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02-01-2021, 04:23 PM - 1 Like   #61
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QuoteOriginally posted by LeeRunge Quote
The D850 is probably holding back scores of people who might otherwise go for the Z7, same for the D750 to Z6 transition. Unless you really want an EVF or really need the video improvements there’s no difference in end image results (Z glass is nicer, but the average viewer won’t notice the difference between F and Z). The D850 espiecially is better than any of the Z’s currently for AF-C and action as they still have some EVF blackout issues.

Canon seems to have laid any doubt to rest with the R5 in Canon users and they’re now jumping to it as fast as they can make them. Sony has a bunch of solid performers and then this latest flagship that’s way out of most users price range.

Personally I went for a Z5 and I’m very happy with it for everything but fast action because the EVF isn’t there yet for that. But for all other shooting it’s great. For me the Z glass has weather sealing like Pentax and far better than the F mount, so that’s a major advantage for me. End image results are no different than what I’d get with the D750 and that’s the huge problem Nikon has. Video needs drove a lot of people to Sony and Canon (And Panasonic). And Nikon isn’t historically as good for video as those company's although the Z6 and Z6ii are very good.

The question is will enough people go for a Z camera or will they just stick with the D750/850/500 and Nikon will bleed out and fall far behind in R/D. They’re a victim of just how good the DSLR’s they made were/are. Pentax wanting to become the sole survivor of DSLR will have a problem if Nikon updates the D850 to 880 as expected with mirrorless live view improvements like the D780. That could also happen to the D500 in time. That would keep a lot of people fully invested in F mount very happy for another 5+ years as sensor tech is very stagnant now other than megapixel increases.

There will be a Nikon Z8/9 on the way and if that steals the spec sheet away from the latest Canon’s and Sony’s for a while then they won’t have much to say Nikon’s doomed about as they do now for eye detect AF in birds.

Things like the megadap adapter (AF in manual lenses from nearly everyone for Z mount) are pretty appealing as well due to Nikon waiting and releasing the largest mount so anything can be adapted to it. That could be huge if at some point third party’s adapt any mount into Z. For example I could use all my K mount lenses with my Z5 which would be great if an adapter shows up similar to the FTZ. For now it’s doable for manual focus or with something like the megadap but that’s pretty fidly.
The D850 is superb and neglected, Lee.

But the issue from Nikon's financial disasters is that not enough of any of their cameras - new mirrorless or proven DSLR - is being bought by the public.

The dollars aren't just bleeding, they're spurting from the artery.

02-01-2021, 04:52 PM   #62
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I was in my local camera shop last week picking up a new lens and talking to the staff, I was surprised to hear they have a waiting list for the D850. I looked on B&H and they are sold out also, that's pretty good for a three or four year old camera.
02-01-2021, 05:24 PM   #63
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QuoteOriginally posted by KiloHotelphoto Quote
I was in my local camera shop last week picking up a new lens and talking to the staff, I was surprised to hear they have a waiting list for the D850. I looked on B&H and they are sold out also, that's pretty good for a three or four year old camera.
Terrific camera. 42Mp is not shrinking the pixels too much over 36Mp, so a sensor of that kind would be a good candidate for the K-1 successor (which would feature the internals of the K-3 III and benefit from its testing and development).
02-01-2021, 05:49 PM - 1 Like   #64
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QuoteOriginally posted by KiloHotelphoto Quote
I was in my local camera shop last week picking up a new lens and talking to the staff, I was surprised to hear they have a waiting list for the D850. I looked on B&H and they are sold out also, that's pretty good for a three or four year old camera.
That and the Z6/7ii are on back order. The z6ii for two months now. Either they can’t make them or there’s some demand that seems counter to all the reports. Maybe a better year ahead? They also have some shortages on Z lenses as well.

It’s also not uncommon for them to take ages to fill camera stock after launch. The D850 went on sale in december and sold out quickly.

They have a Z9 on the way here in the coming year which will be important if it somehow leap frogs the Sony and Canon cameras in AF performance or other specs.

They either make it or they don’t and we shall see. But the Z cameras appear to be selling here or they can’t make them.

---------- Post added 02-01-2021 at 06:52 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
The D850 is superb and neglected, Lee.

