[Dan Rentea]

A very short time ago mirrorless was highly criticized for NOT being able to focus as quickly and accurately as DSLRs. The tail is wagging the dog here. Mirrorless required new lenses to provide accurate and fast focus. Mirrorless required sensor updates to include PDAF on sensor which wasn’t needed on DSLRs. The explosion of new lenses has led to improved designs over existing lenses but there is nothing inherent in mirrorless making this a superior platform optically - on the contrary the mirrorless lenses often leverage a lot more software correction to meet the user expectations masking optical issues that can cause slight degradation over a better uncorrected lens but with a smaller and lighter design.

My own take is that hype more than need is driving this move. I ran into a Nikon shooter who along with her husband has been a pro for 20+ years. They have had no customer feedback asking for things they can’t do with their d300s. However they feel like they need to move to mirrorless. When asked the photographer I spoke with had no answer for why. An article on Petapixel a few years back showed a similar push for equipment updates (not to mirrorless at that time) but the same pressure from the photographer feeling out of date but having no actual issue selling images or capturing them. Gear crazy people will love that the A1 can do what it can. But it is likely fewer than 5-10% “need” it to get the shots.

Until the latest firmware update for Sony A7 III and A9, the af wasn't that great on mirrorless, with Sony's af being at that time more advanced than Fuji, Panasonic or Olympus. Things have changed since then and mirrorless af became reliable and even better than the one found in DSLRs, at least on Sony, Canon and I tend to believe even on Nikon.

As for mirrorless lenses, I used them side by side on the same body with the DSLR alternatives and they are better, at least the ones I've used. The 28-70mm f2L lens it's absolutely stunning and there isn't any Canon DSLR alternative to that lens.

[BigMackCam]

There are certain group of folks who have a preference for film photography also, but it's a niche. There are too many DSLR users in order for me to imply that DSLRs will become a niche in 2-4 years, but it's quite impressive how fast mirrorless gains popularity. And if new DSLRs won't be released anymore, people will start to switch. Some will replace the bodies first and continue to use DSLR lenses on them with adapter until the lenses need to be replaced (myself included), some will replace the entire DSLR system with a mirrorless one. At some point, cameras and lenses have to be replaced, especially when we talk about photographers who use their gear to earn some money or to make a living out of it.

The fact that an R6 it's close to 1Dx Mark III in terms of tracking and the animal eye af makes it a little better than the flagship in certain circumstances, with the R6 beeing less than half the price of 1Dx, it can't be ignored by enthusiastic photographers who don't afford or simply don't need the build quality, weight and durability of the 1Dx.

As much as I love to, I really don't think that OVF will be such an important aspect so that Pentax can count as an alternative for the lack of new Canon and Nikon DSLRs. Mostly because you only have one alternative to choose from in terms of full frame, because there are some gaps in lens department that needs time to be filled, because of the slow release of new products and not lastly, the lack of third party support.

You paint a bleak picture, Dan. Rather than impressive, I'd say it's rather sad that mirrorless is taking hold - at least when it's at the expense of, rather than alongside, DSLR. But I guess I'm one of those in the DSLR "niche", though I refuse to characterise it as such, as it only perpetuates the assertion - and I'm not sure I accept or agree with that assertion just yet. Maybe the massive popularity of mirrorless will encourage its followers to congregate on mirrorless-specific forums and leave us old codgers in peace to enjoy our niche technology... I can live in hope

[Dan Rentea]

It's great that you got used to EVFs, but you have to wonder... if it took two years, is that worth it to most folks? I mean, it should take much less time now with better EVFs, but still... if it's an effort to acclimatise to them, isn't that taking something away from the enjoyment? I realise effort is required in photography, but most of the challenges I've encountered are to do with technique, and I've found those enjoyable...

Having said that, I've been really lucky with EVFs. I've not had a problem with any but the very earliest, and I could still use those without discomfort. None of them I've tried thus far, though, has given an OVF experience... not even close. They just feel very different in use to me...

