[rawr]

right now there is no reason to think they won't adopt this new thing

Depends on what Nikon offers as it's first few Z-mount lenses. If the initial offering is a few expensive fast primes, don't expect even Nikon users to rush to buy.

The difference with Canon's EF-M is that the Nikon is full-frame and expensive, not APS-C and mass-market like Canon.

Nikon could have tried it the Sony way - start with APS-C offerings, build up from that. Instead, they've decided to jump right into the high-end of the mirrorless market. A riskier
path.

[reh321]

Depends on what Nikon offers as it's first few Z-mount lenses. If the initial offering is a few expensive fast primes, don't expect even Nikon users to rush to buy.

The difference with Canon's EF-M is that the Nikon is full-frame and expensive, not APS-C and mass-market like Canon.

Nikon could have tried it the Sony way - start with APS-C offerings, build up from that. Instead, they've decided to jump right into the high-end of the mirrorless market. A riskier
path.

What I am expecting is for them to start as Pentax did with the DFA lenses - a basic "everyday" zoom lens in the 28-105 range and a basic telephoto zoom lens in the 70-300mm range. The adapter will make other lenses available, although some will have to be manual focus. At another discussion site where I frequent, I'm hearing excited voices from the usual Nikon fans, so they may make this work, just as the K-1 worked.

[Pentikonian]

From what I've seen, the rumors of an initial 3-lens offering have been pretty consistent for a while now - 24-70/4, 50/1.8, and an f/1.8 wide prime (24, 28 or 35). Other lenses to follow. I'd be surprised if this is completely wrong or way off. IMHO Nikon really needs a few basic lenses out the door with this, especially if they cannot provide the adapter on release of the cameras.

[reh321]

IMHO Nikon really needs a few basic lenses out the door with this, especially if they cannot provide the adapter on release of the cameras.

Considering who / what Nikon is, I'd be extremely surprised if they don't have an adapter available when they announce the bodies. What they should do is bundle the adapter with bodies, just as Canon did with the EOS-M.

[Rondec]

Considering who / what Nikon is, I'd be extremely surprised if they don't have an adapter available when they announce the bodies. What they should do is bundle the adapter with bodies, just as Canon did with the EOS-M.

Of course they'll have an adapter available. But most of the time adapters aren't cheap and my guess is it won't be cheap -- probably 150 to 200. I doubt they'll include it with the bodies. But an adapter is just a stop gap measure for people who already own some Nikon lenses and are interested in this camera. Most people (who don't have an existing Nikon lens stable) will want native lenses -- they will tend to have better performance than using a lens with an adapter and they will probably be smaller, particularly on the wide angle side of things.

The whole question is whether (and how quickly) Nikon can leverage their new mount for different glass. if all you are doing is mounting existing F mount lenses on it, with an adapter, you might just as well get a Sony camera or, a D810 for that matter.

[reh321]

if all you are doing is mounting existing F mount lenses on it, with an adapter, you might just as well get a Sony camera or, a D810 for that matter.

Obviously I cannot speak for Nikon, but I am guessing their initial audience is current Nikon users who are thinking of going MILC - much as Pentax might view me if I were younger, or as Canon would have viewed me four years ago. Quite honestly, I would not have come back to Pentax three years if the EOS-M5 had been available four years ago {or if the EOS-M had an EVF}, because I would have viewed it as being superior to both the Rebel I had and the K-30/50 I was looking at. However, with only the Rebel to compete against, the K-30 was a relatively easy choice to make {Sony A6000 was my second choice}.

So, the target audience are people who already have Nikon lenses that do what they want; Z-mount lenses would be better, but these lenses will do. For these people, the new cameras will be superior to both of the options you suggested:

compared to Sony anything - these are Nikon cameras, and Nikon users are just as committed to Nikon as Pentax users are to Pentax {but Nikon users don't whine as much}

compared to D810 - these are users postulated to be leaning towards MILC, which the D810 isn't

[Pentikonian]

We know an f-mount adapter is coming, one "that will enable the use of a wide variety of f-mount lenses" - Nikon's own press release stated as such. Supposed to be very high quality, and if it is like the patent, probably a bit complicated. Hopefully any and all bugs have been worked out and they can have it available same time as the bodies. As for bundling, I can see them doing a slight cost discount bundle for early adopters. May tempt those who need the adapter to buy-in early to save some money.

