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10-29-2013, 07:57 PM   #31
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
Another example: That Smartphone technology in which multiple pictures are taking in such a rapid succession after which they are combined to form one clear image. Why don't big fat expensive DSLRs make use of such features to make their images even more clear? Fast forward only a few years into the future and phones will in fact give results that match that of a DSLR. DSLR manufacturers sit still to much.
These features are definitely being implemented in the higher end products, Clavius, useless as well as useful ones.

You mentioned Panorama. What did my NEX 3 do to my back wheel?



My K-30 has inbuilt HDR, but I'd never use it, when I can bracket three exposures and make decisions in Photomatix.

Enthusiasts and Pros will continue to want the latest and greatest - that's Gear Acquisition Syndrome for you.

The features in consumer cameras that hold the most promise - WiFi, tethering, touch screens, etc - will come to the higher end ones too. Sony is very good at doing that. Canon even launched the EOS-M way ahead of suitable lenses. Not a success story, but it shows the capability to act is there.

I'd hope that features continue to flow the other way, too, so that my future smartphone could do RAW files, for instance.


Last edited by clackers; 10-29-2013 at 08:04 PM.
10-29-2013, 08:30 PM - 1 Like   #32
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I think DSLRS have to get ALOT smarter- what sets them apart to me is customizibillity and ultimate control.
Give me MORE processing power and the ability to take modes in/out via an app like interface with the computer.
It needs to be able to download to the cloud AND/OR wirelessly to my computer. I also want to control my camera via my phone INCLUDING FL on zoom lenses. This is the kind of things that will bring DSLRS back into the fold.
Make things modular so I can have a small camera or a large powerful one when I need it, thats have the point of removable lenses, picking the best one for the job.
10-29-2013, 10:00 PM   #33
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QuoteOriginally posted by Tonto Quote
I think DSLRS have to get ALOT smarter- what sets them apart to me is customizibillity and ultimate control.
Agreed, Tonto, and it's much easier to add features into a DSLR body (like a WiFi slot, flip screen, 3G card, cloud or extra SD backup options) than to add a real viewfinder, flash hotshoe and ergonomically practical dials and buttons to a phone (my NEX has everything buried in menus).

You probably don't get more ambitious than Samsung's attempt to make a connected camera (voice control!):

http://www.samsung.com/au/consumer/mobile-phone/galaxy-camera/galaxy-camera-...features#con04

And you can try to turn your phone into an RX100:

http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2013/09/sony-qx100-review-glorious-photos-painful-package/

Last edited by clackers; 10-29-2013 at 10:19 PM.
10-29-2013, 10:54 PM   #34
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DSLR will go into decline. Until someone figures out how to make a quantum mirror. Then maybe we can have the OVF back.

10-31-2013, 08:59 AM   #35
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Ultimately the problem is the photon, and its way of behaving like a wave under certain circumstances. I'm thinking the wave stuff (diffraction) could be countered via software, but there are limits on multiplying (i.e. amplifying) a photon.
In small sensors I think there will continue to be a size vs quality battle, vacillating between smaller vs better, whichever has the advantage has market possibility. In other words, currently larger sensors with better quality seem to be selling points, until you get smaller ones catch up again.
But in the end you can't fake size, for whatever 'pro' or 'enthusiast' advantage the larger sensors + accompanying lenses will have their place
11-03-2013, 11:40 AM   #36
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QuoteOriginally posted by stevebrot Quote
Make that 5 reasons...

5. Market saturation


Steve
Actually, I think this will be the biggest reason. There are only so many people who are going to tackle the learning curve of a DSLR. Most of the old film shooters have moved up to digital now and the quality of the phone cameras are improving. I don't believe the DSLR or interchangeable lens cameras are going to die but it's not going to be the cash cow it once was.

I'll make a prediction and a lot of people won't like it. Look for some kind of complete format change that will make our cameras incompatible with new computers, forcing us to buy into the new systems. Planned obsolescence is the only way electronics companies can survive.
11-03-2013, 12:36 PM   #37
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I think digital cameras went through the same kind of exponential growth that computers went through when they first became popular. If you went even 2-3 years without an upgrade, you were left pretty far behind. Now things have leveled off and you don't have to have the latest and greatest. I think the same thing has happened with digital cameras. People stopped buying because they no longer had to every few years. I'd be very surprised if DSLRs go away, but I don't doubt that their share of the overall camera market will diminish. As others have said, they'll probably go back to being an enthusiast's tool.
11-03-2013, 12:46 PM   #38
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I still believe market saturation is only comparatively close in the developed West, and even there the enthusiast market will carry new sales for a while yet, but it will slow as technological advances reach a point where improvements are so marginal as to make upgrades less worthwhile. In developing countries, that point is a very long way off.

The learning curve issue is an interesting point. How many non-enthusiast DSLR users simply leave their control settings on the factory default? I'd guess the overwhelming majority do, and they would be the majority of DSLR users overall. After all, they bought the camera to instantly make them better photographers, didn't they? The toe of the learning curve is pretty shallow.

