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05-13-2018, 06:54 AM   #1
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Fuji Predicts Canon & Nikon Will Loose 50% of Their Current Market Share

Is This the End for Canon and Nikon? Rival Predicts 50 Percent Market Share Loss Within Three Years | Fstoppers

05-13-2018, 06:58 AM - 3 Likes   #2
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Wow, bold predictions from a company that wasn’t in the game until a few years ago.

Will watch and wait on this one. Getting the popcorn ready.
05-13-2018, 07:00 AM - 2 Likes   #3
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Really, who cares? Fuji's attempt at a self fulfilling prophecy.
I didn't listen to all the IBM freaks who said Apple was dead either.

A company who believes they know what will happen in the future is not too be trusted.

Last edited by normhead; 05-13-2018 at 09:46 AM.
05-13-2018, 07:54 AM - 1 Like   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by gm4life Quote
Wow, bold predictions from a company that wasn’t in the game until a few years ago.

Will watch and wait on this one. Getting the popcorn ready.
If the price of stacked sensors continues to fall, you will see mirrorless cameras exceed DSLRs in speed. The A9 already smokes the 1Dx and D5 in terms for fps, but its a very expensive sensor to produce. Fuji has also been working with Panasonic on organic sensor technology. They are 3 years behind schedule, but there is a lot of potential there in terms of DR. Sony, Fuji, & Panasonic are all working on technology that can move mirrorless forward. DSLRs seem to be pretty mature. Hybrid OVFs don't seem to be a going anywhere, and I don't see a lot of innovation coming out of Nikon or Canon. Canon files more patents than anyone, but very few ever see the light of day.

If Canon or Nikon thought they could integrate the advantages of mirrorless into a DSLR platform they would have no reason to product a mirrorless body, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

05-13-2018, 08:02 AM - 1 Like   #5
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There's no reason those sensors can't be used on non-mirrorless cameras.
05-13-2018, 08:18 AM - 1 Like   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Really, who cares? Fuji's attempt at a self fulfilling prophecy.
I didn't listen to all the IBM freaks who said Apple was dead either.

A company who believes they know what will happen in the future is not too e trusted.
But maybe they are taking this space quite rapidly which will cause Canikon to panic and make bad choices...?

From the inside, I'd say that IBM got it wrong with Apple as they perhaps did not see that low function, proprietary, products with ridiculously high prices, would catch on, albeit styled nicely. Highly tuned to the consumer market was never IBM's focus, whereas Apple made some clever, consumer calls. Maybe, Fuji are seeing that light, styled, good enough quality cameras is where the market is moving after consumers step-up from camera phones. High function and capable is not what most fickle, convenience buyers want. Canon and Nikon DSLRs, may be seen as being more akin to main frames ...
05-13-2018, 08:51 AM - 1 Like   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
There's no reason those sensors can't be used on non-mirrorless cameras.
They can be, but the speed is wasted on a camera that has a mirror and uses a separate PDAF sensor. In order to shoot at 20fps with a DSLR the mirror is basically locked up and the OVF is blacked out. With the OVF, what you see is NOT what you are taking pictures of. In order for you to see it, the mirror has to be down and thus preventing the sensor from capturing the image. A 32MP 8K camera capable of 30fps should be here by 2020.

So yes the new technology could be put into a DSLR, but a DSLR would not be capable of using the technology so it would be a huge waste of money.

05-13-2018, 09:00 AM   #8
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As bold a statement as the histogram showed.
Is fuji now playing in the raptor edge funds category ?
05-13-2018, 09:22 AM - 3 Likes   #9
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The mirrorless propaganda using FUD as its main weapon. Tell me something new.
05-13-2018, 09:32 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Fuji Predicts Canon & Nikon Will Loose 50% of Their Current Market Share
Are you trying to get some peer confirmation that you made the right purchase decision of the Sony A9?
05-13-2018, 09:48 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Are you trying to get some peer confirmation that you made the right purchase decision of the Sony A9?
Having just shot a wedding with a K-1 I'm fully on board with Winder's decision to buy an A9.
05-13-2018, 09:50 AM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Are you trying to get some peer confirmation that you made the right purchase decision of the Sony A9?
Not sure why that would be. Fuji's comments may or may not come true and Sony is going to keep doing what they are doing regardless. I'm just posting it for people to read.
05-13-2018, 09:50 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
So yes the new technology could be put into a DSLR, but a DSLR would not be capable of using the technology so it would be a huge waste of money.
Because a camera with a mirror can't lock it up and do things? Seems like that's what the Pentax execs said. They are kind of aiming for a camera that uses the mirror when you want it and is mirrorless when you want it. After all, Live View is essentially mirrorless.

This is not an unsolvable technical problem.

---------- Post added 05-13-18 at 12:57 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by BarryE Quote
But maybe they are taking this space quite rapidly which will cause Canikon to panic and make bad choices...?

From the inside, I'd say that IBM got it wrong with Apple as they perhaps did not see that low function, proprietary, products with ridiculously high prices, would catch on, albeit styled nicely. Highly tuned to the consumer market was never IBM's focus, whereas Apple made some clever, consumer calls. Maybe, Fuji are seeing that light, styled, good enough quality cameras is where the market is moving after consumers step-up from camera phones. High function and capable is not what most fickle, convenience buyers want. Canon and Nikon DSLRs, may be seen as being more akin to main frames ...
Ya, I tend to stay away from speculation as much as possible.

What might also be is Fuji might be trying to get into the headlines and keep their name in the media when nothing else is really happening. As with the whole "organic sensors thing" it's vapourware until it's out the door. Just like Fuji's announcement is vapourware until it happens.

Seems to me at one time IBM actually bought a huge block of Apple shares. There's a difference between framing thins as they didn't want to do it and admitting they couldn't do it. It the same facts twisted to your perspective.
05-13-2018, 10:13 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Having just shot a wedding with a K-1 I'm fully on board with Winder's decision to buy an A9.
When I first got your message about shooting a wedding with a K-1 I thought you were just trolling me.

You should write a post about your experience with the K-1 as a wedding camera. The K-1 is probably the best architecture/landscape camera you can buy short of medium format, but it struggles when photographing events. You can do it. You can plan ahead and try to compensate for they known weaknesses, but its definitely harder to use a K-1 for wedding work than it is for several other cameras. Ricoh just needs to improve the AF and the buffer and they have an excellent wedding camera.

---------- Post added 05-13-18 at 12:17 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Because a camera with a mirror can't lock it up and do things? Seems like that's what the Pentax execs said. They are kind of aiming for a camera that uses the mirror when you want it and is mirrorless when you want it. After all, Live View is essentially mirrorless.
This is not an unsolvable technical problem.
I think the mirror just goes away. Replace the OVF with an EVF (I don't miss it) and make it a mirrorless body with the traditional K-mount. Its cheaper to delete the OVF and mirror, and it eliminates one more mechanical component to fail. Remove the shutter too. The only time I shoot with the mechanical shutter is when I have my strobes setup. The silent electronic shutter is awesome to use.
05-13-2018, 10:17 AM   #15
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kunzite Quote
The mirrorless propaganda using FUD as its main weapon. Tell me something new.
Exactly. Even alot of big name photographers are saying "If CaNikon doesnt go mirrorless they'll be dead by next year!!!!!!" which is 100% B.S.
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