[ffking]

Yuh - the price suggested for the adaptor by Rondec is no more than a battery grip, and they're often bundled with the camera

[Rondec]

Yuh - the price suggested for the adaptor by Rondec is no more than a battery grip, and they're often bundled with the camera

Not at this price point and certainly not for no charge. If you look at the D750, it is 1700 dollars with body alone. The cheapest with grip bundle is 2100 dollars (these are Amazon prices). The grip alone costs 336 dollars. Nikon may have an F mount to Z mount adapter bundle with each of these cameras, but it certainly won't be free.

I guess I see this as being an odd sort of camera. The whole point of mirrorless to me has been small size and these camera bodies (particularly once you include the adapter and f mount lenses) will not be that.

[surfar]

The whole point of mirrorless to me has been small size

Well M/L started smallish a bit over 10 years ago but as they developed the sizes have varied.Manufacturers who listen to customers have provided what they've asked for(Fuji/Panasonic).There are still plenty of small M/L bodies but the lens mount for different sensor sizes kinda dictates body size generally.

From Q or GM1 size to GFX size is a fair range and lots of choice in features,so the buyer can decide what suits their needs.

I guess I see this as being an odd sort of camera.

Being FF it never was going to be small.$$$ony have done FF with what was initially an Apsc mount.The Z6/7 will help Nikon retain market share and if its good enough it will bring in new customers.

$$$$ony will counter CaNik not too far down the track,they have prepared for war and probably know(with sensor sales to Nikon) what to expect.

[reh321]

The whole point of mirrorless to me has been small size and these camera bodies (particularly once you include the adapter and f mount lenses) will not be that.

How large are the A9 and A7 cameras??

The main advantages of MILC are

(1) user sees what the sensor sees - after gain is applied and with lens at chosen aperture

(2) they have been able to attain "insane" burst rates

(3) focusing doesn't need to be adjust for "front" or "back"

(4) mechanically simpler

(5) seem to handle video better

[surfar]

So, the target audience are people who already have Nikon lenses

With the decline of Dslr sales over the last 5/6 years and the rise of M/L,both CaNik had to bring in FF m/l to retain customers.

It wont be long and we will see their offerings.Competition fuels progress and probably will lower prices on $$$ony bodies and glass.

A Specs war and Price war....YES!

[rawr]

slight cost discount

I don't believe Nikon knows how to do 'discount', particularly for full-frame and accessories. Look at their bodies, lenses, teleconverters, battery grips, flashes etc. Often their gear makes Canon and Sony look cheap.

In their favour they do have good third-party support (Sigma, YongNuo, Tamron etc etc) to help with keeping Nikon affordable, but that support will be lacking for a long time with the Z system. So IMHO full-frame Z system will be premium priced, and with no freebies like lens adapters thrown into the box from Nikon at launch.

[surfar]

I don't believe Nikon knows how to do 'discount'

Yes, they could come in high and rely on "brand Loyalty"...but I wouldnt be surprised to see $$$ony reduce prices as a defensive effort.They have a stategy and it can only mean price or quality.

If Nikon come in with a good adapter,menu,reasonable weather sealing and ergonomics they should get off to a flyer.

The short supply of the D850 is understandable now that the top end Z will have the 45mp sensor.

[rawr]

The main advantages of MILC are

And the main advantage, from a manufacturer's perspective, is that it is cheaper to make mirrorless due to simpler assembly and fewer parts. Hence potentially higher profits and more competitive pricing.

I am not a mirrorless hater, by any means, but I think a lot of the marketing of mirrorless to consumers is driven by this corporate necessity to find ways to simplify manufacturing and keep costs down. Perhaps more than particular features of mirrorless speaking directly to most camera consumers. Supply-side push at work as much as demand-side pull, as it were.