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06-20-2019, 03:12 AM - 2 Likes   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Smartphones have made digital photography accessible for almost everyone, since even the cheaper phones have half-decent cameras these days. And whilst many of us might consider them too limited both in features and image quality, they're "good enough" for lots of folks, and those people probably won't move on to SLR or mirrorless cameras. Then again, phones are even more prolific than compacts were, since even those who have zero interest in photography get a camera with their phone - and some of them will go on to develop an interest, either out of curiosity or so they can contribute to social media within their peer groups. More smartphones and more folks taking photos should, I think, bode quite well for the DSLR and mirrorless market in the medium term - because a minority of phone users will make photography their hobby (perhaps, even, their profession) and will want more than a phone camera can offer. Of course, longer term, we'll still get to a point of almost total saturation...

I wonder if smartphone sales will begin to tail off in the same way interchangeable lens cameras are? Or maybe this is already happening? Certainly, there are members of my family who used to upgrade to each new iPhone, but are now keeping them for longer and missing one or two generations of phone simply because of the cost - and the fact that their existing phones are "good enough"...
Smartphones used to be subsidized pretty heavily at least in the US and now they aren't. The phone companies will sell you a phone and let you pay for it over 24 months -- basically tacking on the price to your phone bill, which may be less painful than paying 700 dollars all at once, but it isn't free.

At the same time, smartphones have shorter life spans than ILCs. The batteries wear out and are often hard to replace. The screens crack and so on. I think even in the best case scenario you probably have to replace your smartphone every three to four years. even if you are pretty satisfied with its performance.

06-20-2019, 08:25 AM - 1 Like   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Smartphones have made digital photography accessible for almost everyone, since even the cheaper phones have half-decent cameras these days. And whilst many of us might consider them too limited both in features and image quality, they're "good enough" for lots of folks, and those people probably won't move on to SLR or mirrorless cameras. Then again, phones are even more prolific than compacts were, since even those who have zero interest in photography get a camera with their phone - and some of them will go on to develop an interest, either out of curiosity or so they can contribute to social media within their peer groups. More smartphones and more folks taking photos should, I think, bode quite well for the DSLR and mirrorless market in the medium term - because a minority of phone users will make photography their hobby (perhaps, even, their profession) and will want more than a phone camera can offer. Of course, longer term, we'll still get to a point of almost total saturation...

I wonder if smartphone sales will begin to tail off in the same way interchangeable lens cameras are? Or maybe this is already happening? Certainly, there are members of my family who used to upgrade to each new iPhone, but are now keeping them for longer and missing one or two generations of phone simply because of the cost - and the fact that their existing phones are "good enough"...
Yes, and even smartphone sales are beginning to decline, now. But it's not because people are abandoning smartphones. Instead, the need for upgrading has subsided.

Similarly, digital cameras have matured which is leading to a decline in sales. The DSLR market is more mature so it seems to be declining faster. The MILC market still has some upgrade-oriented cycles to go but once it matures, MILC sales will decline, too. But shrinking sales does not mean the end.

The bigger issue with smartphones versus ILCs is what you allude to. There's always been a spectrum of camera users from the casual, few-snapshots-per-day, convenience-oriented picture taker to the serious, 1000-images-per-week, control-oriented photographer. In the beginning, only a niche set of "photographers" owned "real cameras." The "picture takers" had instamatics, pocket 110s, polarioids, etc. There was a short historical period when picture takers bought real cameras when those cameras got enough automation to make them convenient (hint picture takers were the camera users who only used P-mode). But then the smartphone came along.

