Forgot Password
Pentax Camera Forums Home
 

Reply
Show Printable Version Search this Thread
03-29-2016, 05:18 AM   #1
Loyal Site Supporter
Loyal Site Supporter




Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 6,615
2016 CIPA Report

2016 January Cipa report: Digital camera sales dropped by 20%! mirrorlessrumors


From Comments:
Compacts down 28% in volume and value. Doesn't appear to be a move to higher value fixed lens cameras, just a fall across the board.

DSLRs sales down 12% in volume but a whopping 29% in value. Average camera selling price 50.1k in 2015, 40.4k yen in 2016 (19% drop).

Mirrorless sales are up 22% in volume, and 49%(!!!) in value. Average camera selling price 40.7k in 2015, 49.6k yen in 2016 (22% increase).

Regional info:

Japan - DSLRs down by 25% volume/40% value. Mirrorless down 21% volume/15% value.
Europe - DSLRs up 20% volume/down 15% value. Mirrorless up 44% volume/75%(!!!) value.
USA - DSLRs down 41% volume/54% value. Mirrorless down 53% volume/no change in value.


03-29-2016, 05:35 AM   #2
Veteran Member




Join Date: Oct 2013
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 346
So Europe has a huge mirrorless surge esp. compared to the other regions, combined with a shift to cheaper DSLRs. A preference for small and light, perhaps?

But perhaps even more interesting is the USA's apparent huge shift to high-end MILCs, even as volume drops precipitously across the board -- I'd love to see how much of that was the ɑ7 line. Especially with the average MILC selling price now being higher than that of the average DSLR, and by that much -- and considering that my biggest reason for not buying into mirrorless 2.5 years ago (when I got my K-30) was the body prices, and it seems like that's only really evened out in the past year or so. :-P

But since this is just one month of data, one also has to consider the timing of new product launches, rebates etc. ...
03-29-2016, 05:48 AM   #3
Veteran Member




Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 930
QuoteOriginally posted by Scintilla Quote
So Europe has a huge mirrorless surge esp. compared to the other regions, combined with a shift to cheaper DSLRs. A preference for small and light, perhaps?

But perhaps even more interesting is the USA's apparent huge shift to high-end MILCs, even as volume drops precipitously across the board -- I'd love to see how much of that was the ɑ7 line. Especially with the average MILC selling price now being higher than that of the average DSLR, and by that much -- and considering that my biggest reason for not buying into mirrorless 2.5 years ago (when I got my K-30) was the body prices, and it seems like that's only really evened out in the past year or so. :-P

But since this is just one month of data, one also has to consider the timing of new product launches, rebates etc. ...
Agree. Let's wait and see. I think at the date mirrorless exceeds DSLR in volume and sales, we can see the trend is finalized. Apparently the companies with the innovations will win at last.
03-29-2016, 05:49 AM   #4
Pentaxian




Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 2,945
So everywhere outside Europe mirrorless drop off the cliff in volume, especially in the US. They just can sell the really expensive ones (double the rip-off factor is massive).

For DSLRs we see that expensive models are not what customers want. Remember the amateur bloggers predicting the quick and easy win of FF models? Actually the FF niche seems to be shrinking again.

Ricoh has been very smart when pricing the K-1.

03-29-2016, 06:17 AM   #5
Veteran Member




Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 930
QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
So everywhere outside Europe mirrorless drop off the cliff in volume, especially in the US. They just can sell the really expensive ones (double the rip-off factor is massive).

For DSLRs we see that expensive models are not what customers want. Remember the amateur bloggers predicting the quick and easy win of FF models? Actually the FF niche seems to be shrinking again.

Ricoh has been very smart when pricing the K-1.
Mirrorless is also booming (even more) in Asia market, especially in China. The volume and sales in China alone sounds to be larger than the ones from transitional European, U.S or Japan market from 2012.

Last edited by starjedi; 03-29-2016 at 06:24 AM.
03-29-2016, 06:27 AM - 1 Like   #6
Pentaxian
reeftool's Avatar

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Upstate New York
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 9,089
Market saturation, plain and simple.

DSLR's and high end mirrorless cameras are too expensive to just toss away every time the next new thing comes along. The used market is also pretty saturated so you can't sell last years body without taking a huge hit. The camera manufacturers have done this to themselves, mass producing newer models every year that aren't much different than the previous model and are rushed to the market before they are ready for release. I plan on keeping a camera 5 years, longer if it's still holding up. It isn't that the new models aren't that good. They just aren't that much better to make me want to toss out an investment of several hundred dollars for a few more megapickles.
03-29-2016, 09:36 AM   #7
Site Supporter
Site Supporter




Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Gladys, Virginia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 23,662
QuoteOriginally posted by reeftool Quote
Market saturation, plain and simple.

DSLR's and high end mirrorless cameras are too expensive to just toss away every time the next new thing comes along. The used market is also pretty saturated so you can't sell last years body without taking a huge hit. The camera manufacturers have done this to themselves, mass producing newer models every year that aren't much different than the previous model and are rushed to the market before they are ready for release. I plan on keeping a camera 5 years, longer if it's still holding up. It isn't that the new models aren't that good. They just aren't that much better to make me want to toss out an investment of several hundred dollars for a few more megapickles.
I think this is the biggest difference. SLRs are a mature product. The actual difference between a D5200 and a D5300, for instance is very small. Why someone would by a D5300 if they have a functional D5200 is beyond me. And now there is a D5500. All of these cameras are available new on sites like Amazon and have minimal differences between them (besides cost). In terms of real world shooting, the differences are there, but don't seem to be drivers of new purchase.

