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06-04-2019, 06:53 AM - 1 Like   #61
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
The difference is that there are millions of new cars sold every year. There's a constant supply of new used cars available, so you can just wait a year or two and get the car you want at a 30-50% discount.

If all ILCs go extinct except for a small handful of luxury brands there will be no infusion of cameras into the used market. 3000 used Leicas a year aren't going to feed the demand, unless smartphones really take over essentially all of the current eight million-ish ILCs sold annually today.
But ILCs aren't going to become extinct. There will always be some demand - even if it's at a significantly reduced level from that of a few years ago.

The situation we have right now is that there are too many manufacturers selling too many cameras to a shrinking market. So, manufacturers will have to reduce the number of models they offer and/or increase the time between new releases. Maybe one or more brands will narrow the scope of their offerings to just one format, or even just one or two camera models at any given time. Some brands may exit the business altogether. As a result, the level of supply will adjust to the demand.

And if there aren't enough cameras feeding into the used market, guess what? Used prices will rise (supply and demand, right?), eventually reaching a level where folks will look at the difference in price between new and used cameras, and decide that new is better value...


Last edited by BigMackCam; 06-04-2019 at 07:00 AM.
06-04-2019, 07:43 AM   #62
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QuoteOriginally posted by The Squirrel Mafia Quote
This is very true. Some Pentax users have gotten desperate & have jumped to other brands & not a lot of new users are coming into the Pentax fold. Hopefully Ricoh has something really good up their sleeve. If its some kind of Leica type business model, I can definitely say I'm out. Hopefully its not that.
Do you have a single verifiable fact to support this opinion. People jump brands all the time. It's not a Pentax thing. The only question is are they gaining more than they are losing? I'd be interested in an actual fact to support your opinion. In one of the more rescent posts numbers showed that with the release of the GRiii Ricoh's market share went up, but there could have been an increase in K-1s sold hidden in those numbers. Where as I know of no numbers indicating Pentax is losing more than it's gaining.

Not to mention that in flickr posts, (people who actually use their cameras) if you combine Pentax and Ricoh they are probably ahead of Panasonic and Ricoh have move up 3 spots from #12 to #9 (Pentax breaks into the flickr top 10) and are combined probably ahead of Panasonic and in the eighth spot.

Nothing is really conclusive, I just look for evidence, some of it pretty circumstantial, but you didn't offer us anything but an opinion. When you don't have the facts you need, work with what you can get, surely you have something when you make statements like that?

Last edited by normhead; 06-04-2019 at 07:53 AM.
06-04-2019, 07:51 AM   #63
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QuoteOriginally posted by The Squirrel Mafia Quote
This is very true. Some Pentax users have gotten desperate & have jumped to other brands & not a lot of new users are coming into the Pentax fold. Hopefully Ricoh has something really good up their sleeve. If its some kind of Leica type business model, I can definitely say I'm out. Hopefully its not that.
That's the inevitable result of the Leica model: Most of us would not be here anymore.

---------- Post added 06-04-19 at 10:57 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
But ILCs aren't going to become extinct. There will always be some demand - even if it's at a significantly reduced level from that of a few years ago.

The situation we have right now is that there are too many manufacturers selling too many cameras to a shrinking market. So, manufacturers will have to reduce the number of models they offer and/or increase the time between new releases. Maybe one or more brands will narrow the scope of their offerings to just one format, or even just one or two camera models at any given time. Some brands may exit the business altogether. As a result, the level of supply will adjust to the demand.

And if there aren't enough cameras feeding into the used market, guess what? Used prices will rise (supply and demand, right?), eventually reaching a level where folks will look at the difference in price between new and used cameras, and decide that new is better value...
I don't disagree with any of that. ILCs won't become extinct, or at least I don't think so. I was just responding to a post speculating that in a few years the only thing left will be a tiny number of very high-end, very niche luxury brands. I don't believe that essentially all of the tens of millions of people with ILCs today are going to just use a smartphone in 2025.
06-04-2019, 08:11 AM   #64
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
I don't disagree with any of that. ILCs won't become extinct, or at least I don't think so. I was just responding to a post speculating that in a few years the only thing left will be a tiny number of very high-end, very niche luxury brands. I don't believe that essentially all of the tens of millions of people with ILCs today are going to just use a smartphone in 2025.
The Leica thing is overstated. Pentax/Ricoh is looking for profit margin not market share, but to think they would ever get to Leica land is misleading. And that direction is a reaction to a shrinking market. The difference between Leica and Ricoh/Pentax being, with Pentax it's reaction to a shrinking market that can change at any time. Leica live there, Pentax are visitors. This is important since Pentax has so much APS-c glass already out there and completed a full range line up for APS-c. Pentax can go all Leica for a few years to sell off old inventory, which Leica never produced an equivalent of. But Pentax would have to go a long way to be Leica.

The use of Leica was more of a description of their temporary direction than suggesting the Leica model was anyone's roadmap to success. The recent release of high end glass was an attempt to position Pentax to compete in the pro, semi-pro and advanced amateur market. Something APS-c could never really accomplish. The comparison to Leica was a metaphor.

