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10-27-2013, 10:07 PM   #1
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Consumer DSLR dead soon?

Ok, this all sounds too good to be true - but, if this is the case, I'd really like to see Pentax cementing a FF before it all ends.
Apologies if the news link has been posted before.

Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years" » EOSHD.com

10-27-2013, 10:25 PM   #2
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QuoteOriginally posted by D4rknezz Quote
Ok, this all sounds too good to be true - but, if this is the case, I'd really like to see Pentax cementing a FF before it all ends.
Apologies if the news link has been posted before.

Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years" » EOSHD.com
FF != consumer. It's APS-C and under that will die

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10-27-2013, 10:44 PM   #3
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Ya hehe, exactly.

Would be nice if Pentax stop lagging behind everyone who is desperately trying to break into pro market before their products are overwritten by iPhone 6s.
10-27-2013, 10:52 PM   #4
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From the article...

Consumer digital camera sales are down 36% this year. Why?

I think there are four reasons.
  • Smartphones
  • Satisfaction with current DSLRs
  • Lack of innovate products
  • Global economic downturn
-------


From me: Causes: Global economic downturn;85%, lack of innovative products 10%; the other two make up the remaining 5%.

10-27-2013, 11:14 PM   #5
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Canon and Nikon both look like they have been caught flat-footed at the moment. With all the red ink, where are they going to find the resources to build some new camera that will catch the consumer's eye. And if they manage to built some new camera, will it then undermine whatever support their DSLRs have now. A catch-22, meanwhile the news doesn't get any better for them.

None of the articles so far have mentioned Pentax, but IMO, their new K3 with its switchable AA filter and many other features interests me. There was a thread on dpreview K-3 vs. D600 samples comparison: Pentax SLR Talk Forum: Digital Photography Review that reported a test between K3 and D600 images. And several posters thought the K3 images looked better. As good as the K3 images are being reported (early i know), there really is less incentive to buy into a Canikon FF for marginal improvements, balanced with higher cost, higher volume and weight of most FF zoom lenses.

K3 is an excellent step forward for Ricoh. Another interesting year for photography equipment.
10-27-2013, 11:18 PM   #6
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The real sting was in the tail:
"In my view, Canon are more vulnerable than anyone going forward. It isn’t just that the higher the climb, the bigger the drop at the other side – frankly their DSLR line has become boring from top to bottom.

The Sony A7 is a nail in the coffin of Canon’s full frame line-up but it’s consumer apathy which will finally close the lid."
Canon is a leader in the market, but it's the most in trouble at the moment.
10-27-2013, 11:36 PM - 1 Like   #7
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That consumer apathy grows because of lots of reasons, but the fact that DSLRs are huge, don't play nice with other mobile devices, and have less photographic features then some smartphones are the biggest gripes, imo. I've used this example before: I have a phone that can created panorama's by just swiping the lens over the scene. On the screen you see it capturing the images and stitching them together. I can go on as long as I want, even until I have a full 360 degree pano. And when one of pictures misses and can't be stitches, the phone tells me to swipe that area again. It's absurd I that can't do that with my $1200,- camera, but I can do that with the phone that I got for FREE with my mobile phone service. To many consumers, such features render a phone a more powerful and user friendly photographic tool.

Sony clearly made a big step in the right direction with the A7(r). Small, being able to accept new apps and being able to couple it to a smartphone makes it fit in again.


Last edited by Clavius; 10-28-2013 at 12:04 AM.
10-28-2013, 01:02 AM - 1 Like   #8
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I would like to know which smartphone has more photographic features than my K-5IIs. I'm not talking about one sometimes useful feature, then huge compromises on everything else; that's not "more".
Oh, wait - he's ignoring me. I guess I'll never know
10-28-2013, 01:56 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
I've used this example before: I have a phone that can created panorama's by just swiping the lens over the scene.
Clavius, you'll be able to do your own panorama in software better than your phone can, just like you'll develop a better jpg than it can ever do.

