[surfar]

So looks like M/l is increasing, Dslr is decreasing.

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Last edited by surfar; 02-13-2018 at 02:34 AM.

[BigMackCam]

I suspect this a natural balancing process. Highly capable DSLRs have been around for some time, but mirrorless technology only started to mature in the last few years. Some would say mirrorless development still has a long way to go in order to match DSLR in some areas. That said, the recent crop of mirrorless cameras offer a genuine alternative, and more people are trying them to see if they'll get along with the different experience. Some will stay, some will go back to DSLR...

[TomB_tx]

I expect this trend is more of a transition. The last real disadvantage of mirrorless is the limited dynamic range of the EVF, making shadows black out in high contrast scenes so you can't see the details in the VF. Resolution, latency, etc. are constantly improving. While there is still something esthetically "magic" about viewing a true groundglass image, the complexity of the reflex mechanism makes the simplicity of mirrorless compelling. With the advances in electronic shutters even mechanical shutters will fade.
I still use SLRs for film with long lenses, but haven't used a dSLR since getting used to the A7. (But 90% of my shooting is with Leica Rangefinders - still mirrorless, but with optical VF.)

[D1N0]

The mirrorless share will keep increasing in the following years as Canon and Nikon get more serious about it. (In Aps-c Canon already is, but lenses....). This is also great news for third party lens builders, for they can fill the inevitable gaps in the line ups.

[Winder]

The trend towards mirrorless is going to continue unless DSLR manufacturers can bring the advantages of mirrorless to the DSLR. DSLR manufacturers have been making incremental improvements for years while mirrorless has been advancing at a very rapid pace. Shooting with the A9's silent, no blackout shutter with lighting fast face detection and eye AF/tracking has been awesome. I don't miss the OVF at all. I don't even think about it.

[BarryE]

Shooting with the A9's silent, no blackout shutter with lighting fast face detection and eye AF/tracking has been awesome. I don't miss the OVF at all. I don't even think about it.

Trees, mountains, rivers, don't have faces or get spooked by a noisy shutter

[Winder]

Trees, mountains, rivers, don't have faces or get spooked by a noisy shutter

No they don't and they don't pay people to come take pictures either. The majority of the photographers who make a living in photography are photographing people, not rocks.

[BigMackCam]

The trend towards mirrorless is going to continue unless DSLR manufacturers can bring the advantages of mirrorless to the DSLR. DSLR manufacturers have been making incremental improvements for years while mirrorless has been advancing at a very rapid pace. Shooting with the A9's silent, no blackout shutter with lighting fast face detection and eye AF/tracking has been awesome. I don't miss the OVF at all. I don't even think about it.

DSLRs have been around a lot longer, the technology is more mature (the mechanical side being derived from SLRs), and the electro-mechanical limits of reflex systems mean we're not likely to see the huge jumps in performance that mirrorless cameras are experiencing. But many people will happily accept this in order to shoot with an optical viewfinder. Some folks simply don't like EVFs - even with the latest cameras - and I can understand that (even though I rather like them). All the high speed continuous and silent shooting is no good to those who really don't get on with EVFs...

[IgorZ]

Given equivalent image quality, the only feature of mirrorless cameras that is really attractive to me is the ability to adapt any lens.

[Winder]

DSLRs have been around a lot longer, the technology is more mature (the mechanical side being derived from SLRs), and the electro-mechanical limits of reflex systems mean we're not likely to see the huge jumps in performance that mirrorless cameras are experiencing. But many people will happily accept this in order to shoot with an optical viewfinder. Some folks simply don't like EVFs - even with the latest cameras - and I can understand that (even though I rather like them). All the high speed continuous and silent shooting is no good to those who really don't get on with EVFs...

Most people who say they don't like EVFs have never used one of the current generation of EVFs for any extended period. The experience of capturing an image is important, but not as important as actually capturing the image. I enjoy working with an OVF and I enjoy using manual focus lenses, but for what I do and how I work the modern EVF with AF is more important than my user experience.

The upcoming generation of photographer got started taking pictures with a smartphone. The digital viewfinder is natural and as they mover up to real ILCs they are gravitating toward mirrorless. There will always be people who prefer the OVF just as there are people who still shoot with rangefinders, 8x10 large format and 20"x24" Polaroid. The mass market is moving more and more toward mirrorless. How far will it go? I don't know, but I can easily see mirrorless sales exceeding DSLR sales in 5 years.

