Nikon Mirrorless

mecrox · 07-13-2017, 04:17 AM

Originally posted by mee

There is a fine benefit for Nikon: money!

Mirrorless ILCs are the rage right now.. difficult to hype a hype any hyper than mirrorless has been hyped. And thus there is such a demand that it would be almost crazy not to launch something to grab all the money waving in the air.

I don't expect this to be a big serious camera though along the lines of a D750/810/D5. I'm guessing more along the lines of Canon M6.. maybe with an EVF. More or less a testbed for sale. If it works out then great, all aboard. If not then easier to jettison the project and stick with known profitable ventures.

If it is going to be a "big serious camera" I doubt Nikon would talk about it in this rather haphazard way. I'd have thought confirming rumours of such a camera would immediately stall sales of existing Nikon cameras like the D750 or the D7500 until it was out there and the details fully known. On the other hand, if it is going to be a little itty-bitty nothing much camera then nothing much will change and Nikon will still be left with a severe headache about their how to maintain and grow their share of the camera market over the next few years, especially at the top end. Or maybe they really are in a mess and are thrashing around. I just can't tell. The immediate beneficiaries either way will be Sony and Fuji because without serious competition from Nikon and Canon they are just going to get stronger.

beholder3 · 07-13-2017, 04:55 AM

Originally posted by mecrox

Sony and Fuji because without serious competition from Nikon and Canon they are just going to get stronger.

There is no evidence that Fuji is nearly as well positioned in mirrorless as Canon. Same applies to Sony.
2016 BCN awards in Japan: Canon wins in almost all categories | Photo Rumors
If Canon bring out a FF mirrorless the small makers from Sony over Nikon to Fuji will tremble.

Fuji has the benefit to have a clearly define niche they sit in. Sony doesnt beyond being the first with a 36x24 sensor and Nikon just isnt there at all.

Still very interesting times ahead.

mecrox · 07-13-2017, 05:34 AM

Originally posted by beholder3

There is no evidence that Fuji is nearly as well positioned in mirrorless as Canon. Same applies to Sony.
2016 BCN awards in Japan: Canon wins in almost all categories | Photo Rumors
If Canon bring out a FF mirrorless the small makers from Sony over Nikon to Fuji will tremble.

Fuji has the benefit to have a clearly define niche they sit in. Sony doesnt beyond being the first with a 36x24 sensor and Nikon just isnt there at all.

Still very interesting times ahead.

Good points. I was thinking of Nikon's stress that they are looking for profitability at the higher end of the market, where Canon don't have mirrorless cameras, but you are right: Canon are doing very well. They've come from nowhere to second place in a couple of years while Sony's share has halved, according to the BCN Awards. Canon still haven't done anything to really challenge the DSLR realm, though, so something like an FF mirrorless is to come if it does. It's good to see Olympus hanging on in there as I like their equipment, but before long I would imagine that Canon will come out #1. I would guess that Fuji are fairly OK. They are small but very astutely focused and their users seem to regard them very highly. It's a Pentax-like situation in a way. What they do they do very well so there's no great reason to think they will implode for as long as enough people think so too. Fuji's clients have mostly come from the big DSLR-makers for a reason and it would probably take an awful lot for them to move back again. That's not true of Sony where a lot of folks appear to have hung onto their Canon (especially) or Nikon glass with adapters. They could move back in an instant and a good Canon FF mirrorless means a lot of them surely will.

photoptimist · 07-13-2017, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by Digitalis

Nikon are playing the role of undertakers. Good luck to them.

Indeed! And yet if they can resurrect the low-end from the dead, they will be rich beyond their wildest imagination.

Smartphone sales are running at 1.5 billion units a year. That's 1.5 billion potential customers using sucky smartphone cameras. If Nikon can convince just 1% of those people that they need a better camera, they'll sell 15 million units per year.

The interview mentioned "industrial lenses" which seems to refer to the lenses Nikon puts into their semiconductor lithography systems. Some of these lenses have numerical apertures brighter than f/1 (so-called "hyper NA" lenses) and extremely high edge-to-edge resolution. Sure, they're designed for monochromatic light, but there's a certain poetry to using a cousin of the lens that made the sensor to then image the world for that sensor. I could even see them doing something really exotic such as putting the sensor in a sealed immersion cell bonded to the back element of the lens. Filled with some appropriate high-index fluid, it would: 1) improve optical coupling between the lens and the sensor; 2) enable much more compact wide-angle lenses; 3) optically synthesize a curved sensor geometry for less vignetting; 4) reduce sensor dust issues; 5) even help dissipate heat from the sensor.