Today, the picture takers love the convenience of the smartphone -- there's no way any ILC can ever hope to win them back over. However, it's just as true that the photographers love the extensive controls, sophisticated features, and dedicated ergonomics of the ILC -- there's no way any smartphone is ever going to win them over, either. And even the compact camera category is still alive and in retail stores -- a friend just bought a very compact Canon from an electronics store chain. He's definitely more of a picture taker than a photographer but his interest in landscape, wildlife, and macro pictures means that a smartphone just can't hack it. (His Canon has a 25-625 equivalent zoom!)
06-20-2019, 09:12 AM   #18
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If you look at almost all advertising for smartphone, the main feature they sell is better camera, twin camera, etc. Huge improvment in photo are now the norm with more and more feature and easier to use. Sorry but like I said 4-5 years ago, the smartphone camera is were the market is. Peoples are not changing their smartphone as often but when they change , one of the key feature they look is better camera. One thing for sure 99,9% of peoples cannot live without a smartphone but can live without an ILC. Also the value propositrion for smartphone camera is easy transfer of photo to social media, message and e-mail without any special equipment.Cannot say the same for ILC
More product are coming niche product today; Stereo system, disk reader, printer, fax, stand alone camera, stand alone radio, etc.

This is the new reality and fighting who of the mirrorless or DSLR is winning is futile as they are all loosing.


Consumer choose were to spend a portion of their available income on toy and camera is not for sure of top of the list.
1) Speed and convenience is the most important thing peoples want. I dont thigb stand alone camera meet that.
2) The second thing is Done for you meaning easy to use, again camera do not fit that bill.

One thing that will die also in the future is forum like the one here, as forum is on the fringe of social media and do not meet the first 2 point above.
06-20-2019, 10:07 AM - 1 Like   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
fighting who of the mirrorless or DSLR is winning is futile as they are all loosing.
They're losing to the large part of the market that doesn't require more control, focal lengths, genuine optical (rather than software generated) rendering, real (rather than composited) dynamic range, etc.. But while the market for interchangeable lens cameras is reducing (and will no doubt continue to do so), it won't die out. It'll find its level. People are listening to music using their smartphones and bluetooth speakers but, all these years on, folks that really care about audio are still buying amplifiers, tuners, media players (turntables, even), speakers and proper audiophile headphones. Nothing like as many as 20 - 30 years ago, granted... but there's still demand and, hence, a viable market.

QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
One thing that will die also in the future is forum like the one here, as forum is on the fringe of social media and do not meet the first 2 point above.
Respectfully, I disagree. Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and the like all have their place(s), but the concept of discussion forums will, I believe, continue. Threaded-discussion forums like this one are really just a gentle evolution of the bulletin boards and usenet groups of the 1980s and 90s. Many years on, forums continue in much the same vein as those old usenet groups. The concept has endured remarkably well. And the reason for that longevity is that - even in a social-media-obsessed world - some folks actually want to discuss and share things at length and in depth in a closed, "club-like" environment. Forums might be subsumed into social media... I could see that happening, maybe... but the basic concept will continue, IMHO, regardless of how it's delivered.


Last edited by BigMackCam; 06-20-2019 at 11:16 AM.
06-20-2019, 10:34 AM - 2 Likes   #20
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Many people over the last few years have decided that conventional social media - Facebook, Twitter, IG, etc - stinks and have left it. And many younger folks prefer social media that is more ephemeral in nature.

I just don't see enthusiast-driven product-based forums like PF going away in the foreseeable future.
06-20-2019, 12:19 PM - 2 Likes   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
If you look at almost all advertising for smartphone, the main feature they sell is better camera, twin camera, etc. Huge improvment in photo are now the norm with more and more feature and easier to use. Sorry but like I said 4-5 years ago, the smartphone camera is were the market is. Peoples are not changing their smartphone as often but when they change , one of the key feature they look is better camera. One thing for sure 99,9% of peoples cannot live without a smartphone but can live without an ILC. Also the value propositrion for smartphone camera is easy transfer of photo to social media, message and e-mail without any special equipment.Cannot say the same for ILC
More product are coming niche product today; Stereo system, disk reader, printer, fax, stand alone camera, stand alone radio, etc.

This is the new reality and fighting who of the mirrorless or DSLR is winning is futile as they are all loosing.


Consumer choose were to spend a portion of their available income on toy and camera is not for sure of top of the list.
1) Speed and convenience is the most important thing peoples want. I dont thigb stand alone camera meet that.
2) The second thing is Done for you meaning easy to use, again camera do not fit that bill.

