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03-15-2016, 02:09 PM   #1
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The German site Heise.de reports that Sony outsold Canikon in FF in Nov and Dec

The German site Heise.de reports that Sony confirmed that in November and December they sold more Full Frame cameras than both Nikon and Canon. Sony sold 34% of all FF cameras and surpassed Nikon and Canon for the first time.
Source:
Sony surpassed Canon and Nikon in the German Full Frame market! | sonyalpharumors

The graphic on the above site doesn't have anything to do with that quote, so there's that. In the past, i've only see CIPA charts that list data on Interchangeable Lens Cameras without breaking it down to FF. As far as i know, the only makes of FF cameras in 2015 were Canon, Nikon, Leica and Sony. So if Sony had 34% of those total camera units, thats a big achievement in my opinion.

It would be nice is someone on PF could read German and get more information from the actual source. Hint, hint :-)

03-15-2016, 03:05 PM   #2
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As best as I can tell, the section of the c't Fotographie article at Heise.de that refers to this information says this is coming from Sony themselves. "Wenn man Sony glauben darf" basically means if Sony is to be trusted. My German is very rudimentary, so someone else can do a better job of putting this in context, but as far as I know, CIPA only publishes data for Europe as a grouping, not individual countries. Only CIPA stats come from confidentially submitted sales results from member manufacturers, so any more detailed "results" are estimates at best. My "estimate" is that the people in Germany responsible for selling Sony cameras believe these numbers to be 100% accurate, their competitors might be less sure about their accuracy.

If true, however, that means the market for full-frame DSLRs in Germany for November and December was severely depressed. If that market (which really only consists of Canon and Nikon in measurable quantities) was severely depressed for the 10 months prior to November, then Sony would be crowing about how they sold more full-frame cameras than Canon or Nikon for the entire year, not just the last two months of the year. In my "expert" analysis, that means FF camera buyers are looking for something new, not to replace the perfectly good FF body they already have, especially in time for Christmas and Sony had the only truly new thing for sale in November and December. Simply because the K-1 is something new, there is a good chance it will dominate FF body sales in some markets for short periods of time during 2016 and I don't think anyone is going to claim that Pentax is taking over the FF market.
03-15-2016, 03:13 PM   #3
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Your used car dealer told you, he alone sells "the best" cars

They were referring to this here: Sony G Master-Objektive: Erste Bilder mit FE 24-70mm F2.8 und FE 85mm F1.4 | c't Fotografie

And the core sentence is:
Code:
Wenn man Sony glauben darf, durfte sich der Hersteller zumindest in  Deutschland im November und Dezember 2015 mit etwa 34 Prozent – einem  hauchdünnen Vorsprung – Marktführer bei den Vollformatkameras nennen.
In short English:
  1. The winner was declared by himself (pure Sony marketing slogan, no facts, no sources, no independend statement)
  2. Even this only relates to two months only.
  3. German market only.
In that spirit Canon can create a dozen success stories about their Canon M series being a winner in Japan.
03-15-2016, 03:20 PM   #4
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Not even shareholders, let alone us Joe Public, are told a breakdown of sales figures. ☺

CIPA is the most reliable source of data and doesn't even give a breakdown by brand.

All else is guesses, optimistic or otherwise. ☺

03-15-2016, 11:37 PM   #5
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I very much doubt that Nikon, Canon, Sony, Ricoh planners would be happy with the general information provided by CIPA. These companies want to know right away if any part of their product lineup is lagging, falling behind, or leaping ahead of competitors. I suspect that there are companies that gather this information for their corporate clients and sell it to them. Unfortunately, the public - us - don't get access to it.

Look what happened to GOPRO. They defined a new niche of camera and sales were such that most companies immediately jumped on the gravy train with similar products. That hasn't happened yet with FF mirrorless, as far as we know with regard to advance planning. Its fun to speculate though
03-16-2016, 03:57 AM   #6
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I don't think research companies have real access to individual firms' data except by industrial espionage.

The CIPA arrangement works because it doesn't identify anyone.

You can attempt to ask certain stores what they sell and aggregate that, but extrapolating the answers would be tremendously inaccurate.
03-16-2016, 04:17 AM   #7
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Potential Canon and Nikon FF buyers were obviously holding out out for news of the K-1.
Come late April the floodgates will re-open, but in the opposite direction from usual

03-16-2016, 05:17 AM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
As best as I can tell, the section of the c't Fotographie article at Heise.de that refers to this information says this is coming from Sony themselves. "Wenn man Sony glauben darf" basically means if Sony is to be trusted. My German is very rudimentary, so someone else can do a better job of putting this in context, but as far as I know, CIPA only publishes data for Europe as a grouping, not individual countries. Only CIPA stats come from confidentially submitted sales results from member manufacturers, so any more detailed "results" are estimates at best. My "estimate" is that the people in Germany responsible for selling Sony cameras believe these numbers to be 100% accurate, their competitors might be less sure about their accuracy.

