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01-22-2021, 11:24 AM - 2 Likes   #31
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QuoteOriginally posted by tokyoscape Quote
Well, it's pretty much the same to almost every Japanese's camera maker except may be Sony.
Actually, Sony may exit the market before Nikon.

Unlike the other companies, by choice it's not part of the Japanese Zaibatsu system and has activist shareholders in the manner of a US company.

They know cameras are a declining market (nothing to do with covid) and want to get rid of them.

They're not interested in Sony divisions just staying in the black or slightly red, they want big returns on the money they've invested.

Note that I'm not talking about the cameras themselves, or current Sony customers. It's the business' owners, who have understandable motivations.


Last edited by clackers; 01-23-2021 at 11:02 PM.
01-22-2021, 12:02 PM - 14 Likes   #32
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
If this was the first year that Nikon was stumbling I might agree, but Nikon has been falling behind now for 10 years.
Perhaps on some tech measures that's true. But why is that important? Does the best technology win? Of course not. For years Canon had sensors in their cameras that performed worse, in terms of DR at low ISOs, than what Nikon used in their cameras. Yet Canon sold more cameras than Nikon, despite "inferior" tech. Why? Because most hobbyist photographers either don't do much PP or prefer darkened shadows in their images -- so the extra DR in Nikon cameras didn't do anything for them. They just didn't care. (Note: I mention this as a photographer for whom DR is very important.) Now we're being told by review sites that burst rate and video specs are important. I've probably met close to a hundred serious photography enthusiasts over the least six or seven years. Hardly any of them are interested in video, maybe four or five at most have used their cameras in burst mode (half may not even know what burst mode is or how to find it on their cameras). A good portion of these enthusiasts are fifty an older, and there's important economic reason for this: older people have more money, more purchasing power, and so they can afford to buy all kinds of gear. But older people, especially women, are less enthusiastic about the tech side of photography.


The newer technology in cameras mostly benefits professionals (particularly event photographers) and wildlife photographers. But these photographers make up a small segment of the market. The vast majority of serious hobbyist photographers are primarily shooting scenics: landscapes, cityscapes, architecture, travel. Many don't care about the new features in these high-end mirrorless cameras. The biggest complaint I hear from photographers I meet out in the real world (as opposed to those I meet online, who constitutes a self-selecting, and therefore unrepresentative sample) is that the cameras are too difficult to operate. There are still quite a few photographers out there who care more about the experience and aesthetics of taking and making photographic images than they do about gear.


For these reasons, I'm skeptical of this narrative that Nikon is failing because their tech isn't on par with Canon and particularly Sony. This is a narrative being propagated mostly, as far as I can make out, by the gearhead contingent that dominates internet speculation about such matters. These gearheads, for all their expertise about tech and gear, have an almost religious view of science and technology that renders so many of their speculations dubious and estranged from basic facts of human nature and the wisdom of life. Most of the great breakthroughs in physics occurred more than fifty years ago, and for a technology ultimately based in physics, at some point that has to matter; and indeed, we're saying it played on in sensor performance, where have seen little progress over the last ten years. 8000k video and 25fps aren't signs of progress; rather, they're symptoms of an exhausted technology.
01-23-2021, 01:13 PM   #33
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QuoteOriginally posted by northcoastgreg Quote
Perhaps on some tech measures that's true. But why is that important? Does the best technology win? Of course not. For years Canon had sensors in their cameras that performed worse, in terms of DR at low ISOs, than what Nikon used in their cameras. Yet Canon sold more cameras than Nikon, despite "inferior" tech. Why? Because most hobbyist photographers either don't do much PP or prefer darkened shadows in their images -- so the extra DR in Nikon cameras didn't do anything for them. They just didn't care.
Up until Nikon started using Sony sensors, Canon did have the best technology in terms of both AF, high ISO, DR, and overall speed. The Canon 5D (12MP) was the best on the market at that time. AF technology is what moved Canon to the front of the pack. AF and sensor technology is what moved Sony mirrorless up as an industry leader. It surely wasn't their ergonomics, build quality, menus, or user experience that was selling Sony cameras.

As someone who shot weddings and events with a Canon 5D and a Contax 645 for years. Focus accuracy is #1 on the list. I can deal with some noise at higher ISO. I shot TMAX 3200 at concerts for years. I can turn color into B&W and crush the shadows to look like film and the clients are fine. Yes, the Canon sensors were a generation or 2 behind Sony, but they were still more than adequate for professional use. 95% of photographers are using 8-bit displays and outputting 8 bit JPEGs. DR on reflective prints (for the few people who actually print) is only about 8EV. The Canon sensors are more than capable of professional output which is why the sensor advantage that Nikon enjoyed didn't matter as much.