[BigMackCam]

Most people who say they don't like EVFs have never used one of the current generation of EVFs for any extended period. The experience of capturing an image is important, but not as important as actually capturing the image. I enjoy working with an OVF and I enjoy using manual focus lenses, but for what I do and how I work the modern EVF with AF is more important than my user experience.

The upcoming generation of photographer got started taking pictures with a smartphone. The digital viewfinder is natural and as they mover up to real ILCs they are gravitating toward mirrorless. There will always be people who prefer the OVF just as there are people who still shoot with rangefinders, 8x10 large format and 20"x24" Polaroid. The mass market is moving more and more toward mirrorless. How far will it go? I don't know, but I can easily see mirrorless sales exceeding DSLR sales in 5 years.

You make some good points... I'm just not sure I agree with them

Firstly, EVFs... I don't doubt that the latest EVFs on cameras such as the A9 and A7RIII are fantastic. But then, I really like the EVF on my A7 MkII... I even like the one on my Sony A99-based Hasselblad HV. I like both of them a lot. But I also know there are plenty of people who just can't get on with them... and it's not just the way the view is displayed, it's the fact that it doesn't look the same as optical rendering. Plus, some people claim (and I have no reason to doubt these claims) that they get headaches or nausea from using EVFs for any reasonable amount of time (I hear the same complaints from some users of VR headsets). I realise that higher frame refresh rates and reduction in lag on newer EVFs should significantly reduce those problems, but by definition of the A-to-D conversion process, there will always be some lag, however small.

As for those who got started taking pictures with a smartphone... I'm in my late 40s and I got started in photography with compact digital cameras, using their LCD screens for composition. Around 2008 or 2009, I got my first DSLR and fell in love with the optical viewfinder. Nowadays, I shoot both OVF and EVF. There are advantages to each that the other can't yet match. I prefer the look of an OVF... but I often prefer the functionality - for my own personal use-cases - of an EVF.

But I do think you have a point that the younger generation are more comfortable with digitised views in almost any application, and camera-buying population will therefore increasingly lean towards those who will accept (if not always prefer) EVFs

[mecrox]

I guess the mirrorless vs DSLR thang is a mix:

1. A new generation coming up on smartphones has no trouble with any alleged newfangledness about EVFs and mirrorless cameras. For them, it's all quite natural.
2. Mirrorless camera companies have been far more astute than the DSLR crowd in capturing attention via marketing and by following fashion and the general zeitgeist.
3. Mirrorless probably has manufacturing advantages for companies - fewer parts, easier for automated assembly.
4. Mirrorless companies have been quick to jump on video. DSLR ones not so quick or hardly at all.
5. Running so much off the sensor enables things like face and eye detection, almost unlimited focusing points, WYSIWYG in the viewfinder, lightning fast AF - things DSLRs haven't really managed, not in the VF.
6. Mirrorless camera companies have no legacy baggage to worry about. They've been astute in building out systems quickly. Generally, they now have very full offers, lenses and all. And with the exception of Sony, there is no playing off APS-C against FF a la Nikon or Canon.
7. Mirrorless cameras offer growth to hungry companies. It's the only sector which is growing year on year. This is crack to corporate beancounters. It won't last but I'm sure plenty will pile in hoping for a slice of the pie.

I'd like to think there will always be room for both kinds of camera. A sad day if there wasn't. But I'd guess that DSLRs will gradually become something for specialists or for the older crowd who don't want to start over with new tech. Many seem to think that with a couple of years, mirrorless cameras and DSLRs will be at parity, by value if not by volume, and from there they'll likely become dominant. Now that most of the technical challenges in making them seem to have been mastered, they have most definitely arrived.

[reh321]

So-called "electronic shutters" will have issues until global shutters {actually do take entire picture at once} become practical


I don't have issues with detail in EVF. I figure out my shot before I put the camera to my eye, so EVF just has to be good enough for me to figure out my aiming points.

[K-9]

Most people who say they don't like EVFs have never used one of the current generation of EVFs for any extended period.

I had said I never liked them up until the point I purchased one. And I have a body that was released in 2012, so I'm sure they've even gotten better in these next 6 years. Given the choice, I prefer the optical, but have no issues using an EVF just the same. The only thing I've run into is when quickly firing multiple frames, but that's more of an issue with my camera's buffer than the EVF.

[ffking]

In one way the ILC market is remarkably independent from all the changes going on the sector - the numbers are slowly decreasing for sure, and that set against a growing world population, but they are quite stubborn compared to other trends.I suspect that DSLRs will settle at a slightly lower volume than at present, but will prove the most stubborn part of that sector - for a few years at least, until there's nobody left who grew up with OVFs of any type