06-04-2019, 08:46 AM   #65
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In one the his last vlog, Matt Granger did a photo shooting session with his models, using various cameras, medium format and full frames include the Pentax K1. He then printed a book and reviewed prints. His conclusion was that the Pentax K1 rendered well on color and tone gradation among others. Pentax isn't always unpopular, it all depends on the reviewer, the kind of photography and if the reviewer is biased or not.
06-04-2019, 12:24 PM   #66
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
...and if the reviewer is biased or not.
Aren't they all? Aren't we all? I know I didn't do a double-blind comparison of 15 different brands and models before deciding on my K-30.
06-04-2019, 12:31 PM   #67
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
I don't disagree with any of that. ILCs won't become extinct, or at least I don't think so. I was just responding to a post speculating that in a few years the only thing left will be a tiny number of very high-end, very niche luxury brands. I don't believe that essentially all of the tens of millions of people with ILCs today are going to just use a smartphone in 2025.
Understood And I tend to agree with you that we won't end up having to choose between a few high end luxury brands and smartphones. I'm quietly confident that there'll still be plenty of choice in between (though not as much as today) for as long as there are photography enthusiasts with at least some money in their pockets.

QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
I know I didn't do a double-blind comparison of 15 different brands and models before deciding on my K-30.
Hmph... Call yourself a photographer?



06-04-2019, 12:45 PM - 2 Likes   #68
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Aren't they all? Aren't we all? I know I didn't do a double-blind comparison of 15 different brands and models before deciding on my K-30.
I've never needed to depend on reviewers. I know the equipment I own. I know when some reviewer is not knowledgeable when reviewing my gear. There is always someone here on the forum who shoots pentax and something else that i can get user information from. I'm not sure that I've ever bought a piece of camera equipment based on the comments of a reviewer. You know they're biased , so why listen to them, at all? Every now and then I do check the sample photo at Imagine Resources to see that my camera is still in the ballpark, and how it measures up against he latest and greatest, but even then, those images have never convinced me to buy a camera.

I look for bias. Like someone who is so biased he paid the big bucks town the system. I look for someone who uses the systems I'm interested in to find out what they like about it. A biased user gives you much better information than a relatively unbiased reviewer, because he/she tells you what you can do with camera, and don't care so much about what it can't or doesn't do well. What I know about Sony comes from Christina Tham, Winder, pinholecam and BigMackCam. Why would I care what some dude who possibly doesn't even like Sony and doesn't own them for personal use thinks about them?

Last edited by normhead; 06-04-2019 at 12:54 PM.
06-04-2019, 02:14 PM - 1 Like   #69
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
What I know about Sony comes from Christina Tham, Winder, pinholecam and BigMackCam. Why would I care what some dude who possibly doesn't even like Sony and doesn't own them for personal use
I am not sure how much percentage of camera buyer know 100% of what a camera model does and does not do when making the purchase decision. First, even us users of a Pentax models sometimes discover undocumented features / behavior after years of using the camera. Second, I have never seen a reviewer that goes deep into a manual and has tried all possibilities of the camera before doing the review, usually reviews are superficial. People even switch entire systems without being aware of some issues in the new system, they just believe what's being said by the advertisement. Simply unless you rent a camera with the accessories for long enough to dig in the manual and try it all, chances the purchase decision will be approximate, and you'll have to cope with the not so good things you'll stumble on when using the new system.
06-04-2019, 03:17 PM   #70
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QuoteOriginally posted by bladerunner6 Quote
Fuji really doesn’t have that good of a lens lineup.
Among their gaps:
What Fuji dont have is made up for with the excellent AF adapters available for EF mount.There are many high quality lenses from Canon,Sigma,Tamron and Tokina which are compatible.These adapters work as well as native lenses from what Ive tested.Firmware updating keeps pace with reported glitches and new glass introductions.

So any Fuji user can cherry pick the native lenses and do the same with EF/s.
06-04-2019, 08:55 PM   #71
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Canon, Sony, Nikon, & Panasonic seem to be of the opinion that FF mirrorless is the best investment for their business. Olympus is going all in on M4/3. Fuji is committed to being the APS-C camera for the upper end of the market and the GFX for the niche upper end. That is where the money for R&D is being directed. Canon has a whole lot invested in the new glass for the EOS-R. I don't think very highly of the Canon bodies or sensors, but that glass is very nice. Some people think the Panasonic is going to flop, but I don't see that happening. The new L-mount from Panasonic is going to sell to the video first hybrid shooters who love the GH-5 and want to move up. The GH-5 has been a very successful camera/line. Panasonic is a massive company who also makes 4K & 8K panels. Like Sony, Panasonic needs to keep pushing 4K & 8K technology so people will create 4K & 8K content to be displayed on their panels. For Sony and Panasonic these cameras represent a small part of a much bigger ecosystem. Nikon is the one brand out of those 4 that is probably in the most danger of failing. I can see Nikon falling to 4th in terms of FF mirrorless market share. I think Nikon knows how important the hybrid shooter is to this market segment which is why the Z6 was such a surprisingly good video camera.


