Originally posted by biz-engineer Interesting opinion that let me thinking. Actually, the way I see it is each company see the market shrinking and having to pay their bills, their approach is to offer a broad range of product and be pragmatic with regard to what product they will discontinue or not. Sigma and Tamron continue to release lenses for DSLR mounts and they'll also make new lenses for MILC mounts. In fact there is a lot of reuse of parts and IP between DSLR and MILC, and so the goal is to grab money from every source. IMO we will not see an all MILC approach with abandon of DSLR, the proportion of investments and new products will depend on adoption. Businesses are very pragmatic, they don't drop products/technologies as long as there is money to be made out of it. Film to digital was very different in a way that the digital workflow was revolutionary making it very easy to take pictures to everyone, and there was a lot of growth. Currently there is no such revolution with mirrorless, as you say, it's basically a minor change in the user interface, it's not really pulling the masses, and MILC has been around for a very long time with small sensors, it just that EVF implementation moved up to apscu43 and then full frame and MF. MILC is a way to extend the market life cycle of the digital camera market by giving a reason to people to buy something new as opposed to keeping their DSLR until it breaks.
Thru my meeting with people who are shooting (using various brands), I am actually surprised that a fair number of people I meet are using their existing equipment.
These may be older D700, 5DIII, 5DII, D610, etc.
The MILC users are a mix of those who bought one because they are recent entrants to the hobby and those who chase the latest stuff.
Even for these, they are keeping to their 2-3yr old camera and not really buying the latest camera for their brand.
This is a marked difference to the early years with digital where I observed that more people were upgrading on a yearly, 2yr basis.
Even for myself, I have a K1 and A7, and I am at the point where I'd only buy a new camera if one of them breaks down.
There will still be money to be made for the top 2 MILC makers and there will certainly be growth as people new to the hobby will simply buy them as they are what's available.
All within a diminished market that can't be compared to the DSLR boom years.