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06-03-2019, 08:36 AM   #31
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QuoteOriginally posted by Gray Quote
...APS-C sits at the sweet spot between M43 and full frame...
I was going to comment about m43 before I read your post. I'll speculate that either APS-C or m43 will fade away because the camera market isn't large enough to support so many formats. Tiny phone sensors and computational photography will continue to eat away at dedicated cameras.

I think APS-C is more likely to survive because it has better image quality than m43. The smaller m43 format theoretically allows smaller and less expensive cameras, but the cameras being brought to market don't seem to leverage that advantage.

06-03-2019, 08:53 AM   #32
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
I guess that's possible, but somewhat odd from a company that spent most of the last 15 years selling customers on maximum bang for the buck. I'm a Pentaxian because the K-30 had more features than any other brand's $800 camera. Not because I eventually was going to want a five-figure system with a red dot.

If boutique means $1000-ish APS-C DLSRs with unique and interesting features, I'm in. If it means expensive, large FF systems I'll probably, eventually go elsewhere.

---------- Post added 06-03-19 at 09:51 AM ----------



The median income of ILC buyers has probably always been higher than the general population. Maybe a lot higher. That's one of several reasons photography skews old - older people often have more disposable income after they've gotten kids through college and houses paid off.

But now camera manufacturers are aiming even higher. Instead of shooting for the 75th percentile of income, they're going for 90th (numbers made up to illustrate the point). I don't know if there are enough 90th-percentile earners who like photography to make this work with all the existing manufacturers.
Look where being the "maximum bang for the buck" guys got Pentax. They went from being a company to a brand name of Hoya and now Ricoh.
Your "going elsewhere" will likely mean the cell phone company of your choice. The entire industry is going to be moving in that direction as their budget stuff gets picked off by Apple, Samsung, Huawei, etc.
As sales volumes drop, prices will have to go up.
06-03-2019, 09:49 AM   #33
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Look where being the "maximum bang for the buck" guys got Pentax. They went from being a company to a brand name of Hoya and now Ricoh.
Your "going elsewhere" will likely mean the cell phone company of your choice. The entire industry is going to be moving in that direction as their budget stuff gets picked off by Apple, Samsung, Huawei, etc.
As sales volumes drop, prices will have to go up.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I think there's a market for cameras in between "just using my cell phone" and $2500 for a body and a lens. Today companies sell literally millions of ILCs a year at the $500-1500 price range. Some of us who've bought them are under 50, we'll have some interest in new cameras we can afford that aren't phones with 1/2.3" sensors for decades. Someone will keep making affordable ILCs.

It's like the compact camera market, which is extinct, right? Cellphones eviscerated them. Except that you can still buy compact, fixed-lens Fujis and Ricoh GRIIIs and Canons and others. The compact, fixed-lens market sold something like 6-8 million units in 2018. We're not going to wake up in 2025 and find that nobody makes an ILC for under $3000.
06-03-2019, 10:10 AM   #34
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QuoteOriginally posted by Wheatfield Quote
Your "going elsewhere" will likely mean the cell phone company of your choice
... or buying in the secondary market.

If and when the K-3II replacement is released, the pricing will give me a decent indication of whether I'm (a) likely to buy it at some point in the next couple of years, or (b) buying used, older gear from now on. I just don't have the appetite to pay $1,500+ for any camera going forward, unless I win the lottery. I could afford to, but I wouldn't be comfortable with it. I suspect I'm not unusual in that respect.