And Nikon surely has plenty of manufacturing capacity in their small-camera, instrument, and lithography units sitting idle so the net margins on a new high-performance compact camera could be quite high.

Thus, there's the opportunity, the technology, and the manufacturing capacity to do something really interesting.

Yet it's a huge risk because of the gulf between consumers and photographers. Although anyone who is serious about photography -- and I'm sure most of the people at Nikon are -- knows that smartphone cameras suck, the average consumer doesn't know that. If Nikon can't see beyond their own convictions of the superiority of their products, they might over-invest in a concept that is both technologically superior and yet spurned in the market.

But still, even a tiny percentage of 1.5 billion is a very big volume of sales.

felixenfeu · 07-13-2017, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by beholder3

There is no evidence that Fuji is nearly as well positioned in mirrorless as Canon. Same applies to Sony.
2016 BCN awards in Japan: Canon wins in almost all categories | Photo Rumors
If Canon bring out a FF mirrorless the small makers from Sony over Nikon to Fuji will tremble.

Fuji has the benefit to have a clearly define niche they sit in. Sony doesnt beyond being the first with a 36x24 sensor and Nikon just isnt there at all.

Still very interesting times ahead.

4.8%. I love a good underdog, but I wish poor Ricoh would do better marketing. No wonder sigma and tamron gave up. Good thing we have backward lens compatibility

Winder · 07-13-2017, 06:03 PM

Official statement: Nikon 'currently developing' new mirrorless cameras: Digital Photography Review

surfar · 07-13-2017, 06:40 PM

Lets see when it gets to market.

biz-engineer · 07-13-2017, 10:11 PM

There are two situations with mirrorless cameras (except with Leica): before you buy it and when you use it.
Before you buy it, mirrorless is the "new tech" that Pentax don't have (of course Pentax are always lagging behind , that's well known).
After you bought the mirrorless camera, turns out not to be exactly so good as what was in you dreams.
Just read here: deadspin-quote-carrot-aligned-w-bgr-2<\/title><path d="M10,3.5l3-3,3,3Z" style="fill:%23fff;stroke:%23fff"/><path d="M0,3.5H10l3-3,3,3H26" style="fill:none;stroke:%231b3a4d"/><\/svg>')}.f_branding_on.blog-group-deadspin .editor-inner.post-content .pu

We hope that Nikon will be the first company , making use of their long experience in DSLR, to make a decent full frame mirrorless camera without the flaws of the Sony Ax series and without having to recall camera due to shutter block issues like on the D750.

Jeff Lopez · 07-13-2017, 10:32 PM

well, due to that same 750 issue, now expanded to more serial numbers, you would have to be a very hardcore Nikon user to buy further products..I mean, hey its the 600 , the 800, the 750, the 3400...would you dare? I would had lost faith long time ago..

mee · 07-13-2017, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Jeff Lopez

well, due to that same 750 issue, now expanded to more serial numbers, you would have to be a very hardcore Nikon user to buy further products..I mean, hey its the 600 , the 800, the 750, the 3400...would you dare? I would had lost faith long time ago..

The D750 is still a very nice camera. And, think of it this way, Nikon offer a free brand new shutter for your camera. So you can shoot tens of thousands of shots and then get an essentially new camera all over again for free.

That said, that can only drop the value of that body.. who is going to buy a used one between grey market bodies potentially being blacklisted from Nikon repair and the shutter failure issue? it is a very risky buy.

I'd only buy brand new with a long warranty. Because, I think with that camera, there is more probability of using the warranty eventually.

But I'm more confused why Nikon simply didn't redesign the shutter mechanism years ago, when they first saw this problem! Instead of, what it seems like Nikon did in, simply replacing the faulty shutter with a brand new shutter of the same faulty design. I've seen several reports of people having the shutter in their D750 replaced more than once for the same issue. At some point it has to be cheaper to spend the R&D on resolving the defect than just simply burning cash on replacing defective shutters with another defectively designed shutter... it is going to break again and you're going to be repairing it, on your (Nikon's) dime again.

Jeff Lopez · 07-13-2017, 11:29 PM

maybe there's a shutter agreement with Copal? exclusive, the one Nikon cant get out of?

**TwoUptons** · 07-14-2017, 11:09 AM

When I think Nikon mirrorless, I think antique rangefinder, and that doesn't seem like a good path for them...

When I think modern premium rangefinder, I think 4/3, Fuji, and Sony (with Leica as a special case).

That second path has risks, too... If they do APS or FF, they're right in the middle of Sony's market. Is Sony going to cut them great deals on the most modern chips? Or will Nikon be stuck with last season's chips?

