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10-28-2013, 04:36 AM   #16
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The quality of the viewing medium determines what is needed from the capture technology end and my guess is that all DSLR's, including MILCs, will become irrelevant for a few years and then only the smallest tech will go on to survive that matches the output requirements. It doesn't matter what any of us think about this as it's the reality of what is required to fill a need that is going to determine the medium. The notion that APS-C is going away in favour of FF is ridiculous. Just think about the way we listen to music these days (or the way we watch movies) in comparison to what it was like only a few years ago and you'll get the picture. None of us really has a single clue about the way this industry will look in 10 or 20 years.

10-28-2013, 06:27 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by bossa Quote
The quality of the viewing medium determines what is needed from the capture technology end and my guess is that all DSLR's, including MILCs, will become irrelevant for a few years and then only the smallest tech will go on to survive that matches the output requirements. It doesn't matter what any of us think about this as it's the reality of what is required to fill a need that is going to determine the medium. The notion that APS-C is going away in favour of FF is ridiculous. Just think about the way we listen to music these days (or the way we watch movies) in comparison to what it was like only a few years ago and you'll get the picture. None of us really has a single clue about the way this industry will look in 10 or 20 years.
You make entirely too much sense. I'm switching back and forth between my smaller MILC and my faster Pentax all the time. I enjoy my Nex more, not sure if its because its newer or much more fun to walk around with. But when i need the picture for the theatre i work for, or need it for a show i'm doing, then i'll use the Pentax. I don't have a smart phone, but the Nex has a pretty competent panorama. It has some limitations though. So often i'll do a quick pano with the Nex and if i like the way it looks, i'll do it again with the dslr and end up with a larger more flexible file to work with.

One thing i differ from you on, i don't see any need for the DSLRs to go away. It all depends on whether there's enough sales (demand) for the product and it will simply continue as long as the sales will support the production and sales effort. But its amazing to me how some manufacturers like Nikon have convinced themselves that we APS owners are just going to discard our cameras when FF becomes available and flock to their sales tables. I think Thom Hogan identified that problem long before any of the other pundits picked up on it. I can't say i wouldn't like to have a FF camera, if only to try it out, but there's no way that I "need" to have it.
10-28-2013, 06:33 AM   #18
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My situation is similar to Philbaum's. I have literally switched back and forth between NEX and Pentax twice this year. I now have both and it looks like the NEX will be the one that finally goes although I very much like the weight and size for the hiking I frequently do. However, the Pentax lenses and DSLR features win out. The special NEX features like sweep panorama are neat but not much used. The app feature is of limited value. The DSLR is just more serious and to the point - quality photographs.
10-28-2013, 06:35 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
... I just can't believe that all the folks currently buying K50s and T4i cameras are going to suddenly migrate either to full frame cameras or to camera phones. Seems crazy to predict that. ...
The problem is not that they will quit using DSLRs. Rather, the problem is that many of them will quit buying DSLRs unless and until their current model stops working.

The surge in DSLR sales was driven both by new buyers and by replacement buyers who found that the newer models offered a compelling reason to upgrade. Sales in both of these categories have slowed down. The new-buyer category has been hit by the fact that market penetration has now reached the point where a large share of potential customers already own a DSLR, at least in the developed economies. The best hope for new sales in this category resides in the emerging economies, which may help to salvage sales. "Upgrade" sales have been hit by the slowdown in innovation that occurs as a product matures. (PC sales have been hit by this same phenomenon.) For the most part the newer models have provided few compelling reasons to upgrade. Many people now own a DSLR that they consider "good enough". They are most likely to buy a new camera if it does something their old camera does not. For example, they might buy a tiny camera with excellent image quality--like the Ricoh GR or the Nikon A--because of the improved portability. They buy it to supplement their DSLR. Or FF afficionados might buy a Sony A7R because it is so much lighter than current FF DSLRs.

Camera makers will do fine if they can continue to innovate at a rapid rate, giving people "something new" that they do not already have but really want. Canon seems to be struggling in this regard. Sony seems to be doing well with their tiny mirrorless cameras. It seems that Pentax may also have a winner with the K-3. I'm optimistic that Ricoh will provide the R&D budget necessary to survive the maturing of the DSLR market.