06-03-2019, 11:08 AM   #35
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It's funny that people still expect a new camera models every other year, when the technology is good enough and technological improvements have slowed. Between 6Mp and 14Mp , the upgrade was appreciated because 6Mp isn't much. Between 14Mp and 16Mp the improvement wasn't much except that from CCD to CMOS was 1 stop improvement in noise and dynamic range, and between 16Mp and 24Mp the improvement at above 800 ISO isn't visible, and between 24Mp and 28Mp the difference is practically invisible. Same for frame rates: from 5 FPS to 8 FPS is practically a huge improvement, from 8 to 10 it is less useful and beyond 10 FPS it is pure luxury. All the 20 FPS of Sony A9 is that you have to delete at least 50% of the redundant frames, it isn't any more useful than 10 FPS. Claiming 20 FPS is good to show off in the marketing demo, but that's about it.
06-03-2019, 11:23 AM   #36
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I see m43 going away before APS-C as m43 seems too close to cell phones at this point. I'm curious what the road ahead for Olympus's camera section is. Probably not great.
06-03-2019, 11:27 AM   #37
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QuoteOriginally posted by pres589 Quote
as m43 seems too close to cell phones at this point.
The only problem with phones is the availability of tele / supertele lenses with PDAF. I still see a lot of wildlife photographers satisfied with a 7D mounted on an old non-IS 500mm f4. All the new things from the last 5 years doesn't necessarily make a difference.

06-03-2019, 11:35 AM   #38
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
It's funny that people still expect a new camera models every other year, when the technology is good enough and technological improvements have slowed. Between 6Mp and 14Mp , the upgrade was appreciated because 6Mp isn't much. Between 14Mp and 16Mp the improvement wasn't much except that from CCD to CMOS was 1 stop improvement in noise and dynamic range, and between 16Mp and 24Mp the improvement at above 800 ISO isn't visible, and between 24Mp and 28Mp the difference is practically invisible. Same for frame rates: from 5 FPS to 8 FPS is practically a huge improvement, from 8 to 10 it is less useful and beyond 10 FPS it is pure luxury. All the 20 FPS of Sony A9 is that you have to delete at least 50% of the redundant frames, it isn't any more useful than 10 FPS. Claiming 20 FPS is good to show off in the marketing demo, but that's about it.
Every other year? Not necessarily. However, I think the five years or so between the K-3ii and its follow-on is probably excessive, even for Pentax. Especially since it was a modest upgrade from the the original K-3, which was announced in October of 2013. The K-3 line's successor will be about seven years out from that.

You don't have to be some stereotypical ADD-addled millennial to think seven years waiting for a major upgrade is pretty long.
06-03-2019, 11:40 AM   #39
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Every other year? Not necessarily. However, I think the five years or so between the K-3ii and its follow-on is probably excessive, even for Pentax. Especially since it was a modest upgrade from the the original K-3, which was announced in October of 2013. The K-3 line's successor will be about seven years out from that.

You don't have to be some stereotypical ADD-addled millennial to think seven years waiting for a major upgrade is pretty long.
Except for the part where I'm still pretty happy with my K-3, didn't even get the K-3ii. I can still upgrade if i want to and I haven't.
I think perhaps Pentax doesn't offer something, until there's something new to offer.
We saw that when the K-1 got pushed back because a new quality sensor became available 645 system. Going form the645D to the 645z was a pretty big upgrade. So, I'm guessing, no similar upgrade for APS-c has taken place in that time.

No sense in doing an upgrade without a shining new technology to implement.
06-03-2019, 11:42 AM - 2 Likes   #40
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
The only problem with phones is the availability of tele / supertele lenses with PDAF.
True, except for the other 100 problems a phone has compared to even an entry-level APS-C camera.

---------- Post added 06-03-19 at 02:48 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
Except for the part where I'm still pretty happy with my K-3, didn't even get the K-3ii. I can still upgrade if i want to and I haven't.
I think perhaps Pentax doesn't offer something, until there's something new to offer.
We saw that when the K-1 got pushed back because a new quality sensor became available 645 system. Going form the645D to the 645z was a pretty big upgrade. So, I'm guessing, no similar upgrade for APS-c has taken place in that time.

No sense in doing an upgrade without a shining new technology to implement.
I love my K-3ii. But I do sometimes wish that it had the low-light performance of the KP, and better tracking autofocus. For now I take as many shots of kids playing soccer as anything, and I miss focus more than I'd like*, and winter indoor soccer with bad lighting pushes ISO to 10,000+. The K-3ii with the 55-300 PLM isn't stopping me from getting many good shots, but the keeper rate could always be better.