That would put Nikon perpetually one step behind in fancy features. Can they do their magic on old chips and stay the market leader? Or maybe they have a separate chip supplier for the mirrorless...

Maybe they're buying 1" Samsung chips or something...

-Eric

mee · 07-14-2017, 12:02 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by Jeff Lopez

maybe there's a shutter agreement with Copal? exclusive, the one Nikon cant get out of?

Possibly. Yet the D610 and D810 don't seem to be affected.

There must be hardware differences as to why they simply don't just use the shutter for either in the D750.

That said, kudos to Nikon for at least admitting to the issue. Pentax on the other hand sweeps the K-30/K-50 aperture motor failure and SDM failures under the rug.

RonHendriks1966 · 07-14-2017, 12:06 PM

Originally posted by felixenfeu

4.8%. I love a good underdog, but I wish poor Ricoh would do better marketing. No wonder sigma and tamron gave up. Good thing we have backward lens compatibility

That is for Japan I asume. So that are 38.708 units compared to cipa figures. If completely correct. This does make sense since sales in yen stayed flat and thus less, but more expensive, units sold. So marketshare worldwide would be like 0,8 - 0,9 % at best.

Jeff Lopez · 07-14-2017, 12:07 PM

Originally posted by mee

Possibly. Yet the D610 and D810 don't seem to be affected.

There must be hardware differences as to why they simply don't just use the shutter for either in the D750.

That said, kudos to Nikon for at least admitting to the issue. Pentax on the other hand sweeps the K-30/K-50 aperture motor failure and SDM failures under the rug.

good point there..

07-14-2017, 12:06 PM	#44
RonHendriks1966 Banned Join Date: Jan 2009 Photos: Gallery Posts: 9,675	Originally posted by felixenfeu 4.8%. I love a good underdog, but I wish poor Ricoh would do better marketing. No wonder sigma and tamron gave up. Good thing we have backward lens compatibility That is for Japan I asume. So that are 38.708 units compared to cipa figures. If completely correct. This does make sense since sales in yen stayed flat and thus less, but more expensive, units sold. So marketshare worldwide would be like 0,8 - 0,9 % at best. Last edited by RonHendriks1966; 07-14-2017 at 12:12 PM.

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Mirrorless sales collapsing worse than -30% in Japan the homecountry of mirrorless	beholder3	Photographic Industry and Professionals	21	04-05-2017 04:58 AM
Canon and Nikon mirrorless full frame for Photokina? Rumour	philbaum	Canon, Nikon, Sony, and Other Camera Brands	10	08-16-2016 09:54 AM
Nikon buys Samsung NX Mirrorless Technology	philbaum	Canon, Nikon, Sony, and Other Camera Brands	45	12-07-2015 07:13 AM
Nikon mirrorless and Q will differ substantially	falconeye	Canon, Nikon, Sony, and Other Camera Brands	22	11-17-2011 11:41 AM
Nikon V1 and J1: the new mirrorless cameras from Nikon	ogl	Canon, Nikon, Sony, and Other Camera Brands	81	09-23-2011 02:11 AM

07-13-2017, 04:17 AM	#31
mecrox Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Oxford, UK Photos: Gallery Posts: 2,375	Originally posted by mee There is a fine benefit for Nikon: money! Mirrorless ILCs are the rage right now.. difficult to hype a hype any hyper than mirrorless has been hyped. And thus there is such a demand that it would be almost crazy not to launch something to grab all the money waving in the air. I don't expect this to be a big serious camera though along the lines of a D750/810/D5. I'm guessing more along the lines of Canon M6.. maybe with an EVF. More or less a testbed for sale. If it works out then great, all aboard. If not then easier to jettison the project and stick with known profitable ventures. If it is going to be a "big serious camera" I doubt Nikon would talk about it in this rather haphazard way. I'd have thought confirming rumours of such a camera would immediately stall sales of existing Nikon cameras like the D750 or the D7500 until it was out there and the details fully known. On the other hand, if it is going to be a little itty-bitty nothing much camera then nothing much will change and Nikon will still be left with a severe headache about their how to maintain and grow their share of the camera market over the next few years, especially at the top end. Or maybe they really are in a mess and are thrashing around. I just can't tell. The immediate beneficiaries either way will be Sony and Fuji because without serious competition from Nikon and Canon they are just going to get stronger.

07-13-2017, 04:55 AM	#32
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112	Originally posted by mecrox Sony and Fuji because without serious competition from Nikon and Canon they are just going to get stronger. There is no evidence that Fuji is nearly as well positioned in mirrorless as Canon. Same applies to Sony. 2016 BCN awards in Japan: Canon wins in almost all categories \| Photo Rumors If Canon bring out a FF mirrorless the small makers from Sony over Nikon to Fuji will tremble. Fuji has the benefit to have a clearly define niche they sit in. Sony doesnt beyond being the first with a 36x24 sensor and Nikon just isnt there at all. Still very interesting times ahead.