One thing that will die also in the future is forum like the one here, as forum is on the fringe of social media and do not meet the first 2 point above.
The speed and convenience of getting fish from the supermarket will always beat the cost, complexity, and time required by fishing. One thing for sure, 99% of people can live without a fishing rod, reel, line, lures, hooks, etc.

And yet some people love fishing and others do it professionally. Those people are the customers of a thriving niche industry of product makers and retailers. Photography is just like fishing -- most consumers go for mainstream convenience of smartphones but the few who want more continue to support a thriving niche industry of standalone cameras. Similarly, forums like PF will live on despite the greater popularity of Facebook, Instagram, etc. because PF provides something NOT available from mainstream social media.

Just because 99% of people do one thing, does not mean that it's only viable avenue for business. The 1% of oddballs can be quite profitable for product makers, retailers, and service providers.
06-20-2019, 04:04 PM - 1 Like   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
The speed and convenience of getting fish from the supermarket will always beat the cost, complexity, and time required by fishing. One thing for sure, 99% of people can live without a fishing rod, reel, line, lures, hooks, etc.

And yet some people love fishing and others do it professionally. Those people are the customers of a thriving niche industry of product makers and retailers. Photography is just like fishing -- most consumers go for mainstream convenience of smartphones but the few who want more continue to support a thriving niche industry of standalone cameras. Similarly, forums like PF will live on despite the greater popularity of Facebook, Instagram, etc. because PF provides something NOT available from mainstream social media.

Just because 99% of people do one thing, does not mean that it's only viable avenue for business. The 1% of oddballs can be quite profitable for product makers, retailers, and service providers.
I agree with you and that what I said when I said many product are niche and I believe ILC is becoming one independantly if we like it or not. And niche product are more profitable than mass volume

1,5 billions of smart phone and this will grow again when 5G come versus . ILC for 2018 was around 10 millions unit less than 1% of the sales of smartphone.

Simply look around you,

Worldwide Smartphone Volumes Will Remain Down in 2018 Before Returning to Growth in 2019 and Beyond, According to IDC
I will continue to use and buy DSLR but most wont

06-21-2019, 01:08 AM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
Just because 99% of people do one thing, does not mean that it's only viable avenue for business. The 1% of oddballs can be quite profitable for product makers, retailers, and service providers.
It can be. But this only is acceptable to a very special part of corporations.
So it boils down to the question, which type of corporation owns your camera business.

Just look at Sony, who already had to merge their camera business with others, so we wont ever see dedicated figures again.
And on top of that now it is being discussed if they split off their Sensor business.
Does that sound like a corporation, which is ready to go small and dedicated?
08-27-2019, 01:00 AM   #24
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I am a mirrorless user. But at this moment I am thinking of getting a smartphone with a good image quality. My Iphone 6s front facing camera is not cutting it. I hate taking pictures with my camera. And I hate carrying my camera with me. Especially when I cant see how to frame my family in the shot for a self. I realized that I am loosing documenting our time together, (20 years from now my kids will appreciated those pictures more).

I take my camera for planned family photo shoot.

So if you think I should buy a new camera just to satisfy this need of sales statistics about mirrorless, then I will hope that you will come with us everywhere we go as our selfie man
I will also return the selfie stick that I bought in the spring (Just so you know I never thought I had ever own one of those sticks. NEVER).

Culture.
08-27-2019, 04:41 AM   #25
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Mirrorless has taken a portion of the falling sales of digital cameras. I don't know how much of that market but the reason for it's decline is the ever-better quality of smartphone cameras.

I think mirrorless camera users go the same way as DSLR users - some upgrade after a time, some decide it's still too big/complicated when compared to a smartphone and they sell it off. Are mirrorless users less inclined to upgrade? Possibly, for the same reason that DSLR users are less likely to upgrade now - because the recent cameras are so much better than the ones produced five or ten years ago. Really the only technologies which allow people to get that shot are advances in AF, all the other stuff is icing these days.

