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12-12-2013, 01:28 PM   #31
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Another factor: remember how in the 1990s we all felt we had to replace computers after 3 years because new software would not work on the old box. About 2000 that balance changed and it seemed that the machines had the capacity to go for about 5 yers before getting outdated.

I think some ting similar has happened with cameras. The perceived improvement in early model upgrades was considerable, so many people felt they needed to get the next model. Now the standard of the one they already have is good enough tha tthey feel they can skip a couple of generations before their next purchase. Result - the market decreases in turnover.

But for those who are concerned about the environment - that is a good thing - less consumption of resources!

12-12-2013, 06:16 PM   #32
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Here's a pretty comprehensive story on the whole accounting scandal:

The Story Behind the Olympus Scandal - Businessweek

But if this "news report" is any indication, Olympus haven't learned anything

Olympus teases financial reports | New Camera News

[wink wink nudge nudge]
12-12-2013, 07:03 PM   #33
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QuoteOriginally posted by richmondthefish Quote
Explain how both xBox and PS4 sold over 1 million units in a 24 hour period?
Because they're not the same outlay, or anywhere close, to that of many/most ILC's. Much broader market and the kids hankering after them and the parents giving in to demands. Strangely, adults 'play' on these things too. I mean thirty somethings. I find that so odd. It also says something about the static society where people don't leave their homes much and go out anywhere to do things (this is certainly the case in the UK).

A good example of affordability is my friend in the UK, Danny. Lovely bloke, one of the most qualified plant operators I know. He has a Canon 550D with kit lens that he bought for his work in Africa (he was a plant operator on one of the biggest mining projects). He loves all my gear and would love to get into it all more, but when he finds out how much the lenses cost he laughs. His mortgage is 1200 a month and about to increase because he can't refinance at the same rate. His income is around 1800-2200 a month, if he has work.

People can't afford the ILC thing anymore. There is simply not the money.
12-12-2013, 07:08 PM   #34
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QuoteOriginally posted by tim60 Quote
Another factor: remember how in the 1990s we all felt we had to replace computers after 3 years because new software would not work on the old box. About 2000 that balance changed and it seemed that the machines had the capacity to go for about 5 yers before getting outdated.

I think some ting similar has happened with cameras. The perceived improvement in early model upgrades was considerable, so many people felt they needed to get the next model. Now the standard of the one they already have is good enough tha tthey feel they can skip a couple of generations before their next purchase. Result - the market decreases in turnover.

But for those who are concerned about the environment - that is a good thing - less consumption of resources!
Incremental upgrades ain't gonna cut no more. I look at my K-5 IIs. Look at the shots I get out of the thing. Then look at the results people are getting with the K-3 and look at the spec sheet. Diminishing returns on increased investment is really coming into play here.

Another 1099 for what exactly? A few more keepers?

12-12-2013, 07:50 PM   #35
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parry Quote
Incremental upgrades ain't gonna cut no more. I look at my K-5 IIs. Look at the shots I get out of the thing. Then look at the results people are getting with the K-3 and look at the spec sheet. Diminishing returns on increased investment is really coming into play here.
Yep...this is the "good enough" thing (good enough for what you want to do and how you intend to use the final images which is why I mentioned the m4/3 being enough for most people finally instead of initially when they were obviously inferior to APS-C sensors). Just about everything is "good enough", like PCs nowadays. The only thing rapidly evolving is smartphones/tablets so you have the urge to keep upgrading.
12-12-2013, 08:07 PM   #36
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parry Quote
Incremental upgrades ain't gonna cut no more. I look at my K-5 IIs. Look at the shots I get out of the thing. Then look at the results people are getting with the K-3 and look at the spec sheet. Diminishing returns on increased investment is really coming into play here.

Another 1099 for what exactly? A few more keepers?
But on the other side of my point: my current camera is K100DS. I went on a lens buying expedition since 2010 (all antique STaks and SMCTaks). Now a couple generations of camera later I am seriously thining of K3. The pesuading point for me was how much easier it was to focus with a K5 when I tried one of my antiques on it a few months back. (And the owner of the K5 was really impressed by the legacy glass - SMC Tak 132/2.5.) But note - I am skipping several model generations as well as from entry level to top of market. Too much else demands my money.
12-12-2013, 09:07 PM   #37
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QuoteOriginally posted by tim60 Quote
But on the other side of my point: my current camera is K100DS. I went on a lens buying expedition since 2010 (all antique STaks and SMCTaks). Now a couple generations of camera later I am seriously thining of K3. The pesuading point for me was how much easier it was to focus with a K5 when I tried one of my antiques on it a few months back. (And the owner of the K5 was really impressed by the legacy glass - SMC Tak 132/2.5.) But note - I am skipping several model generations as well as from entry level to top of market. Too much else demands my money.
This is exactly it. That will be a massive step up, not an incremental update.

I would urge you to look at the K-5IIs first though. You may be able to save a lot of money that way.

For me, I feel any camera gear budget would be better spent on rare(ish) glass like the A* 85 and 135 and others which will bring deep, deep joy yet hold their value.

12-13-2013, 04:44 AM   #38
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parry Quote
Incremental upgrades ain't gonna cut no more. I look at my K-5 IIs. Look at the shots I get out of the thing. Then look at the results people are getting with the K-3 and look at the spec sheet. Diminishing returns on increased investment is really coming into play here.