QuoteOriginally posted by northcoastgreg Quote
The newer technology in cameras mostly benefits professionals (particularly event photographers) and wildlife photographers. But these photographers make up a small segment of the market. The vast majority of serious hobbyist photographers are primarily shooting scenics: landscapes, cityscapes, architecture, travel. Many don't care about the new features in these high-end mirrorless cameras. The biggest complaint I hear from photographers I meet out in the real world (as opposed to those I meet online, who constitutes a self-selecting, and therefore unrepresentative sample) is that the cameras are too difficult to operate. There are still quite a few photographers out there who care more about the experience and aesthetics of taking and making photographic images than they do about gear.
How does this address Nikon's decline?

QuoteOriginally posted by northcoastgreg Quote
For these reasons, I'm skeptical of this narrative that Nikon is failing because their tech isn't on par with Canon and particularly Sony.
It must just be a coincidence that the companies that are pushing tech forward the hardest are selling the most cameras? Canon crushed it with the R5/R6 cameras and they are definitely pushing the technology forward. The Nikon Z7II and Z6II were small steps forward in comparison and that will show up in sales unless Nikon is going to cut prices to be the better value, but Nikon is bleeding cash so that's probably not going to happen.

If you think we have seen "little progress over the last 10 years" in sensors then I don't know what to tell you. They might not all be advances that you need for what you want to do with a camera, but the industry doesn't revolve around you and your needs. For an aspiring creative the A7sIII is an amazing camera. Do you know what a camera with the A7sIII features would have cost 10 years ago? I believe the Dalsa 4K camera's daily rental fee was nearly as much as you can buy a Sony A7sIII today and the A7sIII is a much more capable camera. For any photographer/videographer starting out on a tight budget, the low cost options are amazing. Even m4/3 systems are more than capable of professional results.
01-23-2021, 02:04 PM - 2 Likes   #34
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QuoteOriginally posted by northcoastgreg Quote
Perhaps on some tech measures that's true. But why is that important? Does the best technology win? Of course not. For years Canon had sensors in their cameras that performed worse, in terms of DR at low ISOs, than what Nikon used in their cameras. Yet Canon sold more cameras than Nikon, despite "inferior" tech. Why? Because most hobbyist photographers either don't do much PP or prefer darkened shadows in their images -- so the extra DR in Nikon cameras didn't do anything for them. They just didn't care. (Note: I mention this as a photographer for whom DR is very important.) Now we're being told by review sites that burst rate and video specs are important. I've probably met close to a hundred serious photography enthusiasts over the least six or seven years. Hardly any of them are interested in video, maybe four or five at most have used their cameras in burst mode (half may not even know what burst mode is or how to find it on their cameras). A good portion of these enthusiasts are fifty an older, and there's important economic reason for this: older people have more money, more purchasing power, and so they can afford to buy all kinds of gear. But older people, especially women, are less enthusiastic about the tech side of photography.

I think you're right. I used my camera (Pentax S1a) back in the late '60's-70 as a tool to help earn my living. But since then have just been an enthusiast. My S1a was the basic 35mm, no meter, no motor drive, just the 50 mm F 2 and a hand held and cheap light meter. That was it, and it was reliable, durable, got the shot in all kinds of weather and conditions. So as a working 'pro' all I could afford and needed back then was basic, good quality 35mm SLR. I wasn't trying to get too artsy, I just needed to get a good, clear photograph in B + W, good for publication purposes.

During my working life as a non photographer, the budget wasn't there, family, food, shelter, transportation, etc...so I used mostly a Pentax K 1000 and a 35-105 A zoom. This was what I mostly used for 20 odd years.

Now I'm an old and retired, have extra cash. I've spent more on equipment, as I have more to spend on equipment. Generally I use my K1, 24-70 F 2.8 and WR 100 F 2.8 Macro lenses. Or my K5 and Sigma 150-500 and 55-300 for wildlife and far away shots.

I've got other cameras, other lenses, but these are the mainstays and I don't use, or probably know half of the technology on either the K5 or K1, but I'm satisfied + with the pix I get. I only use burst mode on the telephotos with nature shots, usually of birds flying. Get more then one chance, this way.

I also have use a Ricoh GR ll, 28mm F2.8 fixed lens. Great little camera.

I'm not interested in the latest Canon, Nikon, Sony, etc. mirrorless.

Sounds like I fit the demographic.

01-24-2021, 09:49 AM - 4 Likes   #35
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Actually, Sony may exit the market before Nikon.

Unlike the other companies, by choice it's not part of the Japanese Zaibatsu system and has activist shareholders in the manner of a US company.

They know cameras are a declining market (nothing to do with covid) and want to get rid of them.

They're not interested in Sony divisions just staying in the black or slightly red, they want big returns on the money they've invested.

