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11-04-2013, 12:04 PM   #46
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1962 Seattle World's Fair: The world of tomorrow...

So 50 years ago, I went to this worlds fair and heard about all these predictions of what the future would look like. And while some predictions came true, many have still not happened 50 years later

Seattle World's Fair - World of Tomorrow

A few things that came true:
1. Fax machines with inventions going back to the 1800's finally came into common usage in 1980's
2. Electronic library display was centered around a univac main computer and the information it could store. But still we have huge paper book libraries.
3. Wall sized TV screens. Today's large LCD screens probably qualify

Things that didn't come true
1. Rounded cubes for homes. Most house i see are still built from sticks. More condos/apts than ever, but relatively same.
2. Ford's predicted 6 wheel car with 4 tires up front for 4 wheel drive steering. (The smart car, the Elio and electric cars were not predicted but will probably revolutionize the market)
3. Disposable dishes - nope
4. Automatic windows - nope

The point being that future predictions are often in error. If future predictions were so good, why did Canon, Nikon and Pentax all miss the boat on their first mirrorless efforts (except for the damn Q - thing will probably outlive me )

I think OVF will soon be replaced by EVF for 98% of consumer cameras within 3 years. The photographic community will be as vibrant in the future as it is today. There will be as many photo professionals in the future as there are today. (I do volunteer work for a local live theater. After 4 years, I'm a bit worn out and have been encouraging them to take their own pictures with their iphones, PS, whatever, but they still prefer to call me or other enthusiasts)

I'm confident there will be plenty of dedicated cameras around in the next 15 years for pros and enthusiasts to be happy with. But they will mostly be using the same electronic and other hardware as other camera manufacturers. That is a key to cutting costs and how laptops are made today - one repair shop told me that all laptops have components from a very few wholesalers. We already see Sony, Toshiba, etc. make sensors to sell to anyone that wants them.

Specialized lenses will still be available. or will they? Will ILC cameras survive?

When folks tell me that the everything will be completely different in the future, i laugh and remember the 1962 worlds fair. yeah, right.

11-04-2013, 12:31 PM   #47
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QuoteOriginally posted by tim60 Quote
But PT Barnum sold something ephemeral.
True, but it was his approach to his customers that I was talking about.

QuoteOriginally posted by tim60 Quote
A camera is an object and lasts many years if proper operating order. Many buyers can only afford to buy one per decade or such time interval.
Also true. However, if folks here turn theirs over at a more rapid rate than one every ten years, it means more people can afford to buy the superseded ones and enjoy this hobby too. It's no different to any consumer good.
11-04-2013, 02:55 PM   #48
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I don't believe for a second the economy is anywhere near as big of an impact on sales as some are saying. If that was true Apple wouldn't be selling expensive products year round and expensive gaming systems like the Xbox one and PlayStation 4 wouldn't be sold out months in advance. If there is tech people truly want they will figure out a way to pay for it(so far at least).The fact is DSLR tech is stalling in terms of advancement compared to what it was and that's only logical since there is only so much room for improvement.

The fact is smartphones have taken care the vast majority of photographic needs for consumers. Now add in the fact mirrorless compacts are equaling low to high end DSLRs and are priced competitive and it’s going to eat into DSLRsales. DSLRs are not going to just drop off the face of the planet but they will shrink massively and will become a niche player.
11-04-2013, 03:42 PM   #49
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
So 50 years ago, I went to this worlds fair and heard about all these predictions of what the future would look like. And while some predictions came true, many have still not happened 50 years later

...
Things that didn't come true
1. Rounded cubes for homes. Most house i see are still built from sticks. More condos/apts than ever, but relatively same.
2. Ford's predicted 6 wheel car with 4 tires up front for 4 wheel drive steering. (The smart car, the Elio and electric cars were not predicted but will probably revolutionize the market)
3. Disposable dishes - nope
4. Automatic windows - nope
Just to comment on your world of tomorrow not-trues:

Well... the six wheeled dream car was produced... all two of them - For Sale: A 1977 Panther Six – One of Only Two Produced. Okay, maybe not lots of them, but hey, six wheels!

And I'd say we're pretty much at the disposable dishes stage as well - or they could be disposed of, at least. Look at all of the recyclable fast food containers, cheap plasticware available on a seasonal basis at Target and elsewhere, I'd say we were there.

11-05-2013, 01:10 AM   #50
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote

Things that didn't come true
1. Rounded cubes for homes. Most house i see are still built from sticks. More condos/apts than ever, but relatively same.
2. Ford's predicted 6 wheel car with 4 tires up front for 4 wheel drive steering. (The smart car, the Elio and electric cars were not predicted but will probably revolutionize the market)
3. Disposable dishes - nope
4. Automatic windows - nope
What do you mean? They all eventuated :-)
11-05-2013, 10:46 AM   #51
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QuoteOriginally posted by zzaletel Quote
Just to comment on your world of tomorrow not-trues:

Well... the six wheeled dream car was produced... all two of them - For Sale: A 1977 Panther Six One of Only Two Produced. Okay, maybe not lots of them, but hey, six wheels!

And I'd say we're pretty much at the disposable dishes stage as well - or they could be disposed of, at least. Look at all of the recyclable fast food containers, cheap plasticware available on a seasonal basis at Target and elsewhere, I'd say we were there.
Thats amazing, the panther 6, who would have thought :-)

As to the disposable dishes, yes and no - i'm not sure what the original prediction intent was now that you mention it :-). we do have a lot of disposable choices, foam cups/dishes, and plastic trays of food sold thru stores, yet most homes still use reuseable plates and there is an environmental push-back on all the plastic headed for the dumps and oceans. At least partially true alright.
11-05-2013, 11:00 AM   #52
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At our photo club meeting last night, our Prez announced the results of a test he did.

He borrowed a D800e and put a 50 on it, alternated his D600 with with the same 50 on it and set his Sony Nex 5n up with the Sigma 30 on it. Walked around town and took pictures with all 3 and printed at 8x10. Couldn't tell the difference looking at the prints. I think he said at 11x17 he could tell a difference at 100%.

I think that the majority of camera owners only shoot jpeg and never look at their images at 100%. One survey, done here at least a year ago, indicated 30% don't even make prints anymore. is that good or bad - no, it just is. Changing cultural tastes.

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