07-13-2017, 05:34 AM	#33
mecrox Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Oxford, UK Photos: Gallery Posts: 2,375	Originally posted by beholder3 There is no evidence that Fuji is nearly as well positioned in mirrorless as Canon. Same applies to Sony. 2016 BCN awards in Japan: Canon wins in almost all categories \| Photo Rumors If Canon bring out a FF mirrorless the small makers from Sony over Nikon to Fuji will tremble. Fuji has the benefit to have a clearly define niche they sit in. Sony doesnt beyond being the first with a 36x24 sensor and Nikon just isnt there at all. Still very interesting times ahead. Good points. I was thinking of Nikon's stress that they are looking for profitability at the higher end of the market, where Canon don't have mirrorless cameras, but you are right: Canon are doing very well. They've come from nowhere to second place in a couple of years while Sony's share has halved, according to the BCN Awards. Canon still haven't done anything to really challenge the DSLR realm, though, so something like an FF mirrorless is to come if it does. It's good to see Olympus hanging on in there as I like their equipment, but before long I would imagine that Canon will come out #1. I would guess that Fuji are fairly OK. They are small but very astutely focused and their users seem to regard them very highly. It's a Pentax-like situation in a way. What they do they do very well so there's no great reason to think they will implode for as long as enough people think so too. Fuji's clients have mostly come from the big DSLR-makers for a reason and it would probably take an awful lot for them to move back again. That's not true of Sony where a lot of folks appear to have hung onto their Canon (especially) or Nikon glass with adapters. They could move back in an instant and a good Canon FF mirrorless means a lot of them surely will.

07-13-2017, 06:39 AM	#34
photoptimist Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2016 Photos: Albums Posts: 5,123	Originally posted by Digitalis Nikon are playing the role of undertakers. Good luck to them. Indeed! And yet if they can resurrect the low-end from the dead, they will be rich beyond their wildest imagination. Smartphone sales are running at 1.5 billion units a year. That's 1.5 billion potential customers using sucky smartphone cameras. If Nikon can convince just 1% of those people that they need a better camera, they'll sell 15 million units per year. The interview mentioned "industrial lenses" which seems to refer to the lenses Nikon puts into their semiconductor lithography systems. Some of these lenses have numerical apertures brighter than f/1 (so-called "hyper NA" lenses) and extremely high edge-to-edge resolution. Sure, they're designed for monochromatic light, but there's a certain poetry to using a cousin of the lens that made the sensor to then image the world for that sensor. I could even see them doing something really exotic such as putting the sensor in a sealed immersion cell bonded to the back element of the lens. Filled with some appropriate high-index fluid, it would: 1) improve optical coupling between the lens and the sensor; 2) enable much more compact wide-angle lenses; 3) optically synthesize a curved sensor geometry for less vignetting; 4) reduce sensor dust issues; 5) even help dissipate heat from the sensor. And Nikon surely has plenty of manufacturing capacity in their small-camera, instrument, and lithography units sitting idle so the net margins on a new high-performance compact camera could be quite high. Thus, there's the opportunity, the technology, and the manufacturing capacity to do something really interesting. Yet it's a huge risk because of the gulf between consumers and photographers. Although anyone who is serious about photography -- and I'm sure most of the people at Nikon are -- knows that smartphone cameras suck, the average consumer doesn't know that. If Nikon can't see beyond their own convictions of the superiority of their products, they might over-invest in a concept that is both technologically superior and yet spurned in the market. But still, even a tiny percentage of 1.5 billion is a very big volume of sales.

07-13-2017, 08:07 AM	#35
felixenfeu New Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Montreal Photos: Gallery Posts: 23	Originally posted by beholder3 There is no evidence that Fuji is nearly as well positioned in mirrorless as Canon. Same applies to Sony. 2016 BCN awards in Japan: Canon wins in almost all categories \| Photo Rumors If Canon bring out a FF mirrorless the small makers from Sony over Nikon to Fuji will tremble. Fuji has the benefit to have a clearly define niche they sit in. Sony doesnt beyond being the first with a 36x24 sensor and Nikon just isnt there at all. Still very interesting times ahead. 4.8%. I love a good underdog, but I wish poor Ricoh would do better marketing. No wonder sigma and tamron gave up. Good thing we have backward lens compatibility

07-13-2017, 06:03 PM	#36
Winder Veteran Member Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Tennessee Posts: 6,617 Original Poster	Official statement: Nikon 'currently developing' new mirrorless cameras: Digital Photography Review

07-13-2017, 06:40 PM	#37
surfar Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: mid nth coast,nsw Photos: Gallery Posts: 6,141	Lets see when it gets to market.