Yes, it's a huge difference in the EVF found in Sony A6000, Sony A7 or Fuji X-T2 and EVFs from A7R IV, EOS R/R5, or Z6/Z7. Also, I was one of the few with big problems due to some medical sensibilities I have on my eyes and that's why it took me so long to "train my eyes". None of the above applies to the majority because EVFs are way better than they used to be and even less have the medical sensitivity I have to live with. Not to mention that it takes a lot less to adapt when you don't have alternatives. For the moment DSLRs are here and they are still capable. But new DSLR models seems to be history for the manufacturers who can make an impact on the current market (Canon and Nikon).

---------- Post added 01-29-21 at 11:44 PM ----------

You paint a bleak picture, Dan. Rather than impressive, I'd say it's rather sad that mirrorless is taking hold - at least when it's at the expense of, rather than alongside, DSLR. But I guess I'm one of those in the DSLR "niche", though I refuse to characterise it as such, as it only perpetuates the assertion - and I'm not sure I accept or agree with that assertion just yet. Maybe the massive popularity of mirrorless will encourage its followers to congregate on mirrorless-specific forums and leave us old codgers in peace to enjoy our niche technology... I can live in hope

I love to see new technology being released. I grew up with black and white TVs, without mobile phones or computers. I miss those times because of the sensation of freedom that I had, but I also enjoy these times. I don't see myself shooting with a film camera even if I grew up looking at my father developing films in our bathroom. There will always be people that will have some problems in adapting to new technologies and they will postpone as much as they can the transition to something new or simply won't make the transition at all (I know a few who still shoot with film cameras), but the number are so small that won't make a difference for manufacturers. DSLRs in my opinion are heading in this direction and the next generation of mirrorless will accelerate the transition process. Again, a personal opinion (not a debate about who's right or wrong) by looking at trends...

[BigMackCam]

Yes, it's a huge difference in the EVF found in Sony A6000, Sony A7 or Fuji X-T2 and EVFs from A7R IV, EOS R/R5, or Z6/Z7. Also, I was one of the few with big problems due to some medical sensibilities I have on my eyes and that's why it took me so long to "train my eyes". None of the above applies to the majority because EVFs are way better than they used to be and even less have the medical sensitivity I have to live with. Not to mention that it takes a lot less to adapt when you don't have alternatives. :D For the moment DSLRs are here and they are still capable. But new DSLR models seems to be history for the manufacturers who can make an impact on the current market (Canon and Nikon).

There will always be people that will have some problems in adapting to new technologies and they will postpone as much as they can the transition to something new or simply won't make the transition at all (I know a few who still shoot with film cameras), but the number are so small that won't make a difference for manufacturers. DSLRs in my opinion are heading in this direction and the next generation of mirrorless will accelerate the transition process.

I usually enjoy chatting with you, Dan, but - with respect - I think this is unhelpful, even in the Non-Pentax section of PentaxForums... and whilst I don't hold you responsible personally, this kind of tips it over the edge for me. I think I need a break... Way too much pro-mirroless / actively-and-passively-anti-DSLR stuff going on in my chosen club-house over the last few months The shame of it is, I was kind of supportive to both OVF and EVF camps. Oh well...

[Dan Rentea]

I usually enjoy chatting with you, Dan, but - with respect - I think this is unhelpful, even in the Non-Pentax section of PentaxForums... and whilst I don't hold you responsible personally, this kind of tips it over the edge for me. I think I need a break... Way too much pro-mirroless / actively-and-passively-anti-DSLR stuff going on in my chosen club-house over the last few months Oh well...

See my above comment. I'm just adding up comments and numbers from internet and EVF seems a problem for a small procent. There are less than 15% of Canon shooters who would like to see a 5D Mark V being released. At least this was the procent of a poll in the Canon forum. I understand the pro OVF comments and arguments but I also see that it's like a Canon vs Nikon debate when comes to EVFs and OVFs with the only difference that pro OVFs people are much less than there were 3 years ago, generally speaking.

[MarkJerling]

Still, Pete?

At $6,500 (AU$10,499) are you surprised?

I'm sure it will be fantastic, but at NZ$10,995 that's to be expected.
Oh, and if you can convince my wife to allow me to spend $11,000 on a camera body I'd love to learn your technique!