On the other hand, mirrorless cameras are reaching a place of maturity after many iterations of sub-optimal performance. Current Sony mirrorless cameras have auto focus performance that is excellent. This has always been the biggest knock on these cameras in the past. What will get someone who has purchased an A7r II to upgrade to the next gen camera is unclear. 8K video? Better battery performance? My feeling is that folks who own current generation mirrorless cameras are likely to keep them several years as well.

In the end, I don't think most people view mirrorless and SLRs as that much different in practice. There are a few people out there firmly committed to OVFs or EVFs, but I think most folks are just looking for a certain price and a certain level of performance.

03-29-2016, 11:08 AM   #8
retired sw engineer
Loyal Site Supporter
reh321's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: South Bend, IN, USA
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 19,648
QuoteOriginally posted by reeftool Quote
Market saturation, plain and simple.

DSLR's and high end mirrorless cameras are too expensive to just toss away every time the next new thing comes along. The used market is also pretty saturated so you can't sell last years body without taking a huge hit. The camera manufacturers have done this to themselves, mass producing newer models every year that aren't much different than the previous model and are rushed to the market before they are ready for release. I plan on keeping a camera 5 years, longer if it's still holding up. It isn't that the new models aren't that good. They just aren't that much better to make me want to toss out an investment of several hundred dollars for a few more megapickles.
The Pentax Super Program I bought in 1984 last me until 1995 {and I used it again in 2005 when I had what turned out to be temporary issues with my Canon Elan}. The Canon EOS Elan that I bought in 1995 last me until 2006. Based on that experience, I expected ten years out of the Canon Rebel I bought in 2007, but when it broke I bought another one, and when it broke I came back to Pentax with a K-30 in 2015. In retrospect, so much change occurred in 2005-15 that sticking with any camera for a long time wasn't a great decision. I'm not sure what to expect out of the next ten years; I'm not sure whether we are in a pause or on a long plateau. I don't know much about Nikon products; I do know that Canon has made very little progress in the Rebel line since the T3i came out in 2011 and the competing Pentax products have made only a little more progress since the K-30 came out in 2012. Maybe the slow-down in sales, and competition between DSLR and MILC, will push / pull the companies into new territory. I do know that several things would get me back into the market within six to twelve months. A Q-S3 with an EVF would do that. A K-03 with an EVF and the guts of a K-3 would do that. Right now though, I'm going to watch what happens, and save my pennies in case they do come up with something that would be clearly superior in my context.

---------- Post added 03-29-16 at 02:12 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Scintilla Quote
... and considering that my biggest reason for not buying into mirrorless 2.5 years ago (when I got my K-30) was the body prices
I bought my K-30 just about one year ago. I did consider a K-01 then but I'd had my Q-7 for six months by then, and that experience had confirmed my "bias" in favor of viewfinders.
03-30-2016, 04:50 AM   #9
Pentaxian
mecrox's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Oxford, UK
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 2,375
I don't think it makes much difference who or what is up or down. In ten years' time, I doubt there will more more than 3-4 viable camera outfits and they'll be selling upmarket, expensive kit to serious enthusiasts and professionals only. As it is, all of the camera-makers strike me as dead men walking, unable to come to terms with the idea of the network. It's the "networked lens" as well as convenience which make the smartphone unbeatable. Some of the current camera outfits appear still to be struggling with wifi apps, so good luck to long-term survival with that kind of attitude. There will always be room for full-on serious cameras for full-on photographers, just not much room, in fact a small fraction of the room there has been over the past 15 years.

One thing often not taken into account with DSLR versus mirrorless is pronounced geographic variation, not least because of the degree to which some MILCs seem to be aimed at young, hip and often female buyers in the Far East. The Olympus Pen range is a classic example. I think we may see more attempts to keep cameras selling by repositioning them as fashion accessories but perhaps they won't be all that successful for as long as the networked lens effect is missing.
Reply

Bookmarks
  • Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook
  • Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter
  • Submit Thread to Digg Digg
Tags - Make this thread easier to find by adding keywords to it!
camera, canon, cipa, dslrs, evf, k-30, market, mirrorless, months, pentax, price, products, progress, report, sales, six, value, volume, yen
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Final Countdown to Feb 25th 2016 (CP+ 2016) starjedi Pentax News and Rumors 1654 05-23-2016 05:15 PM
My report from CP+ 2016 JPT Pentax News and Rumors 161 03-07-2016 12:58 PM
Pentax DSLR sales Japan BCN 2016 Report Imp Pentax News and Rumors 31 01-29-2016 10:24 PM
CIPA statistics for September - those DSLRs just won't die Kunzite Pentax News and Rumors 199 12-01-2015 12:49 PM
Mirror-less cameras hanging on to their sales better than DSLRs per CIPA philbaum Non-Pentax Cameras: Canon, Nikon, etc. 22 06-02-2014 09:57 AM



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 10:01 PM. | See also: NikonForums.com, CanonForums.com part of our network of photo forums!
  • Red (Default)
  • Green
  • Gray
  • Dark
  • Dark Yellow
  • Dark Blue
  • Old Red
  • Old Green
  • Old Gray
  • Dial-Up Style
Hello! It's great to see you back on the forum! Have you considered joining the community?
register
Creating a FREE ACCOUNT takes under a minute, removes ads, and lets you post! [Dismiss]
Top