Another 1099 for what exactly? A few more keepers?
I think the SLR cycle has really spaced out over the last few years. The APS-C update cycle was always shorter than the full frame one (18 months versus 3 years, roughly), but you could usually skip a generation over even two. If you owned a K20, there was little point in buying a K7, unless you needed video. If you owned a K5, there wasn't a whole lot of point in buying a K5 II, unless you were having a lot of auto focus troubles. Of course, Pentax was taken over by Ricoh and that really sort of spaced out the time between the K5 and K5 II release and certainly the K3 release.

The cameras that felt like big jumps to me, were the K10 (primarily the sealing, general improvements in ease of use) and the K5 (primarily the amazing Sony sensor which continues to impress, even today). Otherwise everything has felt incremental, evolutionary rather than revolutionary.
12-13-2013, 08:01 AM   #39
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parry Quote
Because they're not the same outlay, or anywhere close, to that of many/most ILC's. Much broader market and the kids hankering after them and the parents giving in to demands. Strangely, adults 'play' on these things too. I mean thirty somethings. I find that so odd. It also says something about the static society where people don't leave their homes much and go out anywhere to do things (this is certainly the case in the UK).

A good example of affordability is my friend in the UK, Danny. Lovely bloke, one of the most qualified plant operators I know. He has a Canon 550D with kit lens that he bought for his work in Africa (he was a plant operator on one of the biggest mining projects). He loves all my gear and would love to get into it all more, but when he finds out how much the lenses cost he laughs. His mortgage is 1200 a month and about to increase because he can't refinance at the same rate. His income is around 1800-2200 a month, if he has work.

People can't afford the ILC thing anymore. There is simply not the money.
I'll give you another story of a coworker. Makes $8000 per month and told me he was thinking about getting a ILC for a while but neither bothered because of the photo's his iPhone is producing. This is also a time where photography is dirt cheap if you just want to get into it as a small hobby with a basic zoom and low end body.
12-13-2013, 08:09 AM   #40
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QuoteOriginally posted by richmondthefish Quote
I'll give you another story of a coworker. Makes $8000 per month and told me he was thinking about getting a ILC for a while but neither bothered because of the photo's his iPhone is producing. This is also a time where photography is dirt cheap if you just want to get into it as a small hobby with a basic zoom and low end body.
Good for him. Good for you. Whatever.
12-13-2013, 10:01 AM   #41
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Samsung is merging their phone/camera divisions, probably because they see the tech converging: Samsung to merge digital imaging branch into mobile division | Android Central

And a bit more on the is m4/3 close enough to APS-C: M4/3 to Fuji and back? - Page 3

It's like last year when you could pick a random laptop and it'd just be good enough for nearly everything you do...ditto desktop.

I suspect we won't see another big image quality jump until Sony gets rid of the bayer pattern sensor which is rumored for late next year which will hopefully make it into a K-3II...but even then, stuff is "good enough" for most things now...
12-13-2013, 11:29 AM   #42
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parry Quote
Good for him. Good for you. Whatever.


Wasn't expecting that reply.
12-13-2013, 01:06 PM   #43
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QuoteOriginally posted by kenyee Quote
Samsung is merging their phone/camera divisions, probably because they see the tech converging: Samsung to merge digital imaging branch into mobile division | Android Central

And a bit more on the is m4/3 close enough to APS-C: M4/3 to Fuji and back? - Page 3

It's like last year when you could pick a random laptop and it'd just be good enough for nearly everything you do...ditto desktop.

I suspect we won't see another big image quality jump until Sony gets rid of the bayer pattern sensor which is rumored for late next year which will hopefully make it into a K-3II...but even then, stuff is "good enough" for most things now...
Actually, I would love to have a good camera on my phone. I'm really intrigued by the Galaxy s4 zoom. If it was just a little smaller. If the "hump" where the camera lives wasn't any thicker than the one that was on my droid x.
12-13-2013, 07:40 PM   #44
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There are virtually dozens of reasons why this has happened and singling one out of them does not describe the entire story.

That income is spent less on electronics is true. That market is saturated too, is true. That second-hand market is flourishing with quality options, is also true.
Sensor tech in now more or less so evened out; small differences visible in DXO by nerds are imperceptible and an non-issue to normal people. Smartphones are becoming more popular atm, because despite convenience, the come on monthly plans, unlike cameras which must be purchased with cash or card.
And living to feed the card interest rate is now becoming an ill-idea for many.

We are back to the olde film days, when a really new camera was introduced once in five years to a decade. And perhaps it will be more so of such a trend. Similar happened in car industry; cars are so good now and market (and used card market too) so saturated with them that manufacturers cannot sustain production that has saturated the market. Reduce the number of models, and prolong the time for development between new models.
12-14-2013, 09:24 AM   #45
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QuoteOriginally posted by kenyee Quote
Samsung is merging their phone/camera divisions, probably because they see the tech converging: Samsung to merge digital imaging branch into mobile division | Android Central
Or, more likely IMO, because they want to make it happen; possibly to share R&D with their very successful smartphone division, or because they don't know how to make cameras and they're resorting to something familiar to them.

For a photographic tool, Android doesn't make sense. Touch based interface? A contraption which needs a quad core processor with 1-2GB RAM in order not to lag when browsing through its interface, and a huge battery to get one full day of doing nothing? Oh, yeah.

But I'm sure some will love the facebook notifications, downloadable games and the ability to read the e-mail (while having the same functions in their smartphone, in their pocket).
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