07-13-2017, 10:11 PM	#38
biz-engineer Pentaxian Join Date: Feb 2015 Photos: Gallery Posts: 12,232	There are two situations with mirrorless cameras (except with Leica): before you buy it and when you use it. Before you buy it, mirrorless is the "new tech" that Pentax don't have (of course Pentax are always lagging behind , that's well known). After you bought the mirrorless camera, turns out not to be exactly so good as what was in you dreams. Just read here: deadspin-quote-carrot-aligned-w-bgr-2<\/title><path d="M10,3.5l3-3,3,3Z" style="fill:%23fff;stroke:%23fff"/><path d="M0,3.5H10l3-3,3,3H26" style="fill:none;stroke:%231b3a4d"/><\/svg>')}.f_branding_on.blog-group-deadspin .editor-inner.post-content .pu We hope that Nikon will be the first company , making use of their long experience in DSLR, to make a decent full frame mirrorless camera without the flaws of the Sony Ax series and without having to recall camera due to shutter block issues like on the D750.

07-13-2017, 10:32 PM	#39
Jeff Lopez Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 531	well, due to that same 750 issue, now expanded to more serial numbers, you would have to be a very hardcore Nikon user to buy further products..I mean, hey its the 600 , the 800, the 750, the 3400...would you dare? I would had lost faith long time ago..

07-13-2017, 10:45 PM	#40
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by Jeff Lopez well, due to that same 750 issue, now expanded to more serial numbers, you would have to be a very hardcore Nikon user to buy further products..I mean, hey its the 600 , the 800, the 750, the 3400...would you dare? I would had lost faith long time ago.. The D750 is still a very nice camera. And, think of it this way, Nikon offer a free brand new shutter for your camera. So you can shoot tens of thousands of shots and then get an essentially new camera all over again for free. That said, that can only drop the value of that body.. who is going to buy a used one between grey market bodies potentially being blacklisted from Nikon repair and the shutter failure issue? it is a very risky buy. I'd only buy brand new with a long warranty. Because, I think with that camera, there is more probability of using the warranty eventually. But I'm more confused why Nikon simply didn't redesign the shutter mechanism years ago, when they first saw this problem! Instead of, what it seems like Nikon did in, simply replacing the faulty shutter with a brand new shutter of the same faulty design. I've seen several reports of people having the shutter in their D750 replaced more than once for the same issue. At some point it has to be cheaper to spend the R&D on resolving the defect than just simply burning cash on replacing defective shutters with another defectively designed shutter... it is going to break again and you're going to be repairing it, on your (Nikon's) dime again.

07-13-2017, 11:29 PM	#41
Jeff Lopez Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 531	maybe there's a shutter agreement with Copal? exclusive, the one Nikon cant get out of?

07-14-2017, 11:09 AM	#42
TwoUptons Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Nov 2015 Photos: Albums Posts: 4,214	When I think Nikon mirrorless, I think antique rangefinder, and that doesn't seem like a good path for them... When I think modern premium rangefinder, I think 4/3, Fuji, and Sony (with Leica as a special case). That second path has risks, too... If they do APS or FF, they're right in the middle of Sony's market. Is Sony going to cut them great deals on the most modern chips? Or will Nikon be stuck with last season's chips? That would put Nikon perpetually one step behind in fancy features. Can they do their magic on old chips and stay the market leader? Or maybe they have a separate chip supplier for the mirrorless... Maybe they're buying 1" Samsung chips or something... -Eric

07-14-2017, 12:02 PM - 1 Like	#43
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by Jeff Lopez maybe there's a shutter agreement with Copal? exclusive, the one Nikon cant get out of? Possibly. Yet the D610 and D810 don't seem to be affected. There must be hardware differences as to why they simply don't just use the shutter for either in the D750. That said, kudos to Nikon for at least admitting to the issue. Pentax on the other hand sweeps the K-30/K-50 aperture motor failure and SDM failures under the rug.

07-14-2017, 12:07 PM	#45
Jeff Lopez Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 531	Originally posted by mee Possibly. Yet the D610 and D810 don't seem to be affected. There must be hardware differences as to why they simply don't just use the shutter for either in the D750. That said, kudos to Nikon for at least admitting to the issue. Pentax on the other hand sweeps the K-30/K-50 aperture motor failure and SDM failures under the rug. good point there..