increasingly advanced smartphone cameras.

Nikon executives said that sales were particularly disappointing in the United States and Europe for mirrorless cameras, which are lighter and cheaper than single-lens reflex (SLR) devices and offer higher image quality than other compact models.

"In Europe and the U.S. the ratio of mirrorless to SLRs hasn't grown at all, unlike in Asia, where it's quite popular with women because it's light. We had higher expectations for other regions," said Yasuyuki Okamoto, president of the imaging company. "But people who like cameras tend to just go for SLRs, even though they're very heavy."

Japanese camera makers were hoping that mirrorless cameras, which work with a sensors, could pick up the slack as compact camera sales continue to slide as consumers are increasingly shifting to high-resolution smartphone cameras.

But so far, they have only seen strong mirrorless sales at home, where shipments grew 16.8 percent in the six months to June, while dropping 18.5 percent globally, according to data from the Camera and Imaging Products Association (CIPA) of Japan. Compact camera shipments plummeted 48 percent.

Rival Olympus Corp said on Thursday that its sales of its signature mirrorless model, the PEN, had fallen 12 percent in the first quarter, below its expectations.

Okamoto warned that Nikon may have to rethink its product mix in other regions as falling prices for mirrorless cameras are pinching margins and hurting the interchangeable lens division even as SLR sales remained strong. It cut its full-year forecast for the division to 6.55 million units from 7.1 million.
10-24-2013, 07:08 AM   #30
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Olympus pins future hopes on mirrorless format | Reuters
QuoteQuote:
To stem the red ink on its loss-making camera division, Olympus Corp has decided to rely on a format that so far has been a flop outside of its home turf in Japan.

The company on Tuesday released the "OM-D E-M1", a mirrorless model Olympus says is the first of its kind to compete on quality with traditional single-lens reflex (SLR) cameras.

Olympus is now hoping the E-M1, priced for the pro market at 145,000 yen ($1,500) for the body alone, will help it boost mirrorless and SLR sales by 24 percent to 7.3 million units to allow its camera business to finally break even for the first time in four years.

The new model is the successor to Olympus's E-5, its last flagship SLR released in 2010. Executives are saying there are no current plans to develop more SLRs and the new camera likely signals the company's exit from a market that is dominated by Canon Inc and Nikon Corp.

The E-M1 illustrates Olympus's dedication to the mirrorless format, heralded at its inception as a happy marriage between the size of a compact camera and the picture quality of an SLR. But the format has so far failed to connect with consumers outside of Japan, with most seeing it as an awkward compromise.

Most consumers prefer smartphones for taking snaps when weight is an issue and opt for pricier SLRs when quality is a priority.

Research company IDC originally projected the mirrorless segment to grow 31 percent in 2013 and to more than triple by 2017. But dramatically poor sales earlier this year prompted the company to change its forecast to a 1.2 percent drop this year and expansion of just 24 percent by 2017.
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