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11-10-2014, 12:08 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by Miguel Quote
I think that Canon's serious entry into mirrorless (the M-series were unserious) will reflect their core competencies in AF, viewfinder optics, and a wide spectrum of lenses. I would expect either a continuation of the EOS M mount or something new as they are liberated from the past. It wouldn't surprise me to see 135mm-based format. They could even use the Sony sensor, like they have with at least one new camera.

Regarding when this will happen, I'm guessing mid-Spring 2015 to start. They have too much old business to catch up on right now with the very hot selling 7D MK2, and most likely the release of the new version of the 100-400mm f4.5-5.6 this week. That lens had not changed since 1998, yet remains highly popular and is quite good. If the new version is even 10% improved then it will sell super well, so they don't want to have any newfangled platforms competing for mindshare this time around.

M
I think they likely have a team assigned to it - it may not be as large as a team they would like because of higher priorities as you suggest - but still some folks are assigned.

Using cipa Jan-Aug figures, the value of worldwide shipments of mirrorless type ILC cameras is about 22% of the total ILC market. Thats got to rankle Canon, who normally has 40% of market share, to have a negligible share of mirrorless ILC. Of course they realize they are going up against Olympus,Panasonic, Fuji, Sony and even Pentax's Q/K01. But if they put their sights on FF mirrorless, there's only Sony out there to compete against. It might be a bigger priority than you think. They probably don't like being part of a shrinking marketplace.

---------- Post added 11-09-14 at 11:46 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
It is easier to design wide lenses of mirrorless cameras to a point. Pentax has a 45mm register distance so lenses in the 40mm-50mm range can be pretty small, but a lens like a 31mm becomes more complicated to make unless its slow or lower quality. What is Focal Length of a Lens and How to Use It to Your Advantage Since you measure focal length from the sensor forward you can't make a simple 31mm lens for any camera that has a 45mm flange distance. If the focal length is shorter than the register distance things start to get complicated.

Look at the 43mm LTD. nice and compact. Designed for a 45.46mm mount
Look at the 75mm F/2.8 for the 645z. Less than $700 and only weighs 215 grams. the 645 has a 70.87mm register distance. The 55mm for the 645 is 2x the price and 2x the weight and 2x the length. When focal length is shorter than register distance things get complicated and expensive.

Sony had to work some magic to fit a FF sensor into a mount designed for ASP-C. This is presenting design problems when it comes to image quality in the corners. This is making design of high quality lenses slow and expensive. That is why Sony is taking so long to release FE lenses. If Canon, Nikon, or Pentax release a mount designed for a FF sensor they will be able to provide high quality lenses at a lower price point and Sony is going to be in trouble. In the short run, Sony is going to have a lot of success, because they were first to market with a FF mirrorless, but in the long run I think they might be at a disadvantage.
Winder - thanks a ton for that explanation. Really interesting. So maybe Pentax doesn't need a new registration distance for mirrorless - we just have to get used to an odd looking camera - seriously

11-10-2014, 12:47 AM   #17
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Sony got there first but the lens choices haven't been too well received. I think Nikon has a good shot at beating Sony at their own game if they choose to compete in the FF mirrorless market. We know that they can eke out every last bit of performance out of Sony sensors and they can pair their knowledge in that regard with the AF and continuous shooting capabilities of the Nikon 1 V3 to make a blazing fast FF compact. Lens size for FF sensors is still an issue for anyone at this point, however.
11-10-2014, 01:12 PM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by axelm7 Quote
Sony got there first but the lens choices haven't been too well received. I think Nikon has a good shot at beating Sony at their own game if they choose to compete in the FF mirrorless market. We know that they can eke out every last bit of performance out of Sony sensors and they can pair their knowledge in that regard with the AF and continuous shooting capabilities of the Nikon 1 V3 to make a blazing fast FF compact. Lens size for FF sensors is still an issue for anyone at this point, however.
Maybe you've seen some rumors from Nikon that i haven't, because the quote below doesn't sound like Nikon is committed to large sensor mirrorless:

QuoteQuote:
Canon's Masaya Maeda - a man I must have seen more in the past 12 months than my own mother and not someone who tends to be careless with his words - went as far as to tell me that we can expect Canon to create a serious mirrorless product 'in the very near future'. Meanwhile, Toshiaki Akagi of Nikon gave us plenty to read about between the lines when he acknowledged the growth in the mirrorless market and said that Nikon 'may be able to provide another type of mirrorless camera with larger sensors'.
11-10-2014, 04:33 PM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
Maybe you've seen some rumors from Nikon that i haven't, because the quote below doesn't sound like Nikon is committed to large sensor mirrorless:
Ah there are no rumors about a large sensor mirrors from Nikon, I'm just saying that they have a better shot at fighting Sony in the mirrorless market than Canon do.

