[Digitalis]

Canon thinks the camera market will drop by another 50% over the next two years

And that is with some generous rounding IMO. At work most of my colleagues have stuck with the cameras they have had for the past 3~4 years - and they all have a multitude of reasons, most of which are based upon their familiarity with the model of camera they are working with.


When consistency and quality are paramount changing systems every year is not a particularly sensible (or fiscally responsible) idea.

[rawr]

All Im saying - every company can get real market numbers and they can present those numbers to their board of investors.

True. But the Canon CEO made his spiel to the high-level Tokyo business media for a reason. He wasn't talking to some Youtuber or Instagrammer, or the camera geeks at DC Watch or DP Review.

[Trickortreat]

And that is with some generous rounding IMO. At work most of my colleagues have stuck with the cameras they have had for the past 3~4 years - and they all have a multitude of reasons, most of which are based upon their familiarity with the model of camera they are working with.When consistency and quality are paramount changing systems every year is not a particularly sensible (or fiscally responsible) idea.

Exactly - even *ist D takes good enough photos for most of the users. PENTAX *istD | Flickr

Mostly news agencies really need new cameras, but they rent gear, so those volumes arent high.

[Trickortreat]

True. But the Canon CEO made his spiel to the high-level Tokyo business media for a reason. He wasn't talking to some Youtuber or Instagrammer, or the camera geeks at DC Watch or DP Review.

Hmmmm... all is possible - but what I think it is happening is Cannon is letting know THEIR investors they are going after profitable, high growth markets and leaving shrinking markets behind.

[Rondec]

It's just a maturing market. Maybe Canon and Nikon can get some traction from their release of mirrorless cameras and new lenses to accompany those new mounts, but overall, people are just making their cameras last longer. If you bought a D850, you won't need a new camera for four to five years unless you drop yours in the Atlantic Ocean or some such mishap. Tough to sell new gear to satisfied customers.

[ffking]

It's just a maturing market. Maybe Canon and Nikon can get some traction from their release of mirrorless cameras and new lenses to accompany those new mounts, but overall, people are just making their cameras last longer. If you bought a D850, you won't need a new camera for four to five years unless you drop yours in the Atlantic Ocean or some such mishap. Tough to sell new gear to satisfied customers.

Quite so - the outlier was the sales in DSLRs in the early changeover from film and rapid improvement phase - that's over - back to normality, or a new normality at least - or the normality of the late days of the SLR, at least - earlier models with less automation survived a decade or more of regular use.

[TaoMaas]

I believe Canon even though their guess of how much the market may drop seems a bit extreme. It looks to me like two things have happened. As someone said, the cameras in smartphones are getting better and better, replacing the need for entry-level cameras. And as was also pointed out, users are less inclined to upgrade these days because the megapixel race has been over for a while now. I think the move towards mirrorless cameras is largely an attempt to add video users to the market base because that seems to be where the fight is. All of this is why I think Pentax will keep doing what they've been doing. They're going to remain relatively small and concentrate on being the best bang-for-the-buck still photography camera available. It's a lot like Leica used to be...only cheaper. lol

[mecrox]

I'm glad someone who carries some respect and authority spelled it out. Whatever the exact figure turns out to be, the message is pretty clear: camera sales will continue to decline and companies that can will diversity their portfolio of activities away from a shrinking sector. That means fewer, more expensive cameras and less funding into R&D. Crap news really but that's how it is. Stockholders will be relieved, though. This also makes me think folks like the Canon CEO have seen what the mobile folks have coming down the pike in the next few years and don't like the look of it one bit. I'm guessing it is some quite serious computational photography using multiple cameras and a long-awaited but this time effective method of achieving zoom/telephoto range on a smartphone. We will all soon see. In the meantime, this won't effect our pleasure in photography one iota, or I hope not.

[aurele]

Canon thinks the camera market will drop by another 50% over the next two years

it's pretty much back to what was the market just before digital era.

At work most of my colleagues have stuck with the cameras they have had for the past 3~4 years

Same here, people keep their Canon 5D series as long as they last. It's workhorse. Eye AF isn't an absolute necessity, and most of the peers know their camera enought to never think of needing it.

When consistency and quality are paramount changing systems every year is not a particularly sensible (or fiscally responsible) idea.

Sums up perfectly the why people don't buy new camera.

[normhead]

That means fewer, more expensive cameras and less funding into R&D. Crap news really but that's how it is.

It's not crap news in my opinion. It's market adjustment based on the fact that recent releases have been a lot of hype and not much progress. It's time for people to learn what they have and stop looking for the latest greatest newest thing all the time. At some point that becomes counter productive, and it has been for years.

Every call for new gear starts with "I can't get it done with what I have now."
I'm sure the "I can't get it done"part is the most important part of the equation, and the reasons for that are always debatable.
Every camera company has carved out a niche, and there are excellent cameras from every company. It doesn't matter who you are, you can find what you need somewhere. It would never have been efficient to have every company do everything. Compnies do what they do best, there's lots of choice, if development slows down that won't changed. There are times to look to the future and their are times to sit back and admire what you've accomplished. clearly according to Canon, this is not a time to be looking to expand. SO do the smart thing. Improve your skills, stop allowing yourself to be lured by new gear.

[biz-engineer]

Why this might be realistic that the market is shrunk and will stabilize at a point, this announcement from Canon is a business tactic , same as when Sony announced last year and the year before that Canon and Nikon are invited to join mirrorless and that Sony will grow the camera market. Canon saying the camera market will shrink 50% by 2020 is the response of Canon to Sony saying they will grow the market. The underlying message of Canon is "you better buy my EOS R and RF lenses because if you invest in Sony FE mount you'll be screwed up because only the biggest camera maker can survive the 50% shrink of the market."

---------- Post added 29-01-19 at 18:26 ----------

It's not crap news in my opinion. It's market adjustment based on the fact that recent releases have been a lot of hype and not much progress.

my take: Canon realize that the EOS R isn't growing as much as they thought it would. I can confirm this: I've seen a number of people still using their DSLR or phone, but I haven't seen any EOS R yet.

[clackers]

my take: Canon realize that the EOS R isn't growing as much as they thought it would.

Perhaps we have to give Canon owners credit - they're less vulnerable to hype than might be thought. They recognize the novelty isn't worth paying more than a DSLR for a product weaker than a DSLR.

[Trickortreat]

The underlying message of Canon is "you better buy my EOS R and RF lenses because if you invest in Sony FE mount you'll be screwed up because only the biggest camera maker can survive the 50% shrink of the market."

Do people who buy cameras even read those reports? People who are buying a new camera compare specs. I have never heard of someone buying new gear based on some media report :/

[biz-engineer]

Do people who buy cameras even read those reports? People who are buying a new camera compare specs. I have never heard of someone buying new gear based on some media report :/

Lots of people don't even compare specs. Only a certain customers want to have the latest models, the majority of camera users keep using what they have for five years or more.

[Trickortreat]

Lots of people don't even compare specs. Only a certain customers want to have the latest models, the majority of camera users keep using what they have for five years or more.

True...