I can't imagine what technological advance in computers would make them incompatible with digital camera outputs, and vice versa. I should have thought that there was no substantial business connection between the manufacturers of both products, so I can't see any incentive for either to drive the technologies apart. Even if they did, there'd be an instant market created for a translation device, and you can be sure someone would be in there in a flash to meet the opportunity.

11-03-2013, 01:38 PM   #39
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Once the current generation of photographers have died (sorry, but we are all getting old) I think people's perceptions of the definition of a camera will change. Perhaps the profession of a photographer will change completely, or disappear.

When I first used a camera, a rangefinder was the norm. The concept of an SLR was new, and AF didn't even come until years later.

I remember buying my first digital camera in the 90s. It was 1 megapixels for $2000. Then my first DSLR - the venerable Pentax *ist D in 2005 for $3000.

The mirrorless cameras of today actually remind me of the rangefinders I used in my youth (I remember being a member of our school's photography club, and we even had a darkroom at school where we would develop the prints) - similar form factor and weight.

I wouldn't be surprised if in the future the concept of a camera may not even exist - already people think a photograph is something they take on a phone. And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Several years ago, there were rumours Apple was entering the camera market. That hasn't happened, but the camera UI on the latest iPhone is very nice - I am now seriously considering using the iPhone as a camera rather than carrying a compact.
11-03-2013, 05:11 PM - 1 Like   #40
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I already use my iPhone for most work-related photography, simply because it's always with me but more importantly now because the image quality is more than adequate for most such purposes. Only when I need to record objects at a distance (such as power pole fittings etc) will I revert to a dedicated camera (the Q is a great work tool for such things, being light and having a comparatively high IQ).

I agree that the general notion of a separate camera will be seen as largely irrelevant for most picture-taking in the future - the general trend is there already, to be seen at popular tourist spots in many parts of the world. Cameras will revert to their position in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, as tools for professionals and enthusiasts, I believe. I don't think that professional photography will die out altogether, but it will be more limited in scope, for example with visual news reporting being done mainly with phone cameras.

There will still be a need for professionals in specialist areas, and they will probably command high prices for their services, and dedicated cameras will still be the mainstay of photographic art. Aside from the higher standard of image quality available with bigger sensors and higher specification lenses, there is the concentration of vision that is not available to the same extent in a secondary-function camera attached to another device, some measure of which is important in all photography, but which is of greatest importance to the action or artistic photographer.

Last edited by RobA_Oz; 11-03-2013 at 05:30 PM.
11-04-2013, 05:58 AM   #41
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
Only when I need to record objects at a distance (such as power pole fittings etc) will I revert to a dedicated camera (the Q is a great work tool for such things, being light and having a comparatively high IQ).
This is the thing I keep coming back to...the difficulty in shooting things at a distance. Phone cameras, and to a lesser extent, even cameras like the Q, which lack a viewfinder, lose a great deal of their convenience when trying to shoot things at a distance or with long lenses. Sure, there are work-arounds, but as you add a loupe to the LCD screen, or put it on a tripod or monopod or whatever, you get back to the question of, "Is that more convenient than just using a DSLR?"
11-04-2013, 06:51 AM   #42
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QuoteOriginally posted by TaoMaas Quote
This is the thing I keep coming back to...the difficulty in shooting things at a distance. Phone cameras, and to a lesser extent, even cameras like the Q, which lack a viewfinder, lose a great deal of their convenience when trying to shoot things at a distance or with long lenses. Sure, there are work-arounds, but as you add a loupe to the LCD screen, or put it on a tripod or monopod or whatever, you get back to the question of, "Is that more convenient than just using a DSLR?"
Photographing things in the distance restricts itself to all things to which you can't walk up to. Airplanes, birds or other timid/dangerous animals, things high up in poles, etc.. If only that category of shooter is going to really need a DSLR, then that market still is incredibly tiny. It would actually dictate that I don't need a camera at all, I never ever use a focal lenth above 85mm.

The two most important things that the dedicated camera has over a phone is quality and the fact that it's a dedicated camera. The first one is just physics, the phonecamera lenses and sensor are restricted by size and that restricts the image quality.

The second one is where the cameras are currently failing vs phones. A user can instantly use the phone images in 1001 ways whilst he can't do that with the camera. Often resulting in the user using the phone much sooner then the camera. When that is fixed everybody will keep on buying dedicated cameras. Even if those are big blobby APS-C DSLRs or tiny Full Frame MILCs. It may even open up more demand for bigger formats.

Just a n00b example of mine: Imagine an android app version of DXO that has the nice presets and customizable presets that are synched with the desktop version. The app is able to process RAW files. The user takes an image with his DSLR and selects on his phone or tablet what preset to use for that particular image. Bang, a minute or so later the RAW image is developed and ready to use on Facebook, for printing or to send as a preview to a customer. Again, this is just my example of a workflow I would enjoy myself. Fidget-free communication between big cameras and phones opens up big world of apps being created by all kinds of brilliant app-programmers.

