Originally posted by RobA_Oz I suspect it will rise at first, but if it doesn’t there’s going to be some blood in the water
I suspect there's going to be anyway. From what I've been seeing, the Z6 and Z7 have some glaring omissions (in some potential users' minds) that can't easily be rectified without a redesign (no provision for a vertical grip, only one card slot, no support for Nikon screwdrive F mount AF) and other issues), and which smack of Nikon trying to reinvent the wheel rather than looking at what was criticised in other makers' models and addressing that in the basic design. If Panasonic and (separately) Canon can avoid those mistakes, they're going to cut the legs out from under any follow-up Nikon design that redresses the current perceived failures. It's not going to be pretty, and it could spell the end for Nikon as one of the Majors.
If Nikon manages to pick itself up and dust itself off, and transitions completely to mirrorless and the Z mount, that will leave Pentax as the only remaining manufacturer that still offers significant legacy support for its film-era glass in its own name.
Panasonic's advantage is that it has a solid background in mirrorless. However, that's in M4/3, and the degree to which this translates over into full-frame while entering a crowded market is going to be interesting to watch. I've seen some of the Lumix cameras at a distance; they looked as big as my K-5 for a smaller sensor. If they don't keep a careful eye on it, they're going to end up with a grossly oversized camera for the job it's meant to do.