Forgot Password
Pentax Camera Forums Home
 

Reply
Show Printable Version Search this Thread
03-14-2018, 01:54 PM   #1
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: mid nth coast,nsw
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 5,608
When will mirrorless hit 50%???

yes, photo Pessimists!...its happening....for every mirrorless sold last year around 1.8 Dslrs were sold.In 2016 2.3.

Canon have announced M/L is a sector of the market they are attacking.

Attached Images
 
03-14-2018, 02:06 PM   #2
Veteran Member




Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Slovenia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 2,182
That's pretty funny actually. When the G1 was announced we talked amongst friends in school and I said it'll probably take about 10 years. Must have been some kind of wonderkid nostradamus.
03-14-2018, 03:57 PM   #3
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: mid nth coast,nsw
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 5,608
Original Poster
Interesting chart?
Attached Images
 
03-14-2018, 04:12 PM   #4
Veteran Member




Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: Tokyo
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 1,041
Just my feeling from every weekend walk in Tokyo taking a photo. I think I am seeing more people with Sony FF mirrorless than large DSLR Canon and Nikon combined now.
5-6 years ago it was Canon + Nikon everywhere.
Now, 7-8 out of 10 are either Sony FF or Fuji aps-c. hardly see Nikon anymore. I think I see more K1 user than Nikon user. not sure what happened to that brand.
Another interesting thing is Pentax, I used to see a lot more Pentax user during its K-3 days, but not that many now. If I see one, it almost guarantees to be a K1 user (or me walking pass a mirror!) I guess, a lot of Pentax APS-C user had switched to K1... again, it's just my feeling.
it funny when looking
back to those days before K1, people at Pentax (or Ricoh) seems to think that they didn't need a FF body but when they make one, it makes so much money for the brand. hope they don't think the same about the mirrorless market now...


Last edited by pakinjapan; 03-14-2018 at 04:25 PM.
03-14-2018, 04:43 PM   #5
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: mid nth coast,nsw
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 5,608
Original Poster
QuoteOriginally posted by pakinjapan Quote
hope they don't think the same about the mirrorless market now...
Yes, but with 2 attempts @ M/L i'm not sure what RI are thinking especially with resources spread so thin.The pie can only be split so many ways.
Its interesting what you are observing,Dslrs are on the decline as most know.M/L are becoming better and better, Fuji/Sony are both into their 3rd generation(FF and Apsc)respectively and are attracting increasing market share.
03-14-2018, 06:09 PM   #6
Loyal Site Supporter
Loyal Site Supporter




Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 6,615
Without information on the vertical axis to give context and scale they don't tell us a whole lot. Mirrorless is growing and DSLRs are shrinking, but we don't know by how much or how fast really.
03-14-2018, 06:20 PM   #7
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: mid nth coast,nsw
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 5,608
Original Poster
QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
we don't know by how much or how fast really.
Yes,"we" do...look at the thread M/L v Dslr...past sales figures are on there.

03-14-2018, 07:09 PM   #8
Pentaxian
KiloHotelphoto's Avatar

Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Glen Mills, PA
Photos: Albums
Posts: 872
Other than the quiet shutter I don’t see the big deal about mirrorless cameras. I know they are becoming more popular but I’ve only seen two out in the real world.

Being able to see your exposure in the evf could be nice also, the other day shooting after it snowed with blue sunny skies I had a hard time seeing anything in the ovf. Not sure if mirrorless would help there.
03-14-2018, 10:30 PM - 1 Like   #9
Pentaxian




Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: North
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 4,473
The still less explored FF MILC route is the stylish/hipster/retro camera + small lenses route.
Think a digital ME super with pseudo M lenses that have AF. (have to give up on fast apertures and manual focusing).


Laymen with the cash want, small, easy to use, stylish and a perceived ability to be keeping up with the Jones' wrt camera capabiity, so there might be a market here.
03-14-2018, 10:50 PM   #10
Site Supporter
Site Supporter
RobA_Oz's Avatar

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Tasmania, Australia
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 6,863
Four weeks in Europe last year, and I barely saw a Sony A7/9, even among Asian tourists (the smaller mirrorless bodies seemed to take precedence). Given that such does not seem to be the case in Japan, I can't help wondering if Japanese uptake is skewing the figures, and the growth will taper off when the Japanese market hits saturation, assuming European and US uptake doesn't lift later, as may still happen, of course.
03-15-2018, 12:42 AM   #11
Veteran Member




Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Albuquerque NM
Photos: Albums
Posts: 428
QuoteOriginally posted by surfar Quote
yes, photo Pessimists!...its happening....for every mirrorless sold last year around 1.8 Dslrs were sold.In 2016 2.3.