At some point the market share will stabilise but the market's in flux with a lot of different forces at work so who's to say when that will be or what proportion of the market will belong to each type of device? DSLRs, large-sensor mirrorless, smartphones - all have their strengths and weaknesses and everyone has their preferences. I don't think there's any doubt that the non-phone camera market will continue to shift towards mirrorless cameras, especially as CaNikon have finally yielded and produced models, though I think take-up will be very slow as the lenses are extremely expensive in both systems. Phones will get better though so the overall market for cameras will continue to decline.

I have also read a lot of reports of people leaving DSLRs to go mirrorless but what gets noticed less are those that decide they don't like their new system and go back to DSLRs. I'm sure that happens but I think the people who do it are less vocal. There are also a lot of people who use both, myself included, so I don't fit neatly in such simple categories.
08-27-2019, 06:59 AM   #26
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People buy smartphones because they are smartphones. The fact that they have a camera is secondary to the fact that they can make phone calls, text, take notes, and have a lot of apps available. People use the cameras on their smartphones, but it is a mistake to think that these are primarily cameras.

"Serious" photographers will continue to purchase ILCs, but not as frequently as at the beginning of the digital revolution. Smart phones will primarily steal away folks who never belonged purchasing an ILC in the first place (how much better results do you actually get with a Nikon D3200 and kit lens than a cell phone?).
08-28-2019, 01:39 AM   #27
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How long did film camera models stay "current"? At least 5, maybe 10, exceptionally 20 (!) years .
How long does a digital camera model stay current in a marketing sense? 6 months? a year? They are superseded by NEW AND IMPROVED (hah) models once or twice a year, but Nikon has used the same sensor in all their APS-C cameras since 2013, adding some small bells and whistles here and there or, as even Ken Rockwell says, "removing actually practical stuff to put in a GPS that doesn't help with taking better pictures".

Ten years ago, cameras were improving by leaps and bounds because the sensor technology was in the booming phase. Nowadays, you get some extra cropping speed, some more fps, 60 more AF points on parts of the frame where you are not supposed to focus anyway... and they slap a 3000€ sticker on top. For, essentially, the same pictures.

People are wising up. Unless you have wads of cash lying around, upgrading in this day and age is nonsensical. You only see a noticeable improvement if you skip 2 or 3 generations. Even if you resell your 1-year old camera at a GOOD price, you are losing 20 or 30% of its value, which is... well, a lot. Not only that, cameras are generally tough machines (particularly if they are Pentax made! :P), so buying second-hand is a very attractive idea...
08-28-2019, 06:56 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
People buy smartphones because they are smartphones. The fact that they have a camera is secondary to the fact that they can make phone calls, text, take notes, and have a lot of apps available. People use the cameras on their smartphones, but it is a mistake to think that these are primarily cameras.

.
I dont agree with you, all phone make call but camera on phone is what is the main marketing and were we see more improvement.

Some have 3 lenses ,HDR and others. and the price with it . Meaning larger profit
08-28-2019, 08:11 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
The alleged success of mirrorless cameras is usually claimed with reference to the stagnant or very slowly rising (let us ignore the recent months drop in mirrorless sales for a moment) sales of such equipment, while DSLR sales drop faster.
ok.
Then we also hear references to anecdotal claims where Joe's brother in law sold his DSLR and now makes the same photos with a new mirrorless toy. This aims to support the idea that lots (read: everybody) of former DSLR shooters now switched.
ok.
You are drawing your conclusions on anecdotal claims and random hearsay. Most of what your saying could be false.
08-29-2019, 02:07 AM - 1 Like   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by bobmaxja Quote
I dont agree with you, all phone make call but camera on phone is what is the main marketing and were we see more improvement.

Some have 3 lenses ,HDR and others. and the price with it . Meaning larger profit
But if none of them had cameras people would still get them. Or, if they all had terrible cameras.

It is true that the cameras have been used as a sales item, a feature to sell one model over another, but people buy smart phones rather than, say, a flip phone and an ILC, because they think they need the features the smart phone offers -- apps, etc.
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