[MarkJerling]

I usually enjoy chatting with you, Dan, but - with respect - I think this is unhelpful, even in the Non-Pentax section of PentaxForums... and whilst I don't hold you responsible personally, this kind of tips it over the edge for me. I think I need a break... Way too much pro-mirroless / actively-and-passively-anti-DSLR stuff going on in my chosen club-house over the last few months The shame of it is, I was kind of supportive to both OVF and EVF camps. Oh well...

Yup. I second that. (But do let me know when you find an EVF that looks, shall we say, "natural".)

[gatorguy]

... I also see that it's like a Canon vs Nikon debate when comes to EVFs and OVFs with the only difference that pro OVFs people are much less than there were 3 years ago, generally speaking.

In truth there are far fewer standalone camera buyers than there were three years ago, and that's not even "generally speaking". The camera market as a whole is in decline, and there are no exceptions that I know of.

Canon revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 was $7.133B, a 11.78% decline year-over-year.
Canon revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $29.455B, a 12.66% decline year-over-year.
Canon annual revenue for 2019 was $33.058B, a 8.08% decline from 2018.
Canon annual revenue for 2018 was $35.963B, a 0.96% decline from 2017.
Canon annual revenue for 2017 was $36.312B, a 16.04% increase from 2016.

Notice the trend, and that's for one of the healthiest camera companies.

IMO the companies at the top have no choice other than to make the "old" as unattractive as possible (even if it's their own) thru promotion and marketing of the "new". Their sales are declining far too rapidly to roll out both new DSLR's and new MILC's so they've picked their sides, which may create an opening for a company or two willing to fill the gap they left behind in their quest to blunt the sales lost to Sony and steal back some of it. Going all in on mirrorless only slows their decline.

IMO every camera manufacturer is going to have to craft some way of surviving in a much tinier pool. MUCH tinier. Smaller fish may have some advantage over the big'uns who simply can't survive without more to eat.

Just my .02 cents.

[c.a.m]

Oh, and if you can convince my wife to allow me to spend $11,000 on a camera body I'd love to learn your technique!

On the other hand...

Chatting during dinner washing-up the other evening, I mentioned to my wife that Sony has come out with a new high-performance mirrorless camera, with all sorts of features.

Me: And, it's got real-time eye autofocus.
Sue: Is it as good as [our son's] Fuji? (He's got an X-T3; we're always bantering about my Pentax.)
Me: It's better.
Sue: And how much does it cost?
Me: Ummm..... eighty-five hundred...
Sue: THERE'S NO WAY YOU'RE GETTING THAT!
Sue: Almost makes that new Pentax seem cheap and affordable... and you already have the lenses...

After a moment, she exclaimed

"Hey, just a second. Was that a ploy?"

My friends, I think that I'm in for the K-3 Mark III, thanks to Sony (pending intro price and early reviews, of course).

- Craig

[gatorguy]

On the other hand...

Chatting during dinner washing-up the other evening, I mentioned to my wife that Sony has come out with a new high-performance mirrorless camera, with all sorts of features.

Me: And, it's got real-time eye autofocus.
Sue: Is it as good as [our son's] Fuji? (He's got an X-T3; we're always bantering about my Pentax.)
Me: It's better.
Sue: And how much does it cost?
Me: Ummm..... eighty-five hundred...
Sue: THERE'S NO WAY YOU'RE GETTING THAT!
Sue: Almost makes that new Pentax seem cheap and affordable... and you already have the lenses...

After a moment, she exclaimed

"Hey, just a second. Was that a ploy?"

My friends, I am in.

- Craig

I've been dropping little comments like that around my wife too. "Gosh honey, can you imagine spending $5000 on a camera and then another two or three K on a couple of lens cause their old ones aren't made for it? Geesh, some of these photographers are crazy!"

I think I'm making headway.

[surfar]

Canon revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 was $7.133B, a 11.78% decline year-over-year.

Well, the information Ive seen for the Canon Imaging segment is that they exceeded expectations for 2020.Operating income rose 49% over the 2019 figures and this was achieved with 25% less sales.not too bad for

one of the healthiest camera companies.

In one of the unhealthiest years ever.

[Dan Rentea]

In truth there are far fewer standalone camera buyers than there were three years ago, and that's not even "generally speaking". The camera market as a whole is in decline, and there are no exceptions that I know of.