* sure, blame some of that on me.
06-03-2019, 11:49 AM   #41
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I don't know why a "phone shooter" would stop at m43 at this point when APS-C is right there for not much greater physical size and weight as far as camera bodies are concerned.
06-03-2019, 12:23 PM   #42
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Every other year? Not necessarily. However, I think the five years or so between the K-3ii and its follow-on is probably excessive, even for Pentax. Especially since it was a modest upgrade from the the original K-3, which was announced in October of 2013. The K-3 line's successor will be about seven years out from that.
It's quite a long time, I agree... and yet, I suspect my own cycle of updating or upgrading will settle in to something like every five or six years... possibly longer, since with my K-3 and K-3II I don't feel like I'm missing out on much except for slightly better high ISO performance and marginally better AF, which - given my wide-ranging but rather general use cases - aren't critical. I wonder how many folks any manufacturer can rely on going forward to update or upgrade their camera, say, every three years? My guess is, not that many...
06-03-2019, 12:41 PM - 1 Like   #43
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^ I'm on the same boat. I typically don't upgrade for a long while. I had a Sony a200 that I got in late 2008 that I ran until early 2015. That was almost 7 years of service. I was going to replace it with a newer Sony camera, but I wasn't too thrilled with their DSLT design. The Pentax K-50 was one of the few cameras that was very similar to my old Sony a200. I got the K-50 in early 2015. It was better in a lot of respects, but as far as AF went, it was a very small step forward when comparing it to my old a200.

I've been shooting the K-50 for that past 4 years & it has been fairly great, except for that solenoid failure that I had to fix on my own, but I have been wanting a newer Pentax with much better AF performance, hence me waiting for the upcoming APS-C flagship. I do think APS-C cameras are still going to be here for a long while & I'm willing to wait for that camera. I'm going to guess that they're probably putting way more effort into that camera than any other effort previously put in past generation cameras like the K-7 to K-5 to K-3. Hopefully we'll get to see how much effort has been put into it sometime next year.
06-03-2019, 01:10 PM   #44
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
But I do sometimes wish that it had the low-light performance of the KP, and better tracking autofocus.
The KP isn't better than the K3 for AF, it's the same. People have said KP AF is better than K30, K50 etc. Someone else bought a KP for wildlife but complained about the loss of detail, sold the KP and purchased the K3II instead.

---------- Post added 03-06-19 at 22:13 ----------

The downside of not releasing camera models often is that the group of camera users who are rather enjoying gear don't have anything to play with. On the other hand, anyone interested in photographs more than collecting gear hardware will not be bothered by the lack of new camera models. Pentaxforum is mostly gear / troubleshooting oriented, so that's normal that activity decreases when there is no new camera or no new lens. But there are other sites that deal exclusively on photography excluding equipment, so that when there is no new camera/lens they don't have a slow down of activity.

---------- Post added 03-06-19 at 22:48 ----------

Even now, given how little popularity the excellent DFA*70-200 gets and excellent DFA*50, I wonder how quiet it would be if Ricoh was releasing a new camera now with outstanding specs. I feel like even if a few guys are excited by new tech, the vast majority of people won't care in general what excellent Pentax product Ricoh can release in the future. That's why Ricoh turned to Tokina for generating income from the DFA*50 design. How much activity is around the GRIII...it's new right? not much activity, people don't care like spoiled kids behave, just take everything for granted.

Last edited by biz-engineer; 06-03-2019 at 01:53 PM.
06-03-2019, 02:10 PM   #45
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How do you gauge "attention" and "popularity" beyond unit sales and revenue figures? I do admit that it seems like the DFA*50 has not generated the volume of reviews and such that it should have based on actual merits of the optic. GRIII seems to be doing better on this very hard to quantify front.
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