I don't think APS-C is going anywhere, but if the big 3 slow down on developing APS-C bodies, obviously the market is going to contract significantly.
06-04-2019, 09:09 PM   #72
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
For Sony and Panasonic these cameras represent a small part of a much bigger ecosystem.
Sony will have the problem that their camera are so good now that no customer will upgrade. Canon won't have that problem as they can always deliver better cameras to generate new sales with their current customers. 8K monitor may drive cameras sales again, horizon years 2025 - 2030 (we'll all have to change our displays and upgrade our cameras for 8K videos).
06-04-2019, 10:55 PM   #73
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Canon, Sony, Nikon, & Panasonic seem to be of the opinion that FF mirrorless is the best investment for their business.
Only Panasonic,the others have Apsc as well.(Nikon will be announced this year if the rumours are accurate.Z1 Z9 have been mentioned,the Z5 too but its supposed to rival Canon RP,ff)



QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
Fuji is committed to being the APS-C camera for the upper end of the market
And the lower end,Xtrans for mid level and upper.Bayer for entry level.
06-05-2019, 12:32 AM   #74
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MFT seems to have more format specific lenses than apsc? Only Fuji and Pentax have fully embraced the format. FF lenses on apsc negates the format advantage.
It seems to me MFT is a stronger system than APSC. The sensor size difference to apsc doesn't really matter when the system as a whole is better.

As an apsc shooter I feel in limbo. Pentax FF doesn't have the wide to normal prime lenses I want. I'm also not keen on the weight increase, most of my photography is under travel like circumstances and when I shoot I tend carry the camera all day, including meals and drinks. FF mirrorless would technically be quite good for my needs but I really despise EVF's.

There haven't been any IQ improvements for low iso since my K-3 II. Pixelshift, gps, ovf makes the K-3 II the best camera on the market for me which is all good I'm in no hurry to upgrade the body. It's the lenses that are troublesome. The da* 11-18 is a zoom, very expensive and has some characteristics that I don't like. Despite not wanting it I'm considering the lens. Unfortunately the second hand market would mean a huge loss if I don't love the lens. So as I said limbo
06-05-2019, 02:51 AM   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by house Quote
MFT seems to have more format specific lenses than apsc? Only Fuji and Pentax have fully embraced the format. FF lenses on apsc negates the format advantage.
It seems to me MFT is a stronger system than APSC. The sensor size difference to apsc doesn't really matter when the system as a whole is better.

As an apsc shooter I feel in limbo. Pentax FF doesn't have the wide to normal prime lenses I want. I'm also not keen on the weight increase, most of my photography is under travel like circumstances and when I shoot I tend carry the camera all day, including meals and drinks. FF mirrorless would technically be quite good for my needs but I really despise EVF's.

There haven't been any IQ improvements for low iso since my K-3 II. Pixelshift, gps, ovf makes the K-3 II the best camera on the market for me which is all good I'm in no hurry to upgrade the body. It's the lenses that are troublesome. The da* 11-18 is a zoom, very expensive and has some characteristics that I don't like. Despite not wanting it I'm considering the lens. Unfortunately the second hand market would mean a huge loss if I don't love the lens. So as I said limbo
I don't know that Pentax is going to be doing a lot more APS-C specific lenses in the short term. My guess is that they will re do the 16-50 and 50-135 lenses with new motors and maybe some optical tweaks, but that may be a couple of years away. Currently, their prime line up for APS-C is the 14, 15, 21, 35 (x2), 40, 50, 55, 70, 200, and 300. Obviously, you can use the full frame lenses, like the FA limiteds, as well and since those are pretty small for what they are, there is not a big size issue. On the zoom side, they have 12-24, 11-18, 18-50, 18-55, 16-85, 18-135, 16-50, 50-135, 60-250, and all of the 55-300 lenses. There are probably a few that I've forgotten, but I guess I think the lens line up for APS-C has pretty decent coverage at this point, particularly if you consider the full frame lenses that are available.

Overall, I think the important thing is for camera companies to build to the market. That is to say, that they release cameras and lenses when the demand is there and release a number that they can sell. I am afraid that Nikon, Canon, and even Sony often build to a market that they wish was there, that is to say, the market that was present a few years ago, and end up having to discount gear considerably to move it. That's probably not important to the discussion at hand, but overall it means fewer camera releases and less frequent updating of models.

At the same time, APS-C definitely has a niche that isn't going to go away and will continue to get support. I don't see any indication that Nikon and Canon are going to be able to hit APS-C prices with their full frame cameras and Fuji has doubled down on their "APS-C is just as good as full frame" mantra with them calling medium format "super full frame" (which is silly in my opinion, because when you factor in lenses it is way more expensive than even mid range full frame).

Last edited by Rondec; 06-05-2019 at 03:02 AM.
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