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10-28-2013, 06:55 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by bossa Quote
The notion that APS-C is going away in favour of FF is ridiculous. Just think about the way we listen to music these days (or the way we watch movies) in comparison to what it was like only a few years ago and you'll get the picture. None of us really has a single clue about the way this industry will look in 10 or 20 years.

Well...

Actually, a few years ago Futureshop and Bestbuy were filled with 20 brands of these :

http://g-ec2.images-amazon.com/images/G/01/electronics/detail-page/B00137ERVC_1.jpg

I myself have 6 different players - and even an MD player.

Now, there are only iPad, and Sony walkman - but the rest of it is through your mobile phone.
The other thing thats prob gonna die fast is netbook now. They are neither laptop, nor tablet.

The question is not about the technology. its about price point and perception, and what everyone is buying. APS-C is mostly cheap these days, and is considered consumer technology. Well, that market is buying iPhones.
We are still buying APS-C, sure, and we love pentax - but if the general consumers doesnt, then the product will die anyway.
10-28-2013, 07:51 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by bossa Quote
The quality of the viewing medium determines what is needed from the capture technology end and my guess is that all DSLR's, including MILCs, will become irrelevant for a few years and then only the smallest tech will go on to survive that matches the output requirements. It doesn't matter what any of us think about this as it's the reality of what is required to fill a need that is going to determine the medium. The notion that APS-C is going away in favour of FF is ridiculous. Just think about the way we listen to music these days (or the way we watch movies) in comparison to what it was like only a few years ago and you'll get the picture. None of us really has a single clue about the way this industry will look in 10 or 20 years.
I rather agree with the view put by Michael Reichmann on Luminous Landscape when talking of PDN PhotoPlus in New York and the newly announced Nikon retro FF:
QuoteQuote:
"When companies start appealing to past glories you know that there's a fork in the road coming. ... DSLRs will diminish in market share and likely will become a niche product for wealthy enthusiasts. Mainstream enthusiasts will move to so-called mirrorless system cameras and the mass market will happily take pictures with their smartphones while uploading them in real-time to Facebook."
He goes on to compare Canon and Nikon with General Motors: vast edifices which, if they do not change, will be toppled by nimbler outfits like Sony, Panasonic, Fuji and co.

So I guess all eyes are on Canon and Nikon. I wonder if they will just blithely drive on or do something quite bold like announce that in future all their DSLRs will be FF only and everything below that including the D7100/7D level will move to mirrorless with EVF, a short-registration mount and a new mobile-friendly OS. Considering how Nikon have cold-shouldered their DX line, beyond issuing steady-Eddy updates rather than new products, it would not surprise me.

Ricoh are in quite a good position here, I think. They do not have a vast legacy catalogue to protect nor a marketing machine premised on it. So it's easier for them to start on a new chapter, perhaps.

Last edited by mecrox; 10-28-2013 at 07:57 AM.
10-28-2013, 08:14 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
He goes on to compare Canon and Nikon with General Motors: vast edifices which, if they do not change, will be toppled by nimbler outfits like Sony, Panasonic, Fuji and co.
However there is s a major difference -- the photography industry will continue to be pulled along by a large pro segment and in a different way than cars or even computers are.

10-28-2013, 09:29 AM   #23
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Another example: That Smartphone technology in which multiple pictures are taking in such a rapid succession after which they are combined to form one clear image. Why don't big fat expensive DSLRs make use of such features to make their images even more clear? Fast forward only a few years into the future and phones will in fact give results that match that of a DSLR. DSLR manufacturers sit still to much.
10-28-2013, 03:07 PM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
Another example: That Smartphone technology in which multiple pictures are taking in such a rapid succession after which they are combined to form one clear image. Why don't big fat expensive DSLRs make use of such features to make their images even more clear? Fast forward only a few years into the future and phones will in fact give results that match that of a DSLR. DSLR manufacturers sit still to much.
Right on! I think they have managers that are so used to post processing images afterward, they they can't conceive of anyone wanting to do it in-body. Adobe is another company, IMHO, that doesn't "get it".