But the issue from Nikon's financial disasters is that not enough of any of their cameras - new mirrorless or proven DSLR - is being bought by the public.

The dollars aren't just bleeding, they're spurting from the artery.
Yeah if they don’t do well with the recent Z cameras then It’ll be a Canon and Sony world in the future. We shall see. I think they have a headline camera coming in the next year so if that’s a disappointment it won’t be good for them.

The Z6/7ii have been out of stock for a while here whether that’s demand or they can’t build them I don’t know.

02-01-2021, 06:56 PM - 1 Like   #65
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I wonder how JIP will market those things?

...They used OMD Solutions for the M43 segment.

I suppose NKN Zolutions may be a good fit for when they get to Nikon?
02-02-2021, 11:25 AM - 1 Like   #66
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QuoteOriginally posted by surfar Quote
...They used OMD Solutions for the M43 segment.

I suppose NKN Zolutions may be a good fit for when they get to Nikon?
With how capable smartphones are getting JIP may need to start reserving these website names in advance for most of the camera brands.

They’ll probably have 200-600mm telephoto’s built in and action algorithms in a few years.
02-02-2021, 11:36 AM   #67
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QuoteOriginally posted by LeeRunge Quote
With how capable smartphones are getting
ive been say something along these lines for a good few years now.

I had a Samsung phone that was shaped like a camera, only a P&S sensor but 24-240 that's always on.Thats really handy and I got used to having that range which got Dittoed by the RF24-240.Sadly,the phn stopped working.No more Samsung pHns for me.

The AI race is on,SmartPhones dominate the earth now.Where they will be in a few years???...A long way more advanced than now!

02-02-2021, 12:06 PM   #68
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QuoteOriginally posted by surfar Quote
ive been say something along these lines for a good few years now.

I had a Samsung phone that was shaped like a camera, only a P&S sensor but 24-240 that's always on.Thats really handy and I got used to having that range which got Dittoed by the RF24-240.Sadly,the phn stopped working.No more Samsung pHns for me.

The AI race is on,SmartPhones dominate the earth now.Where they will be in a few years???...A long way more advanced than now!
Yeah looking 10 years from now maybe all these camera company’s will be gone and we’ll just have 24-600mm smartphones that shoot at 200FPS at 50 megapixel and edit everything automatically to your own personal taste because the AI knows you.
02-02-2021, 12:33 PM   #69
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QuoteOriginally posted by KiloHotelphoto Quote
they have a waiting list
There are two factors that come into play:

a) lots of old die hard fans deeply entrenched in F lenses will grab what they perceive to be "the last model of a good DSLR" in their historic mount. Kind of a prepper situation. Not toilet paper, but F mount cameras.

b) there is a severe crunch on silicon chips going on worldwide, which does affect a lot of productions. Even the car industry is victim of this and they certainly have a LOT more money in the game and more aggressive contracts. Consumer goods such as cameras certainly have a much weaker position in the queue.

Any waiting lists for things with computer chips currently is no evidence for demand but only for chip supply shortages.

In the end a situation where you cant even sell the few products in demand also isn't exactly a sign of strength for a company that is falling and falling. They do need all the dollars they can make.
02-02-2021, 12:47 PM   #70
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QuoteOriginally posted by LeeRunge Quote
Yeah looking 10 years from now maybe all these camera company’s will be gone and we’ll just have 24-600mm smartphones that shoot at 200FPS at 50 megapixel and edit everything automatically to your own personal taste because the AI knows you.
The Jetsons had all this modern tech, back a long time ago.The future is unknown but only limited by the human mind!
02-02-2021, 02:26 PM - 1 Like   #71
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
There are two factors that come into play:

a) lots of old die hard fans deeply entrenched in F lenses will grab what they perceive to be "the last model of a good DSLR" in their historic mount. Kind of a prepper situation. Not toilet paper, but F mount cameras.

b) there is a severe crunch on silicon chips going on worldwide, which does affect a lot of productions. Even the car industry is victim of this and they certainly have a LOT more money in the game and more aggressive contracts. Consumer goods such as cameras certainly have a much weaker position in the queue.

Any waiting lists for things with computer chips currently is no evidence for demand but only for chip supply shortages.

