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05-15-2015, 04:49 PM   #1
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Nikon Plunged 11%

Japanese Stocks Rise as Buyback Plans Lift Topix; Nikon Plunges - Bloomberg Business

Nikon Corp. tumbled 11 percent after slashing its operating-profit target.......

Nikon plunged 11 percent, the most since August 2013 and the biggest drop on the Nikkei 225. The camera maker forecast 30 billion yen in operating profit for the year ending March, missing the 49.8 billion yen estimate of analysts. The company also slashed its 2017 operating-profit target to 38 billion yen, down from 110 billion yen in June.


Nikon had better find a way to innovate and create some brand excitement. They make great stuff, but everyone makes great stuff.

05-15-2015, 05:13 PM   #2
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
They make great stuff, but everyone makes great stuff.
+1 These days "Great Stuff" is just the price of admission, success takes a lot more than that.
05-15-2015, 05:24 PM   #3
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wow... i wonder if it's the dslr form factor chickens finally coming home to roost? or is it due to repercussions from grossly mis-managed debacles like the oily shutter incident?

no mention of the sony stock in there.
05-15-2015, 06:19 PM   #4
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As this except from the NikonRumors write up of the latest Nikon financials implies, it is too simple to read into the latest numbers a story about DSLR vs mirrorless:

QuoteQuote:
Sales and income declined 15% and 12% respectively, year on year due to delayed market recovery in China and Europe.


05-15-2015, 06:50 PM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by osv Quote
wow... i wonder if it's the dslr form factor chickens finally coming home to roost? or is it due to repercussions from grossly mis-managed debacles like the oily shutter incident?

no mention of the sony stock in there.
Nikon is old school in just about every way. They don't really innovate. They are totally exposed to the camera market. They have been trying to buy companies in other industries in order to diversify.
Nikon Buys Medical Imaging Company Optos For $400 Million; Reduces Exposure To Camera Market - DIY Photography

There was a period when I thought Nikon was really listening to its customers. Canon had the best sensors and Canon was becoming arrogant. Nikon came out with the D700 and the D3 and really did well. Now that Nikon has the better sensors they seem to be the ones resting on on their butts. They just keep repackaging the same stuff. I don't think the Df was a well thought out camera. The 16MP sensor is really good, but they should have done better with the AF and body construction given the price. The Df should sell at the same price as the D610.

I would not be surprised if Nikon was the next company to enter into the FF mirrorless market.
05-16-2015, 04:25 AM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Nikon had better find a way to innovate and create some brand excitement
My guess, and it's only a guess, is that it has little to do with gear and much to do with a change in the mass culture.

I think for most people photography has lost it's mystique. For a hundred bucks most can get all the technical perfection they need or want so far as capturing images is concerned.
Capturing an image with a camera is no more compelling to the mass market than using a toaster or a microwave.

The camera has become just another household appliance.

Last edited by wildman; 05-16-2015 at 04:32 AM.
05-16-2015, 06:59 AM   #7
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Biggest problem is that there isn't any particular innovation that will push people to get a new camera. If someone owns a D7000, what is that killer feature that is going to drive them to get a new D7200 or, a D610 or, a D4? Nikon had banked on the fact that the answer was going to be bigger sensor. Maybe that worked a little bit, but I think a lot of the folks who are super-stoked about full frame cameras own one already and there isn't a big reason to upgrade from a D610 to a D750.

I think they thought wi fi was going to be that thing as well, but I don't think that has turned out to be that great either. In the end, they over produce camera stocks and end up selling against the last two or three generations of their own cameras which are "good enough" for the average shooter. The price of bodies has plummeted and Sony, with their lower priced mirrorless options, has to pull the price down more than they want it to go.

They're still probably in decent shape, but they really need to cut back production even more and re think their model of releasing new cameras every twelve months for lower end models, whether or not there is any real improvement.