Canon revenue for the quarter ending September 30, 2020 was $7.133B, a 11.78% decline year-over-year.
Canon revenue for the twelve months ending September 30, 2020 was $29.455B, a 12.66% decline year-over-year.
Canon annual revenue for 2019 was $33.058B, a 8.08% decline from 2018.
Canon annual revenue for 2018 was $35.963B, a 0.96% decline from 2017.
Canon annual revenue for 2017 was $36.312B, a 16.04% increase from 2016.

Notice the trend, and that's for one of the healthiest camera companies.

IMO the companies at the top have no choice other than to make the "old" as unattractive as possible (even if it's their own) thru promotion and marketing of the "new". Their sales are declining far too rapidly to roll out both new DSLR's and new MILC's so they've picked their sides, which may create an opening for a company or two willing to fill the gap they left behind in their quest to blunt the sales lost to Sony and steal back some of it. Going all in on mirrorless only slows their decline.

IMO every camera manufacturer is going to have to craft some way of surviving in a much tinier pool. MUCH tinier. Smaller fish may have some advantage over the big'uns who simply can't survive without more to eat.

Just my .02 cents.

Quote from Canon "Canon has released its financials for 2020 and it looks like they exceeded expectations, even if only slightly. Canon’s imaging segment saw a 49% rise in its operating income over 2019." A healthy company does everything to make sure it's stays healthy during market decline and on top of that they had to deal with the pandemic which made things worse for everybody, not only for Canon. With mirrorless they only provided what their users asked for and they made sure to release 2 cameras (R6 and R5) that will satisfy their user base which was affected by Sony and Fuji. One of the Nikon managers said recently that in their case they were a little late in the mirrorless market and he wasn't talking about the release date of their mirrorless, he was talking about them being late in developing the technology for mirrorless and that's why they are behind Sony and Canon with their cameras in terms of performance. Nikon did made an attempt to adress their DSLR users with the release of D780 that was a nice upgrade over one of the most popular Nikon cameras (D750), but their users let them know they want mirrorless by not adopting the D780 in large numbers. So, it's not that Nikon tried to make their DSLRs old in order to push mirrorless. On the contrary, they added all the mirrorless tech in the D780 (in live view) while improving the DSLR features. It's their user base who let them know that they want something different. Same for Canon who released the 90D which is a very capable high resolution DSLR with mirrorless capabilities in live view. Canon has the biggest user base, user base that let them know they want/need a change and when the change came, they rewarded Canon by buying in large quantities R6 and R5 and this reflect in the Canon financial report.

So yes, Canon and Nikon had to pick a way to stay healthy in the future, but this decision was only as a response to their user base. And as I said, in Canon rumors there was a poll regarding the release of a DSLR to replace 5D Mark IV and Canon users were more interested in how the upgrade of R5 will look like, rather than a new DSLR. A big role in the fast adoption of mirrorless had the adapter which made DSLR lenses to work without flaws on mirrorless bodies. That's why a lot of my friends sold their Sony and came back to Canon because they kept their best Canon lenses and used them on Sony with adapters.

One thing for sure, if the majority of the user base let Canon know they want mirrorless by switching to Sony, releasing a DSLR would only made things worse for Canon.

It will be the same for Pentax if the new DSLRs will not reflect in sales. They will have to make a decision at some point. It's just a matter of time. For the moment, the majority of Pentax user base seems interested in DSLRs and Pentax in my opinion put a much bigger effort than before in developing the K3 Mark III, which seems a big jump on paper from everything Pentax released before. They knew that they need to push things more than usual to make their new DSLR attractive to their user base. It's the market who dictate what Canon, Nikon, Sony, Pentax, Fuji will do next. Sony just offered an alternative to DSLRs and they made sure people will become interested by making huge efforts in marketing and paid known photographers to use their cameras. And people responded by asking mirrorless from Canon and Nikon. They asked by switching to Sony in so many numbers if we look at Sony market share that counted for the big 2.