QuoteOriginally posted by Nesster Quote
However there is s a major difference -- the photography industry will continue to be pulled along by a large pro segment and in a different way than cars or even computers are.
This differs from my impression about the numbers of professionals. Does anyone know what the percentage of pros out there in PF membership, or maybe some other statistic. With photojournalists being laid off by some national media outlets, I'm guessing that the number of professionals is declining, but i could be totally wrong since i have no statistics I wonder how membership numbers are running year to year in the professional associations?
10-28-2013, 03:49 PM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Right on! I think they have managers that are so used to post processing images afterward, they they can't conceive of anyone wanting to do it in-body. Adobe is another company, IMHO, that doesn't "get it".
I'm not sure that's entirely correct, (though I do agree that Adobe has lost some credibility with their latest Photoshop arrangements) because I do wonder how many people use the existing in-camera effects. I know that I don't, and the only people I know who do any of that confine it to monochrome conversions. If that's the case generally, then why would you bother adding another feature that virtually no-one uses? Perhaps panoramas could be the exception to that, though.

QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
This differs from my impression about the numbers of professionals. Does anyone know what the percentage of pros out there in PF membership, or maybe some other statistic. With photojournalists being laid off by some national media outlets, I'm guessing that the number of professionals is declining, but i could be totally wrong since i have no statistics I wonder how membership numbers are running year to year in the professional associations?
In a sense, what we may be seeing is a return to the situation that pertained at the start of the rise of popularity of film SLRs, in the late 1960s, when the dominance of the Leica for photographic reportage was overturned principally by the Nikon F. Then, the SLR began to be used by enthusiasts as well as professionals, while most people shot with rangefinders or Instamatics and the like. The DSLR has enjoyed popularity with many casual photographers since prices began to fall, presumably because purchasers either thought they would instantly make them better photographers (like buying a sporty car makes you a better driver) or because they were symbols of success or social superiority (like buying a German car symbolises your "arrival" amongst the elite). What we may be seeing is the waning of that popularity, possibly because small is the latest trend in many things (except Samsung phones, perhaps) but possibly also because people are discovering that competence and prestige aren't dependent on big and showy equipment.

So, what we may be seeing is a return to the dominance of enthusiast and professional ownership of DSLRs. If that's the case, we can possibly expect prices to rise, as sales continue to fall, and lengthening of product cycles, neither of which is necessarily a bad thing.

Last edited by RobA_Oz; 10-28-2013 at 05:19 PM.
10-28-2013, 04:44 PM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
This differs from my impression about the numbers of professionals. Does anyone know what the percentage of pros out there in PF membership, or maybe some other statistic.
Let me put it this way: Pro audio doesn't drive high fidelity sales. Rally, NASCAR, and other racing circuits use very different equipment than you and I. However, you and I can buy and use the same or similar equipment as pro photographers do.
10-28-2013, 08:27 PM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by alamo5000 Quote
I think there are four reasons.
Make that 5 reasons...

5. Market saturation


Steve
10-28-2013, 08:44 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by stevebrot Quote
Make that 5 reasons...

5. Market saturation


Steve
P.T. Barnum may not have agreed with you...
10-28-2013, 08:56 PM   #29
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I agree DSLRs are living on borrowed time, that doesn't mean someone isn't going to come up with a K-01 equivalent that's not clunky as hell and revolutionize everything.

My prediction is someone is going to come up with a full frame (or larger! The whole concept of being tied to a set lens size is something that's going to have to be forgotten at some point) that takes existing glass with or without an adaptor and incorporate all the bells and whistles that the cell phone segment has grown to expect.

I'd almost say that eventually it could be something no larger than a teleconverter that's attached to a lens, used to focus and compose, and which then transmits the data to the users smartphone/tablet/PC/cranial implant where the processing is then done to it.

It won't necessarily be *soon* but its the logical end point for how things seem to be progressing with technology.
10-28-2013, 09:38 PM   #30
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Not sure dSLRs will disappear. In its form, my Pentax K-5II is much more pleasurable to use than my Sony RX100II. I don't have large hands but the the K-5 is even better with its battery grip. I love using the RX100 for its take anywhere, any time capability but it can be fiddly and capricious -- its a very good complementary camera to the K-5. The K-5 wins out on sheer photo-taking joy - the K-5 becomes an extension of my mind & vision in a way that the RX100 does not.
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