If the quality doesn't interest you, fine, Instagram away!
10-28-2013, 02:16 AM - 3 Likes   #10
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I think Clavius' point is that for most "consumers" convenience trumps quality - a small phone (which you have with you anyway) that can do some clever party tricks (and has access to a constantly updated selection of same) is more useable as a photographic tool than the type of cameras we tend to use.
Don't forget those of us who read this site and change the lenses on our cameras are the oddballs compared to the vast majority of people taking photographs.
10-28-2013, 03:06 AM   #11
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He made no mention of comparative quality, Stephen, just a simplistic my phone does this and my camera doesn't.

The sort of person who wants to do a blue-hued snap of their morning hot chocolate for Facebook isn't taking away from DSLR sales, they're maybe cannibalizing P&S, if they were ever going to buy a camera at all.
10-28-2013, 03:36 AM   #12
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The reason that SLR sales are down is that we have reached a point where there is no strong desire to upgrade. The K5 was the first camera which to me, felt like it was pretty complete in most respects. If money was short, I would have just shot with that camera to the shutter quit. Megapixels are a poor driver of sales. New features (other than connectivity) are poor drivers of sales. In the end, you have to have some driving reason for people to buy a new product when they are reasonably satisfied with their current one.

I don't really buy the size thing, or even that APS-C is going away. APS-C SLRs are here to stay. And even if in five years there are no upper end cameras with APS-C sensors, there will still be a market for them. I just can't believe that all the folks currently buying K50s and T4i cameras are going to suddenly migrate either to full frame cameras or to camera phones. Seems crazy to predict that. The easiest prediction is to say that point and shoot cameras and probably bridge cameras will go away. They just don't have enough features on camera phones to make them worth while.
10-28-2013, 03:50 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
He made no mention of comparative quality, Stephen, just a simplistic my phone does this and my camera doesn't.

The sort of person who wants to do a blue-hued snap of their morning hot chocolate for Facebook isn't taking away from DSLR sales, they're maybe cannibalizing P&S, if they were ever going to buy a camera at all.
You are right of course, I did extrapolate his point a little...
There is a parallel and interesting thread on the original link over on DPR's Pentax forums - the key point being that consumer DSLRs could well be under threat, but enthusiast ones aren't. As I said readers of this forum tend to be at the enthusiast end of the spectrum and not really the target market for consumer (= lower end mass market) DSLRs. I could see sales of these could be damaged by the blurring of phone/tablet/camera boundaries.
Luckily my 23 year old son is firmly of the Pentax persuasion and is currently using my old K20D and a variety

Meanwhile a K3, flucard and tablet would be useful to me for some of the night tme photography I do, so time to start saving/selling some stuff.
10-28-2013, 03:53 AM   #14
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What I meant is that a DSLR currently spells "slow" to most consumers. I know perfectly well that I can 360 degree panoramas wit a Dslr. I have been selling that service to realtors for years. But more and more customers choose to pick up their own smartphone because they prefer the results now with phone quality, over only hours later in high quality. It's for web viewing anyway, so who blames them? Point remains, its a part of photography, and a phone is better at it then a dedicated camera. A $1200,- camera, should be able to do exactly what that phone does, but only better. And currently, that's not the case. Not by a long shot.

Last edited by Clavius; 10-28-2013 at 09:38 AM.
10-28-2013, 04:17 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by Clavius Quote
What I meant is that a DSLR currently spells "slow" most consumers. I know perfectly well I can 360 degree panoramas wit a Dslr. I have been selling that service to realtors for years. But more and more customers choose to pick up their own smartphone because they prefer the results now with phone quality, over even just a few hours later in high quality. It'd for web viewing anyway. Point remains, its a part of photography, and a phone is better at it then a dedicated camera.
Agree with you there -speed and convenience are the key these days. I am of course a dinosaur who only has a basic mobile phone and am using Windows XP and IE8 to view this! (Actually I do have a laptop with Win7 on it but is is broken.)
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