In the end a situation where you cant even sell the few products in demand also isn't exactly a sign of strength for a company that is falling and falling. They do need all the dollars they can make.
I guess we’ll see in future quarterly reports if it was actual demand and strong sales numbers or no chips for sale.

The iphone may outperform and kill off all but a handful of sales for these cameras in the next 10 years anyway. The 12 was the first one that I actually use often for photo’s now that it works in the dark really well and the RAW images are great. If it was a 24-200 I probably would rarely ever bother bringing an ILC camera with me.


The gap keeps closing.
02-02-2021, 04:41 PM - 2 Likes   #72
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I think phones have a long way to go before I can give up my cameras and lenses.

I took these shots a few month ago when I was bored and waiting for the hawks to come out for dinner. Taken at Valley Forge NP of a pair of cabins 617 yards away, I used a laser range finder for distance. One shot with a iphone the other with a Canon R5 and 600 F4 with 1.4 TC. both are full frame no crop.
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02-03-2021, 12:30 AM   #73
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QuoteOriginally posted by LeeRunge Quote
The gap keeps closing.
That was a good exercise, my score was same as Matts but 1 different error.His monitor is probably better than the old TV I use though and his eyes are 30-40 years younger.
02-03-2021, 03:45 AM - 1 Like   #74
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I don't think people understand. The question isn't whether Nikon can release more cameras. Olympus released lots and lots of cameras. The question is whether they can sell enough of those cameras (and lenses for them) to turn on a profit -- particularly considering the large investment in R and D it has taken to release those cameras and lenses.

Continuing in the SLR market in many ways would have been the safe way to go. Less investment, solid existing base of users. Releasing a MILC line up with a new mount works if you can convince people that their F mount lenses were no good and that they really need to pay 50 percent more to get the Z mount version of their lenses. It feels like that aspect of things is what has not really panned out. F mount shooters are actually pretty happy with their F mount lenses and the idea that they could get a lens that is 10 percent sharper in the corners for a lot more money doesn't really get them to drop these lenses into the shopping cart.
02-03-2021, 03:51 AM   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by LeeRunge Quote
I guess we’ll see in future quarterly reports if it was actual demand and strong sales numbers or no chips for sale.

The iphone may outperform and kill off all but a handful of sales for these cameras in the next 10 years anyway. The 12 was the first one that I actually use often for photo’s now that it works in the dark really well and the RAW images are great. If it was a 24-200 I probably would rarely ever bother bringing an ILC camera with me.

https://youtu.be/idW2ZGcHbaE

The gap keeps closing.
All of them were obvious to me, and that's using half a screen for each photo...
The iPhone absolutely wrecks facial textures when compared to the Canon, they look unnaturally smoothed out*. It works very well for landscapes and hey, without a side to side comparison it's fine for portraits too, most people will be very pleased with the quality of the images. It's still incredible how much IQ can be packed in a smartphone, of course, and phones are indeed getting better faster than ILCs.

*And the highlights on the skin look very weird to me, like the software tries to color-correct them or something...

---------- Post added 02-03-21 at 04:08 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I don't think people understand. The question isn't whether Nikon can release more cameras. Olympus released lots and lots of cameras. The question is whether they can sell enough of those cameras (and lenses for them) to turn on a profit -- particularly considering the large investment in R and D it has taken to release those cameras and lenses.

Continuing in the SLR market in many ways would have been the safe way to go. Less investment, solid existing base of users. Releasing a MILC line up with a new mount works if you can convince people that their F mount lenses were no good and that they really need to pay 50 percent more to get the Z mount version of their lenses. It feels like that aspect of things is what has not really panned out. F mount shooters are actually pretty happy with their F mount lenses and the idea that they could get a lens that is 10 percent sharper in the corners for a lot more money doesn't really get them to drop these lenses into the shopping cart.
That's what I think as well, the Z lenses are excellent but if I had a Nikon F-mount 20/1.8 I wouldn't drop another 1000€ on a slightly better Z-mount option... or heck, the 50/1.8 IMO should have been much more compact, it's nice that it's an optically excellent normal and it's half the weight of a super-50/1.4 like the DFA* or the Sigma Art, but it's not three times as good as the humble 50/1.8G I'd say.

Last edited by Serkevan; 02-03-2021 at 03:56 AM.
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