Last edited by Rondec; 05-16-2015 at 07:28 AM.
05-16-2015, 07:06 AM   #8
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A profit is a profit. I always laugh at these "expert" analysis. Listen dudes, tell me when they're losing money. My favourite of all time was headlines screaming " Apple losing market share", in a quarter when they increased their sales by 250,000 units. Apple has never been about market share. It's always been about profit margin, and it's always been he best in the industry. They don't compete with the bottom feeders.

So I look at numbers like this and think, Nikon is doing just fine. The rest is just "blah, blah blah," from folks who want to make a commission selling or buying Nikon stock.

05-16-2015, 07:24 AM   #9
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At some point, analyst have to realize that company can't keep increasing profit every day. Still doing a lot of money, just a little less.

Nikon is fine, still has almost half of the worldwide market share, nothing to worry about.
05-16-2015, 07:57 AM   #10
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Or to put it another way, never look at information from someone who's primary goal is to take some of your money, off the top, without guaranteeing anything at all in terms of a return to you, without extreme caution.
05-16-2015, 08:00 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Or to put it another way, never look at information from someone who's primary goal is to take some of your money, off the top, without guaranteeing anything at all in terms of a return to you, without extreme caution.
I think there is something to be said for realizing that the market is changing and figuring out the best ways in which to continue to maintain good profit in this situation. Nikon will do better in the long run if they can figure out how to diversify their offerings and also move into other arenas than just digital photography.
05-16-2015, 08:08 AM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I think there is something to be said for realizing that the market is changing and figuring out the best ways in which to continue to maintain good profit in this situation. Nikon will do better in the long run if they can figure out how to diversify their offerings and also move into other arenas than just digital photography.
Really, more profit would be nice, but just nice, that's all. Guessing how Nikon would do if they did this or that? They pay people big bucks to make those decisions.
05-16-2015, 08:34 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Really, more profit would be nice, but just nice, that's all. Guessing how Nikon would do if they did this or that? They pay people big bucks to make those decisions.
I suppose. Maybe you are immune to the idea of speculating on where the market is going, but I certainly am not. But as I look at it, companies like Sony, Canon, and for that matter Ricoh are in better shape because they have a lot of different places they are going, both in digital photography and things outside of digital photography. Even Olympus has their medical equipment to fall back on.
05-16-2015, 10:23 AM - 1 Like   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by wildman Quote
My guess, and it's only a guess, is that it has little to do with gear and much to do with a change in the mass culture.

But the gear is a reflection of culture. The Df was an attempt at this. The Fuji X-Pro and X-T1, and Olympus OM-D, all reflect a change in style and culture. They reflect a market segment. Successful products are always a reflection of the market/culture. Look at Apple vs RIM.






QuoteOriginally posted by aurele Quote
At some point, analyst have to realize that company can't keep increasing profit every day. Still doing a lot of money, just a little less. Nikon is fine, still has almost half of the worldwide market share, nothing to worry about.
Sincerely,
The President of Kodak..... and the president of every other failed company in history.


Its not about your market share today. Its about the trend. For 4 years Nikon has been taking a beating.
Nikon Stock Hits Three Year Low, Prompts Company to Restructure (2014)
Financial Woes: Nikon Cuts Sales Forecast Again, Df Pre-Orders Supposedly Subpar (2013)
Nikon Q1 financial results: net profit fell by almost 50% | Nikon Rumors (2012)


You do have to increase profits every year or you are going out of business in the tech world. There are 5 other companies working really hard to take Nikon's spot as the #2 player in the world. Ricoh, Sony, & Fuji all the resources to take down Nikon with the right products and marketing. All of them are working on gaining market share in a contracting market. Nikon is appears to be the most stagnate company in the industry. They release a lot of bodies, but its all repackaged, slightly refined old tech.
05-16-2015, 10:27 AM - 1 Like   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by osv Quote
no mention of the sony stock in there.
That's because the Earth doesn't revolve around Sony. Not every article ever written about photography or the industry has to include them.
Sorry to break the news.
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