Canon have announced M/L is a sector of the market they are attacking.
Why this important. Why you make this typical evolution process to melodramatic. Some buy DSLR some mirroless. .two factor here one : advertisement and price. Second factor weight. size. plus ability good lenses. Same competition Samsung and Apple
DSLR not go anywhere .Mirroless created own market .
.
03-15-2018, 01:41 AM   #12
Pentaxian




Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: mid nth coast,nsw
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 5,608
Original Poster
QuoteOriginally posted by dstar Quote
Why this important. Why you make this typical evolution process to melodramatic
Yes,not important...However,with what is going to happen this year and next,I find interesting!...Funnily enough,some others may be interested too.If you are not doesnt matter.
The fact CaNikony will have a ding dong battle for the M/L FF sector will be fun to watch.It'll be good to see what additional features they bring and if prices come down?

M/L is still young but progressing at a reasonable rate.
03-15-2018, 02:48 AM   #13
Pentaxian
mecrox's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Oxford, UK
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 2,375
I’ve seen a few articles claiming mirrorless and DSLR will reach parity in 2019 after which mirrorless will pull ahead, but whether by volume or value I don’t know.

A lot of things could affect this, such as the world economic situation and whether Canon and Nikon enter the mirrorless market with a bang and use their marketing muscle to influence customer perceptions. They might make a poor job of it, though.

Another possibility is that Canon flood the Asian market with cheap M series cameras. This might give them the increased marketshare they say they crave. However, you would then get a layer cake. At the lower end mirrorless would be taking a larger share, but at the top end DSLRs would be doing better because there is a much stronger range of DSLRs to choose from.

I’m sure the changeover will happen. But it will take a while and DSLRs aren’t about to disappear anyway. Maybe in 7-10 years, but not today. They still have strengths mirrorless cameras are only just beginning to approach, such as the pro sports machines, ruggedness and reliability, not to mention the simply vast pool of DSLR equipment already out there.

Overall, maybe two things will help sell mirrorless. The first is all the features which DSLRs don’t offer, and which are only going to become even more whizbang over the next few years, and the second is that they are more similar to smartphones, for the younger generation.

What Canon and Nikon do over the next 12-18 months is going to make a big difference.

Last edited by mecrox; 03-15-2018 at 03:00 AM.
03-15-2018, 03:50 AM - 1 Like   #14
Pentaxian




Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Romania
Posts: 14,280
QuoteOriginally posted by mecrox Quote
Iíve seen a few articles claiming mirrorless and DSLR will reach parity in 2019 after which mirrorless will pull ahead, but whether by volume or value I donít know.
I've seen "articles" stating that DSLRs would be dead within 5 years... more than 5 years ago.
Anyone can write "articles".
03-15-2018, 04:41 AM - 1 Like   #15
Pentaxian
mecrox's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Oxford, UK
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 2,375
QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
I've seen "articles" stating that DSLRs would be dead within 5 years... more than 5 years ago.
Anyone can write "articles".
Denial is a river in Egypt Mirrorless cameras are on the rise for certain sure, but that doesn't mean DSLRs are suddenly about to disappear. Around 5-10 years would seem the typical run-out period for a technology changeover. Canon and Nikon are yet to show their hand and mirrorless has yet to show it can really come up with the goods in the rugged, D5/1DX kind of areas. I'd guess it will but not before an iteration or two down the road. The Sony A9 is a sighting shot. We'll see, but that there writing is very clearly on the wall these days.

Last edited by mecrox; 03-15-2018 at 05:11 AM.
Reply

Bookmarks
  • Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook
  • Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter
  • Submit Thread to Digg Digg
Tags - Make this thread easier to find by adding keywords to it!
cameras, cost, display, eyes, mirrorless, motion, rate, reaction, sensors, sickness, time
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
So.. my camera hit the ground.. kooks Repairs and Warranty Service 10 11-26-2017 11:50 PM
Mirrorless sales collapsing worse than -30% in Japan the homecountry of mirrorless beholder3 Photographic Industry and Professionals 21 04-05-2017 04:58 AM
Pentax 645z took a hit and needs service. valvicphoto Pentax Medium Format 7 10-03-2016 05:37 AM
Macro Hit or Miss? DW58 Photo Critique 8 05-17-2016 07:32 AM
Corporate Profits Just Hit An All-Time High, Wages Just Hit An All-Time Low Read mor jeffkrol General Talk 7 06-26-2012 02:56 PM



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 08:15 PM. | See also: NikonForums.com, CanonForums.com part of our network of photo forums!
  • Red (Default)
  • Green
  • Gray
  • Dark
  • Dark Yellow
  • Dark Blue
  • Old Red
  • Old Green
  • Old Gray
  • Dial-Up Style
Hello! It's great to see you back on the forum! Have you considered joining the community?
register
Creating a FREE ACCOUNT takes under a minute, removes ads, and lets you post! [Dismiss]
Top