11-10-2014, 05:25 PM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
But if they put their sights on FF mirrorless, there's only Sony out there to compete against. It might be a bigger priority than you think
I must have been unclear, I think they are very serious and expect high quality product in March 2015. That means a lot of design and engineering has been accomplished. Maybe.


QuoteOriginally posted by axelm7 Quote
I'm just saying that they have a better shot at fighting Sony in the mirrorless market than Canon do.
Why do you say that? Both Canon and Nikon have plenty of resources and class-leading technologies that can be ported over to the mirrorless market. I don't think SONY is formidable, they were just the first to market, with a flawed but powerful tool. The Nikon 1 V3 is considered a poorer camera than its predecessor so they have some perception change to undertake, similar in a way to Canon and the M series.

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11-10-2014, 05:31 PM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by Miguel Quote
I must have been unclear, I think they are very serious and expect high quality product in March 2015. That means a lot of design and engineering has been accomplished. Maybe.




Why do you say that? Both Canon and Nikon have plenty of resources and class-leading technologies that can be ported over to the mirrorless market. I don't think SONY is formidable, they were just the first to market, with a flawed but powerful tool. The Nikon 1 V3 is considered a poorer camera than its predecessor so they have some perception change to undertake, similar in a way to Canon and the M series.

M
I stated my reasons above, but I also think Nikon is pushing out better cameras than Canon lately, and despite being guilty of silly incremental upgrades across many of its bodies, they're doing more interesting things with sensors and features. Their use of Sony sensors is also an advantage in my view. Canon's crop sensors are crap compared to the Sony equivalents used by Nikon and Pentax.
11-10-2014, 05:59 PM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by Miguel Quote
The Nikon 1 V3 is considered a poorer camera than its predecessor so they have some perception change to undertake, similar in a way to Canon and the M series.
Not sure I agree. The Nikon 1 series was an innovative move by Nikon, and they have been improving it with each generation. V3 does have a number of advances over V2.

The real issue is Nikon perhaps made the wrong call. Nikon believed there is a market for people who want advanced, highly automated, very fast small interchangeable cameras. It turned out they were wrong. But in some respects they were out innovating Sony - I feel Sony has only recently started producing cameras (eg. A6000) that begin to compete with the Nikon 1.

The main issue with the V3 is that it is perceived as expensive, and not innovative enough. No 4K (big disappointment after Nikon's hints last year that said they were targeting 4K for the 1 series).

11-10-2014, 06:47 PM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by Christine Tham Quote
Not sure I agree. The Nikon 1 series was an innovative move by Nikon, and they have been improving it with each generation. V3 does have a number of advances over V2.

The real issue is Nikon perhaps made the wrong call. Nikon believed there is a market for people who want advanced, highly automated, very fast small interchangeable cameras. It turned out they were wrong. But in some respects they were out innovating Sony - I feel Sony has only recently started producing cameras (eg. A6000) that begin to compete with the Nikon 1.

The main issue with the V3 is that it is perceived as expensive, and not innovative enough. No 4K (big disappointment after Nikon's hints last year that said they were targeting 4K for the 1 series).
The lens choices are a huge limiting factor as well. Lenses that can take advantage of its high-speed capabilities were needed (though big lenses could also cripple its usefulness). It's a niche product, really.
11-10-2014, 07:56 PM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by axelm7 Quote
The lens choices are a huge limiting factor as well. Lenses that can take advantage of its high-speed capabilities were needed (though big lenses could also cripple its usefulness). It's a niche product, really.
That could be a perception thing.

I thought that too, but the reality is Nikon has pretty much delivered every lens they said they were going to produce when they initially announced the 1 Series.

It is what it is.

Maybe Nikon didn't really understand what their target market wanted. Or maybe they did but under-delivered. What they have ended up is a niche product that no one really wanted but everyone thinks is too expensive.
11-10-2014, 11:07 PM   #25
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I think what really has been going on - is that neither Canon or Nikon have wanted to undercut their high profit margin FF cameras. Canon's M mount camera certainly does not rate any higher than entry level, and the Nikon 1/3 is not serious competition for their aps or FF models.

Sony and Fugi have forced Canikon's strategy with solid mirrorless aps and FF models for those that want them. The only question i have is whether Canon will produce a mid or top level quality APS mirrorless first or will go directly to a FF mirrorless.
11-11-2014, 03:10 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by Christine Tham Quote
That could be a perception thing.

I thought that too, but the reality is Nikon has pretty much delivered every lens they said they were going to produce when they initially announced the 1 Series.

It is what it is.

Maybe Nikon didn't really understand what their target market wanted. Or maybe they did but under-delivered. What they have ended up is a niche product that no one really wanted but everyone thinks is too expensive.
OTOH, if Nikon scale it up to larger sensors then I guess it might have least proved a very effective if very expensive test bed. I suppose Canon must have a huge amount of electronic R&D available to them from their video business which is easy to forget looking mainly at still cameras so both must be fairly prepared for any step change.

QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
I think what really has been going on - is that neither Canon or Nikon have wanted to undercut their high profit margin FF cameras. Canon's M mount camera certainly does not rate any higher than entry level, and the Nikon 1/3 is not serious competition for their aps or FF models.

Sony and Fugi have forced Canikon's strategy with solid mirrorless aps and FF models for those that want them. The only question i have is whether Canon will produce a mid or top level quality APS mirrorless first or will go directly to a FF mirrorless.
Yes, that does sound pretty likely, at least in the sense that Canonikon may now be seeing an unwelcome portion of their old DSLR income being leached away by a new kind of camera. A few apple carts could be overturned in 2015.

Last edited by mecrox; 11-11-2014 at 03:42 AM.
11-11-2014, 05:10 AM - 1 Like   #27
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I don't think Sony has to fear Canon much, the big elephant in the room is Samsung. They make some of the best: Sensors, screens, processors. They seem to be miles ahead with their NX1 sensor, managing to cram in many MP without sacrificing DR and low ISO performance. It is also an extremely fast and low power sensor... orders of magnitude faster (AFAIK Canon can't completely read a APS-C sensor at 30 fps... Samsung does 28 MP APS-C at 240 fps!). Samsung's smartphone processors are amongst the fastest in the world, and they have put that into a dedicated camera processor. They also have great displays, and a massive marketing budget and brand recognition.
11-11-2014, 07:22 AM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by kadajawi Quote
I don't think Sony has to fear Canon much, the big elephant in the room is Samsung. They make some of the best: Sensors, screens, processors. They seem to be miles ahead with their NX1 sensor, managing to cram in many MP without sacrificing DR and low ISO performance. It is also an extremely fast and low power sensor... orders of magnitude faster (AFAIK Canon can't completely read a APS-C sensor at 30 fps... Samsung does 28 MP APS-C at 240 fps!). Samsung's smartphone processors are amongst the fastest in the world, and they have put that into a dedicated camera processor. They also have great displays, and a massive marketing budget and brand recognition.
Sumsung is a tech powerhouse, but as Sony has learned since buying Minolta, cameras and photography isn't just about the technology. It takes a lot more than cool new technology to be successful in the camera market. Fuji is probably a bigger threat. Fuji know how to make cameras for photographers, they have the technology, the brand that photographers know, and distribution to thousands of existing camera stores and photo-printing shops. Samsung has distribution at the big box stores, but those stores don't want to carry professional grade products. Sony is still learning the difference between being a consumer electronics manufacturer and being a camera manufacturer.
11-11-2014, 08:04 AM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Sumsung is a tech powerhouse, but as Sony has learned since buying Minolta, cameras and photography isn't just about the technology. It takes a lot more than cool new technology to be successful in the camera market. Fuji is probably a bigger threat. Fuji know how to make cameras for photographers, they have the technology, the brand that photographers know, and distribution to thousands of existing camera stores and photo-printing shops. Samsung has distribution at the big box stores, but those stores don't want to carry professional grade products. Sony is still learning the difference between being a consumer electronics manufacturer and being a camera manufacturer.
Professionals will get what does the job, and it seems that at least in the videography area the NX1 has stirred up a lot of interest. If it can deliver on it's promise Samsung will be struggling to keep up with demand. And camera stores... how important are they really these days? Online shopping, anyone? Samsung will be offering lower end alternatives to the NX1 that will do quite well in big box stores, and people will have an upgrade path.


It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but Fuji seems to be and stay a side player... their cameras will be found in many photographers bags, but as their walkaround camera, not the main camera. I'd like to have a Fuji, but not as my only camera.


Also, isn't Sony doing rather well for being a newcomer in the camera business?
11-11-2014, 10:27 AM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by kadajawi Quote
Professionals will get what does the job, and it seems that at least in the videography area the NX1 has stirred up a lot of interest. If it can deliver on it's promise Samsung will be struggling to keep up with demand. And camera stores... how important are they really these days? Online shopping, anyone? Samsung will be offering lower end alternatives to the NX1 that will do quite well in big box stores, and people will have an upgrade path.


It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, but Fuji seems to be and stay a side player... their cameras will be found in many photographers bags, but as their walkaround camera, not the main camera. I'd like to have a Fuji, but not as my only camera.


Also, isn't Sony doing rather well for being a newcomer in the camera business?


Camera stores and electtronics stores in general are still big players towards determining the success of a brand's products. Would you not agree that Pentax would be more successful if its cameras were sold alongside Canikon and Sony everywhere they're sold?


I do believe Samsung is making a pretty big statement with the NX. The three pro lenses they're offering for it also show that they're committed to the future of the system, unlike Canon's half-assed attempts at going mirrorless. You're spot-on about Fujis, everyone I know that has one uses them as backup, vacation, or walkaround cameras.
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