Note that I'm not talking about the cameras themselves, or current Sony customers. It's the business' owners, who have understandable motivations.
Ahem!
  1. Family-controlled vertical monopolies, zaibatsu were dismantled by the US occupation forces (but, as part of the Reverse Course, soon succeeded by keiretsu in an effort to re-industrialize Japan as a bulwark against communism in Asia).
    -
  2. Together with Fujifilm, Olympus and... Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), Sony are part of the Sumitomo Mitsui keiretsu.
This explains why Sony came to Olympus's rescue in 2012 and why JIP were chosen to relieve:
  • Olympus from their mobile phone sales agency ITX in 2012
  • Sony from their Vaio business in 2014
  • Olympus from their imaging business in 2020.
01-24-2021, 12:28 PM - 3 Likes   #36
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QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
How does this address Nikon's decline?
Has Nikon really declined (especially over the last ten years)? My point is that this assessment of decline implies a judgment based on a specific criterion; and it's this criterion I'm calling into question. For the tens (maybe 100s) of thousands who've invested in Nikon gear and are happy with it (extraordinary to think of it, but such people exist), they see no decline. From their criteria, everything is fine in Nikonland. Who's to say which criteria is the right one? I would merely caution against being too dogmatic one way or the other. People have different needs and perspectives and its from this these various criteria that judgments about formats and companies and the rest of it arise. For people into the latest and greatest technology, Nikon is clearly in decline, because their technology seems to much inferior (to the rest of us the differences don't seem so great). And since Nikon had a bad year, that only reaffirms the idea that's all about tech (maybe, but be careful not to confuse correlation with causation). But if, as they have done at many points in their history (see Thom Hogan), catch up in tech in a few years, what then?e.

QuoteOriginally posted by Winder Quote
If you think we have seen "little progress over the last 10 years" in sensors then I don't know what to tell you
I was referring to sensor performance in terms in which, if DXO mark can be trusted, have shown no significant measurable improvements in, roughly, the last ten years. There is, for example, no FF camera released in the last ten years that offers significant ISO performance over the Nikon D3s, which was released as long ago as 2009. The APS-C camera with the second highest DR score is the Pentax K-5, released in 2010. Now sensor performance in terms of imaging can't be dismissed merely as something only I care about (as opposed to all those much superior people buying the latest Sony and Canon gear), as it is precisely improvements in sensor performance that helped fuel the camera boom ten, fifteen years ago, because that's the one improvement in technology that nearly everyone can get on board with, gearhead and photography aesthete alike. Imagine going from the *istDL to the K-5. Now that was an upgrade! But going from the Nikon D750 to the Sony A7III? If you're a gearhead or have special needs as a photographer, you may appreciate the better AF technology (how much better, though, is it really?) and the better burst rate and whatever other bells and whistles it offers. All I'm suggesting is that this new technology is not necessarily to the benefit of the majority of serious hobbyist photographers, either because they don't need the extra features or they're not technically savvy enough to make use of them. If you need the extra features or just love new technology, it's great that these cameras exist. But I am worried that review sites, gearheads, and camera companies are seeking to convince hobbyists to spend thousands of dollars on gear that has features they don't need and hence will likely never use. I get it. The camera companies want a world in which everyone upgrades their cameras every two or three years --- for obvious reasons. But how is that in the interest of the majority of photographers most of whom don't need 25 fps or 8,000K video and our eminently satisfied with the AF performance of their DSLRs?
01-24-2021, 01:28 PM - 1 Like   #37
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Ahem!
  1. Family-controlled vertical monopolies, zaibatsu were dismantled by the US occupation forces (but, as part of the Reverse Course, soon succeeded by keiretsu in an effort to re-industrialize Japan as a bulwark against communism in Asia).
    -
  2. Together with Fujifilm, Olympus and... Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), Sony are part of the Sumitomo Mitsui keiretsu.
This explains why Sony came to Olympus's rescue in 2012 and why JIP were chosen to relieve:
  • Olympus from their mobile phone sales agency ITX in 2012
  • Sony from their Vaio business in 2014
  • Olympus from their imaging business in 2020.
I assume, though, that the other members of the keiretsu will only consider offering help if the afflicted member requests it. If that’s the case, and if Sony’s ownership determines that it doesn’t need help, then shutting down the camera business could happen. I imagine, though, that they’d look for a buyer, rather than shutting it down. Whether that buyer would be JIP or someone else would be up to the board and shareholders to determine, wouldn’t it, rather than be dictated to by the other keiretsu members?

01-24-2021, 02:11 PM   #38
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Heres an interesting view.



Matt is a pro for the last 30 odd years and has owned and used many brands but mostly uses Nickon(he talks funny too).



