[interested_observer]

Canon thinks the camera market will drop by another 50% over the next two years

• Canon thinks the camera market will drop by another 50% over the next two years | Canon Rumors

[dbs]

Obviously they are under-performing to make such a statement....and if its wrong..see how good we are
( And no I have not read the article and not really interested )


Dave

[bobmaxja]

I read the article , and I agree with what Canon is saying. NO dbs , Canon is not underperforming

[rawr]

Clever 'strategic communications' by Canon to discourage competitors, particularly those likely to introduce new products or technologies into the market.

[JPT]

This may be accurate or exaggerated or whatever, but I have to wonder what Canon’s objective is in making such a dramatic statement now. Normally they would want to give a more stable impression of their business.

My guess is that they are going to cut some lines or close a factory or something like that, and they are setting out their rationale for doing so in advance.

When you look at Canon’s lineup, they seem to have way too many overlapping products. It’s getting even worse with the new mirrorless mounts. My guess is that the DSLR line will be cut drastically as they try to push everyone towards R and M mirrorless models. Honestly, they could cut half the APS-C DSLR models and nobody would notice, let alone care.

[RGlasel]

This: "Canon thinks that the camera market will shrink another 50% over the next 2 years" doesn't quite mesh with "The global market for interchangeable lens cameras is about 10 million units a year" and "Canon thinks they’ll continue to sell 5-6 million prosumer and professional cameras once we’ve reached the bottom of the decline." Global production of ILC's in 2017 according to CIPA was 11.7 million cameras, January to November 2018 is a little under 10.3 million (so finish the year close to 11 million?), for Canon to sell 5-6 million units in a market that they are forecasting to only be 5 million in total is questionable arithmetic. What does seem reasonable to me is "Mirrorless camera sales are not adding to the market, they’re merely replacing DSLR sales."

Apparently, "Canon’s camera sales have declined 10% a year over the last few years," which, assuming this stat is also only for ILC's, means that Canon is maintaining its market share, or at least not changing in a significant way. MILC sales have been more or less flat in terms of units over the same time frame, which suggests that while Sony hasn't had the same declines as DSLR manufacturers, its unit sales haven't been growing significantly, either.

To state that an already deflated market will lose half of its remaining customers in the next 24 months is the one thing that really doesn't add up. ILC sales peaked in 2012 at 20.16 million units and dropped 15% in 2013, 19% in 2014, then started to stabilize a bit with a 5.7% drop in 2015, 11% in 2016 and grew by less than 1% in 2017. 2018 will probably see another 5-6% drop; undoubtedly without this year's big new product launches, 2019 will be brutal, but to have a cumulative drop of 50% in two years means 30% drops each year. That ain't gonna happen. Either Canon is feeding misleading information to the public or something got lost in translation.

[lesmore49]

Will be interesting to tune in around January 2021 and see if Canon is right on the money...or...?

[derekkite]

Are they describing an economic slowdown in China?

[Trickortreat]

Clever 'strategic communications' by Canon to discourage competitors, particularly those likely to introduce new products or technologies into the market.

Canon numbers correlate with CIPA numbers, and anyway - competitors have their R&D sectors and can get the figures themselves. Thinking a statement can influence competition is a bit naive. We arent talking about some $1000 garage companies here.

---------- Post added 01-29-19 at 08:23 AM ----------

My guess is that they are going to cut some lines or close a factory or something like that, and they are setting out their rationale for doing so in advance.When you look at Canon’s lineup, they seem to have way too many overlapping products. It’s getting even worse with the new mirrorless mounts. My guess is that the DSLR line will be cut drastically as they try to push everyone towards R and M mirrorless models. Honestly, they could cut half the APS-C DSLR models and nobody would notice, let alone care.

Exactly, their lineup is a bit puzzling to say at least

---------- Post added 01-29-19 at 08:32 AM ----------

for Canon to sell 5-6 million units in a market that they are forecasting to only be 5 million in total is questionable arithmetic.

Maybe they'll find a way to sell more cameras than market needs
but anywho - there is no denying that market is shrinking fast and it will continue to do so. Smartphone cams are getting better and better, and computational photography helps em a lot compared to standard cameras.
If current manufacturers don't get some of the computational tech into their gear - it bodes ill for them.

---------- Post added 01-29-19 at 08:34 AM ----------

Are they describing an economic slowdown in China?

Not only in China, seems all markets will be hit, so that is one of contributing factors - mostly only people who need new gear will buy new gear...

[RonHendriks1966]

The market keeps declining over the past years and no signs that is changing for now.

[surfar]

The amount of decline is relative to the progress of smartphone cameras.

10x opticalzoom is coming(although Samsung has done that),just cant remember who is doing it this time round.

Back awhile,Samsung read the market and put their Camera divisions over into the phn divisions(after the"ditch the Dslr"campaign didnt succeed)

[Trickortreat]

10x opticalzoom is coming(although Samsung has done that),just cant remember who is doing it this time round.Back awhile,Samsung read the market and put their Camera divisions over into the phn divisions(after the"ditch the Dslr"campaign didnt succeed)

OPPO and Huawei.
Smasung also stated they are aiming at overthrowing Sony at #1 place in image sensor manufacturers. And it is highly unlikely they will re-enter camera sensor business...

[rawr]

Thinking a statement can influence competition is a bit naive

I dunno. In my experience, company CEO's [and investors] can be very vulnerable to media statements like the Canon CEO's, even if seasoned company product planners further down the organization chart may not be. So the impact of the Canon CEO's high-level signalling on the market shouldn't be discounted.

[surfar]

it is highly unlikely they will re-enter camera sensor business...

Yes,which is a shame..they did reasonably good stuff.

OPPO and Huawei.

I saw a photo of the 10x lens,it was recessed into the phn body in a strange way.

[Trickortreat]

I saw a photo of the 10x lens,it was recessed into the phn body in a strange way.

Yeh, a "periscope configuration"

---------- Post added 01-29-19 at 09:40 AM ----------

I dunno. In my experience, company CEO's [and investors] can be very vulnerable to media statements like the Canon CEO's, even if seasoned company product planners further down the organization chart may not be. So the impact of the Canon CEO's high-level signalling on the market shouldn't be discounted.

All Im saying - every company can get real market numbers and they can present those numbers to their board of investors.