If true, however, that means the market for full-frame DSLRs in Germany for November and December was severely depressed. If that market (which really only consists of Canon and Nikon in measurable quantities) was severely depressed for the 10 months prior to November, then Sony would be crowing about how they sold more full-frame cameras than Canon or Nikon for the entire year, not just the last two months of the year. In my "expert" analysis, that means FF camera buyers are looking for something new, not to replace the perfectly good FF body they already have, especially in time for Christmas and Sony had the only truly new thing for sale in November and December. Simply because the K-1 is something new, there is a good chance it will dominate FF body sales in some markets for short periods of time during 2016 and I don't think anyone is going to claim that Pentax is taking over the FF market.
Sony is selling very well in Germany by all accounts. There is obviously a lot of Leica and Zeiss glass in Germany and Sony happens to be the poor mans Leica. The new Zeiss Loxia and Batis lenses are also selling very, very well in Germany. The Zeiss connection gives Sony an advantage in the German market that they don't have in other parts of the world, so that skews that data, but yes, the A7 line of cameras has been selling very, very well for Sony.
03-16-2016, 09:55 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
I don't think research companies have real access to individual firms' data except by industrial espionage.

The CIPA arrangement works because it doesn't identify anyone.

You can attempt to ask certain stores what they sell and aggregate that, but extrapolating the answers would be tremendously inaccurate.
CIPA information is useful for certain kinds of information, overall trends, etc. But if Sony, for example contracted a sales research company, they will obviously share their Sony shipping information with the research company, which acts as a calibration standard for the data. And then i do think this hypothetical research company would go to physical stores and store chains to get what information they could. Then internet companies could also be worked with for that data set. All without violating any laws. The retail companies benefit from being able to more accurately stock the products that are in demand. If the data collection method is standard from month to month, year to year, then trends become more identifiable.

Speaking of which, i have this program installed on my computer, which tells me they are currently blocking 2 analytical trackers and 1 advertising tracker from this PF website. If i switch to the dpreview site, the number of blocked trackers goes up to 11.
03-16-2016, 10:10 AM   #10
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Tough to know what this means.

Biggest thing is probably just that Canon and Nikon didn't have anything "new" compared Sony for these two particular months. Seems like it would be more interesting to compare a year's results.

If Pentax releases the K-1 next month and happen to out sell Sony mirrorless full frame cameras in the month of April, that means nothing if it is a little blip and Sony dominates the rest of the year.
03-16-2016, 08:05 PM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by philbaum Quote
contracted a sales research company
Yes, they undoubtedly did this, because there isn't a good alternative and data that is not 100% accurate is better than no data, especially when there are jobs to justify and the internal moneychangers want numbers to back the fluff in any proposal that involves spending Sony's money.

Major retailers might provide market share figures in exchange for rebates and if the demand is high enough, market research analysts will spend a couple days with Google and a Ouija board in order to produce some marketable charts. The most reliable method to determine if a marketing research company is pulling numbers out of their butt is to compare the amount of detail to the potential they can't get reliable information. To give a market share for only the full frame camera body market in just one country on a per month basis with with a precision of two decimal places is more informative as to the reliability of Sony's "leaked" figures than the results themselves. In market research the most reliable information is always the cheapest to obtain.

The other very telling piece of information is that Sony's leadership in this highly parameterized population is only for two months. Retail sales are anything but static, if there was a truly significant trend in these results, no one would know until at least the next November and December rolled around. But that's too long to wait to prepare sales forecasts, incentive programs and marketing strategy.

Another way to look at these results is to ask the question, what happened in the marketplace that allowed Sony to overcome the two long-standing heavyweights in such a short period of time? Do purchasers of full frame cameras change brands like they change their underwear (I won't draw any parallels to PF members, because they may not be that representative of the entire market)?

Even the writer of the original article was skeptical; in the end, even if we give Sony's anonymous German representative the benefit of doubt, will Sony gaining 34% of the German FF body market for two months be enough to keep Sony selling a line of cameras that it makes in its own factories in 2021? In my "expert" opinion, the odds are better that Sony will exit the camera manufacturing business in the next five years, either by selling that division outright or licensing trademarks to another manufacturer, than Sony rising to the top of the pile in FF camera sales to stay for the next five years.

I don't have a dog in this argument, my next mirrorless camera will be given away for free with a cell phone, just like the one I currently have. I just happen to dislike the odour that always surrounds market research companies. At least political analysts sometimes get their feet held to the fire when they are wrong.
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