Last edited by surfar; 01-24-2021 at 03:06 PM.
01-24-2021, 02:34 PM   #39
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It feels like expectations from MILC users are different from SLR users. Folks who use an SLR are OK if video implementation is a little clunky, if they don't have a million auto focus points, and 20 fps frame rates. But that is sort of the expectation now for top end MILCs.

4K video is going to be passé fairly soon and it will be 6K video.

When you get on that sort of tech train, it takes a lot of investment to keep going and to churn out the next iteration of your cameras. I think Nikon can do it, but mirrorless is a very competitive market and releasing a bunch of MILCs is not the same things as selling a bunch of MILCs for MSRP and generating a huge profit.
01-24-2021, 02:45 PM - 1 Like   #40
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Here are some uninspiring pics from my uninspiring 1.8 z-lenses They are all flat, rendered ugly, look plastic, fake, lack 3d pop, have false colours, artificial, overcorrected, software tweaks






Last edited by sundown; 01-24-2021 at 02:52 PM.
01-24-2021, 03:05 PM - 1 Like   #41
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QuoteOriginally posted by sundown Quote
Here are some uninspiring pics from my uninspiring 1.8 z-lenses They are all flat, rendered ugly, look plastic, fake, lack 3d pop, have false colours, artificial, overcorrected, software tweaks




I guess the question is what you would have done with, say a D750 and F mount f1.8 lenses. Or, for that matter, with a Z mount camera and F mount f1.8 lenses with an adapter.

The point from Nikon's standpoint is that a lot of their users don't see enough benefit to invest in Z mount glass, even if they buy a Z mount camera. They just continue to use their F mount lenses with an adapter.
01-24-2021, 04:12 PM   #42
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I think several people are missing the point. The advancements that we are seeing for video will definitely improve still photography. There is already a Sony quad Bayer array sensor that is 100MP, but it will output a 25MP image. That image will have much better dynamic range, high ISO, and color accuracy, But it takes a lot of processing power to handle a quad Bayer array sensor since each time you press the shutter button you are effectively taking 4 (25MP) pictures at once that have to be merged into a single file. It's similar in concept to a 4 exposure pixel shift image, but taken all at once so movement doesn't negatively impact the image. The processing speed that is needed to handle those high MP/high frame rate video is the same processing speed/power that is needed to handle quad Bayer array images. People complaining about the MP race or the video specs don't understand the advantages coming to still imaging. We may still be a generation or two away, but the faster the companies push the envelope the faster the technology will get here for us stills photographers to enjoy.

If your a stills photographer who doesn't want to see improvements to DR, high-ISO, or color accuracy in you stills photography then I understand why you don't like this push for more processing power.
01-24-2021, 04:54 PM   #43
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Family-controlled vertical monopolies, zaibatsu were dismantled by the US occupation forces (but, as part of the Reverse Course, soon succeeded by keiretsu in an effort to re-industrialize Japan as a bulwark against communism in Asia).
Thanks, Mistral, I don't want to use the wrong word, and definitely don't want to invoke Second World War guilt memories!
01-24-2021, 05:03 PM   #44
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
I assume, though, that the other members of the keiretsu will only consider offering help if the afflicted member requests it. If that’s the case, and if Sony’s ownership determines that it doesn’t need help, then shutting down the camera business could happen. I imagine, though, that they’d look for a buyer, rather than shutting it down. Whether that buyer would be JIP or someone else would be up to the board and shareholders to determine, wouldn’t it, rather than be dictated to by the other keiretsu members?
Yeah, Sony has always been different from the other companies, *always* sought outside capital and expertise (going back to Masaru Ibuka visiting America, going into entertainment and even had a non Japanese CEO. The cost is, it's not a family business anymore, your private goals and aims get lost when they clash with those of the investors.

The opposite is a company like Sigma, not listed, AFAIK, still a family business. They might risk/indulge loss makers like I think the Foveon cameras were and possibly their L series cameras are now, out of love. Since lens sales have dropped, a lens manufacturer would be in trouble. They have oriented as a premium brand to survive. Diversifying into cameras only made sense if cameras weren't also in decline!
01-24-2021, 05:37 PM   #45
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QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Since lens sales have dropped, a lens manufacturer would be in trouble.
Doesn't seem like that for Sigma though.

In a recent interview, some bigTime official was quizzed about making glass for RF and Zee mount(zed) to you.

The official said Yes,but they can't fit it in due to the demand for the existing mounts at present.

So F..L.EF/s. .FE/e.
.M43(only a few)...Canon M(only a few) are keeping them busy.The Pandemic would have complicated things a bit.

---------- Post added 01-25-21 at 11:38 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Sigma, not listed, AFAIK, still a family business.
Unique for their size.
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