Pentax adressed the complains and demands of their current user base by adding a much improved af system, a larger OVF and 4k for video on their new DSLR. It's their safest bet and the cheapest also considering the options. Their user base will let them know if releasing new DSLRs will be enough to continue to go this path. Again, for the moment it seems they made the improvements required by Pentax user base and the confirmation will come after people will get the chance to use K3 Mark III in real life.



---------- Post added 01-30-21 at 08:15 AM ----------

On the other hand...

Chatting during dinner washing-up the other evening, I mentioned to my wife that Sony has come out with a new high-performance mirrorless camera, with all sorts of features.

Me: And, it's got real-time eye autofocus.
Sue: Is it as good as [our son's] Fuji? (He's got an X-T3; we're always bantering about my Pentax.)
Me: It's better.
Sue: And how much does it cost?
Me: Ummm..... eighty-five hundred...
Sue: THERE'S NO WAY YOU'RE GETTING THAT!
Sue: Almost makes that new Pentax seem cheap and affordable... and you already have the lenses...

After a moment, she exclaimed

"Hey, just a second. Was that a ploy?"

My friends, I think that I'm in for the K-3 Mark III, thanks to Sony (pending intro price and early reviews, of course).

- Craig

I adopted another strategy. I started to sell images on stock agencies and by providing in demand content for them, I made a litter over 10.000$ in 2020 from stock. 4000$ goes to my wife as a Queen tribute ( ) and the difference it's mine to spend as I want given that this is passive income and I'm not affecting the family budget.

[Kunzite]

Hmm... I don't think it's as simple as "the userbase said so".

Let's think a bit about the context of each company. With Sony, IMO, it's clear: they had big ambitions (way beyond Konica-Minolta's), and couldn't possibly challenge Canon for the top spot with DSLRs - they had to change, to play a different game.
Canon and Nikon... it doesn't look like their user bases are talking with a single voice; I remember some comments about how most of their sales are still DSLRs. But that's irrelevant to them.

IMO mirrorless - from the companies' perspective - is the new EOS mount; doing something new because it has great future potential, that is, in selling at high volumes. Olympus failed. For Sony it works well. Canon can't let Sony to the EOS thing on them, so they're targeting the #1 market share spot. Nikon is trying to keep up with whomever is the leader. It's like the Game of Thrones: you win or you die.
If a large part of the user base would've been happy with DSLRs... they're not more significant than the FD users were But in the end, for some of these companies, the gains will be greater than the losses.

Long story short, I don't think it's people insistently asking for mirrorless, as much as people being driven to mirrorless - often forcefully.
The A1 is part of this; a camera made to impress; and the specs sheet indeed looks wow!. By the way, I don't remember ever seeing press releases with as many footnotes as for Sony cameras.

[repaap]

On the other hand...

Chatting during dinner washing-up the other evening, I mentioned to my wife that Sony has come out with a new high-performance mirrorless camera, with all sorts of features.

Me: And, it's got real-time eye autofocus.
Sue: Is it as good as [our son's] Fuji? (He's got an X-T3; we're always bantering about my Pentax.)
Me: It's better.
Sue: And how much does it cost?
Me: Ummm..... eighty-five hundred...
Sue: THERE'S NO WAY YOU'RE GETTING THAT!
Sue: Almost makes that new Pentax seem cheap and affordable... and you already have the lenses...

After a moment, she exclaimed

"Hey, just a second. Was that a ploy?"

My friends, I think that I'm in for the K-3 Mark III, thanks to Sony (pending intro price and early reviews, of course).

- Craig

I've been dropping little comments like that around my wife too. "Gosh honey, can you imagine spending $5000 on a camera and then another two or three K on a couple of lens cause their old ones aren't made for it? Geesh, some of these photographers are crazy!"

I think I'm making headway.

The thing is that they(wife’s) do know already what is going to happen. They play along and hope that you(husband) will do as little damage(spend money) as possible. Forever going on game of survival. (Disclaimer: this goes other way around too. And this applies to children-parent, relationship too)

[Dan Rentea]

Hmm... I don't think it's as simple as "the userbase said so".