If they get DSLRs and sorts to play nice with mobile devices then they won't be going anywhere. If they do it right, it may actually trigger a second wave of everybody wanting to upgrade to such a new generation of connected cameras.
11-04-2013, 10:23 AM   #43
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Oof, Clavius, maybe people would buy it, but the last thing I really want is my camera to be hackable, crashing, going offline, getting poor signal, subject to local telecomm monopolies, etc, etc. It's not *all* rosy about over-computerising things. And there's a tendency not to not be able to turn those kinds of 'features' off, not to mention of course the planned or incidental obsolescence about even ordinary cell phones that always seems to happen. (I think I'd rather attach those functions to a smallish Ipad sort of unit, to handle those things with a somewhat bigger screen, etc. )


QuoteOriginally posted by TaoMaas Quote
I think digital cameras went through the same kind of exponential growth that computers went through when they first became popular. If you went even 2-3 years without an upgrade, you were left pretty far behind. Now things have leveled off and you don't have to have the latest and greatest. I think the same thing has happened with digital cameras. People stopped buying because they no longer had to every few years. I'd be very surprised if DSLRs go away, but I don't doubt that their share of the overall camera market will diminish. As others have said, they'll probably go back to being an enthusiast's tool.
This is a thing that people seem surprised about when they talk about camera tech like it's a corporate profit/marketshare race alone. The tech itself seems to be in a plateau whereas for years it's been racing up the ladder to try and equal film cameras in some respects.

A lot of the entry-level DSLRs would be sold to people who were tired of the *limitations* of smaller cameras (notably shutter lag, missed focus, just things that'd cause them to miss or be unable to get shots. Basic things that don't get a lot of press or advertising in the tech race of specs and features.) As the technology's gotten smarter at things like that, there's a certain segment who simply aren't driven to think they 'need a real camera' so, (These are usually the types who tend to approach me for help with such issues out there, they'd be motivated by little frustrations like that, usually along with at least enough interest in photography to be 'I always thought I should take some lessons sometime.' There's fewer of them these days cause a lot of little cameras work just fine for them, and plenty are satisfied with what their phones can do, more or less. )

As for DSLRs themselves, a lot for one thing, depends on the economy, (whether people's wants are enough for a sale when something older will do) and where the tech goes.

As for the tech, I suspect that we'll see DSLRs affected by some new *materials* that are coming down the pipeline, particularly as regards size, pattery power per size, how much space the extra computing takes, etc. Just having a mirror box doesn't mean even a full frame camera with a full viewfinder *has* to be much bigger than an ME Super,
strictly speaking, so the size differential is probably going to end up lessening sooner or later: (Since compacts can only get so small before becoming awkward for human hands,) Various thin-panel LCDs, new batteries and processors, smaller motors and magnets, etc are bound to find their way in.

And if Pentax's new line is any indication, they're rather redefining 'entry-level' as more like 'less expensive enthusiast-level DSLR' as in not so much aiming for competing with the point and shoot market. Which is to say, good for students or people interested in more control and dabbling in more-serious attention to the craft. There aren't a whole lot of reasons I'd be grumbling about anything if I were using a K-30 or K-50, myself. (Even if there's plenty reason for me to prefer a K-3 or K-5) That sort of thing has a great deal to do with why I'm shooting Pentax in the first place, ...this K-20D was the most-serviceable, least-dumbed-down, generally serious-shooter-oriented rig I could afford, back when the prices were quite low. That kind of thing's an equation that appeals to the starving-artist and student-photogs-with-spending-money market, SLRs still seem to rule for sports and wildlife for the forseeable future, whatnot. So I don't expect the market's just going to disappear: I would however expect the downspecced and chintsy-feeling-sold-with-kit-lens Rebels and the like to do a fade, (Maybe with mirrorless EVF versions to be the big-box-stepping-stone to the full sized cameras or something.)

I'd actually like to think that the general trend for people not to need such frequent upgrades as the technology progressed actually might lend itself to cameras being marketed more like they used to: ie, for a longer haul. Especially after some more-frugal times, maybe we'll see more of the old expectation that a customer would expect a camera would last at least as long as a car, if not indefinitely.
11-04-2013, 10:52 AM   #44
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By the way, I got to play with a friend's D3100 yesterday, and yes, the consumer DSLR is dead. We pentaxians don't appreciate how good we have it.
11-04-2013, 11:13 AM - 1 Like   #45
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
P.T. Barnum may not have agreed with you...
But PT Barnum sold something ephemeral. A camera is an object and lasts many years if proper operating order. Many buyers can only afford to buy one per decade or such time interval.

When I read here of people buying more and more kit - new bodies when they are available just to find out what they are like, or even multiple copies of the same, it leaves me wondering whether they have any other responsibilities in life.
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