If the user base don't buy the cameras you release, you end up like Olympus. Demand and supply... I have the very best example with a mall from Bucharest who signed contracts with restaurants and shops that 3-4 months later were empty most of the time because what they had to offer wasn't in the target of the people visiting that mall. Once they replaced the restaurants and shops with different ones, things started to change... Canon users let Canon know they are ready for mirrorless in 2 ways: some switched to Sony and some invested in RP, R and RF lenses. Once R5 and R6 have been released, the user base of Canon responded and it's shown in the financial report. The same user base, for Nikon this time, let Nikon know that what they released in terms of mirrorless doesn't match their expectations. They also let Nikon know that D780 it's not attractive anymore and that's why Nikon is facing some problems now. And most of what I said it's what one of the Nikon managers said...

Let's think a bit about the context of each company. With Sony, IMO, it's clear: they had big ambitions (way beyond Konica-Minolta's), and couldn't possibly challenge Canon for the top spot with DSLRs - they had to change, to play a different game.

Which they did by adding technologies advancement on the table and developing a need for certain features unique to their game called mirrorless (eye af, faster fps, silent shutter, lack of front/back focus, EVF, etc.). This need of new technologies made mirrorless gain the traction I wouldn't believe it can be possible 3 years ago given how bad the af or EVFs were back then.

Canon and Nikon... it doesn't look like their user bases are talking with a single voice; I remember some comments about how most of their sales are still DSLRs. But that's irrelevant to them.

Of course they were still selling more DSLRs because until the release of R6 and R5, Canon just released a 6D Mark II and a 5D Mark IV in mirrorless bodies and their user base wanted something different to use with their lenses or with the new RF lenses. They wanted a true successor of 5D Mark IV and 6D which were their most wanted cameras. The successor of 5D and 6D came in mirrorless shape and people jumped all over them. The impact of R5/R6 is seen in the financial report and it will be seen many months from now given that R5 and R6 are still on preorder in some countries due to huge demand. Nikon representatives said that they weren't ready to invest in mirrorless and they thought people will still buy DSLRs. D780 changed their approach due to low sales. The problem was they weren't ready for mirrorless, as they said in interviews.

Voices are and will be long time from now regarding the release of new DSLRs, as we see voices in Pentax forum from Pentaxians asking for a mirrorless camera. In Canon case, the voices became less and less pro DSLRs since the R5 and R6 have been released. I expect some moves from Nikon also this year.

IMO mirrorless - from the companies' perspective - is the new EOS mount; doing something new because it has great future potential, that is, in selling at high volumes. Olympus failed. For Sony it works well. Canon can't let Sony to the EOS thing on them, so they're targeting the #1 market share spot. Nikon is trying to keep up with whomever is the leader. It's like the Game of Thrones: you win or you die.
If a large part of the user base would've been happy with DSLRs... they're not more significant than the FD users were But in the end, for some of these companies, the gains will be greater than the losses.

Healthy companies look into future and one of the Canon's managers said more than clear that they made almost the impossible with 1Dx Mark III to offer such specs and features because and I quote "there isn't more room of improvement when comes to DSLRs". The mirror seems the limitation in his opinion in order to remain competitive with mirrorless on medium and long term. 1Dx Mark III looked impressive when it was released. But with R6 having the same sensor and close af performance at 4000$ less, you become aware of the advantages of the new mount.

I'm very curious what features will have the next Pentax DSLRs if they remain as it seems the only DSLR manufacturer. We see big improvements in K3 Mark III over K3 Mark II, but except OVF which it's a very nice addition, it's still room for lots of improvements in video or af performance (the lack of a dedicated af processor, or the lack of more cross type af points that helps when tracking are the hints that made me say there is room for improvements). I'm curious because it will be interesting to see where mirrorless will be 5 years from now in terms of performance and where DSLRs will be, strictly from the performance perspective, not from the sales perspective. Will the next K1 Mark III can beat D850 in terms of performance? If so, in which areas and by how much?

Long story short, I don't think it's people insistently asking for mirrorless, as much as people being driven to mirrorless - often forcefully.
The A1 is part of this; a camera made to impress; and the specs sheet indeed looks wow!. By the way, I don't remember ever seeing press releases with as many footnotes as for Sony cameras.

They were driven by Sony if we look at their market share and if their cameras or current Canon cameras weren't as good as they are now, it would have been impossible to fool so many photographers, professional and enthusiastic.