Originally posted by Dan Rentea If the user base don't buy the cameras you release, you end up like Olympus. Demand and supply...
I have the very best example with a mall from Bucharest who signed contracts with restaurants and shops that 3-4 months later were empty most of the time because what they had to offer wasn't in the target of the people visiting that mall. Once they replaced the restaurants and shops with different ones, things started to change... Canon users let Canon know they are ready for mirrorless in 2 ways: some switched to Sony and some invested in RP, R and RF lenses. Once R5 and R6 have been released, the user base of Canon responded and it's shown in the financial report. The same user base, for Nikon this time, let Nikon know that what they released in terms of mirrorless doesn't match their expectations. They also let Nikon know that D780 it's not attractive anymore and that's why Nikon is facing some problems now. And most of what I said it's what one of the Nikon managers said...
You wouldn't know Olympus had any issues by listening to their ambassadors
Being transferred to JIP will allow unprecedented development like never seen before, it seems
Anyway, Canon and Nikon users didn't all jumped to mirrorless, even as the option became available (Canon and Nikon and Pentax users didn't all jump to mirrorless, with the option available from other brands, for years). And both Canon and Nikon will force their user base to "decide" on mirrorless by making their DSLRs less attractive, even by killing the DSLR lines. An EOS move.
Sony did it first, transforming their DSLRs to the SLT kludge, which quickly became pointless with the first decent on-sensor AF.
We have less control than you think.
Originally posted by Dan Rentea Which they did by adding technologies advancement on the table and developing a need for certain features unique to their game called mirrorless (eye af, faster fps, silent shutter, lack of front/back focus, EVF, etc.). This need of new technologies made mirrorless gain the traction I wouldn't believe it can be possible 3 years ago given how bad the af or EVFs were back then.
I'd say the only "technologies advancement" is that some things are simpler with mirrorless; simpler mechanical construction, removal of several components with the addition of an electronic viewfinder. The development we're seeing happens because of that, and because companies would prefer to sell cheaper to develop products at a high price.
Except they got caught in a technology race... very expensive, they're basically trying to kill each other.
Originally posted by Dan Rentea Of course they were still selling more DSLRs because until the release of R6 and R5, Canon just released a 6D Mark II and a 5D Mark IV in mirrorless bodies and their user base wanted something different to use with their lenses or with the new RF lenses. They wanted a true successor of 5D Mark IV and 6D which were their most wanted cameras. The successor of 5D and 6D came in mirrorless shape and people jumped all over them. The impact of R5/R6 is seen in the financial report and it will be seen many months from now given that R5 and R6 are still on preorder in some countries due to huge demand. Nikon representatives said that they weren't ready to invest in mirrorless and they thought people will still buy DSLRs. D780 changed their approach due to low sales. The problem was they weren't ready for mirrorless, as they said in interviews.
I would not be surprised if they're selling more DSLRs even now. Clearly they were, until November at least (as CIPA published their statistics up to November 2020); and last year the 6D Mark II was already 3 years old.
Originally posted by Dan Rentea Voices are and will be long time from now regarding the release of new DSLRs, as we see voices in Pentax forum from Pentaxians asking for a mirrorless camera. In Canon case, the voices became less and less pro DSLRs since the R5 and R6 have been released. I expect some moves from Nikon also this year.
Perhaps people realized it's pointless to ask for improved DSLRs? I highly suspect people asking for more FD cameras similarly got quieter (except they didn't had the Internet to express their opinion on). You might even extend the analogy by pointing out the EOS/EF-mount was more advanced if you wish
Originally posted by Dan Rentea Healthy companies look into future and one of the Canon's managers said more than clear that they made almost the impossible with 1Dx Mark III to offer such specs and features because and I quote "there isn't more room of improvement when comes to DSLRs". The mirror seems the limitation in his opinion in order to remain competitive with mirrorless on medium and long term. 1Dx Mark III looked impressive when it was released. But with R6 having the same sensor and close af performance at 4000$ less, you become aware of the advantages of the new mount.
I believe Ricoh has some good idea about how DSLRs can be further improved. I'm not sure if it's feasible, if they'll really try it or it's yet undecided, if they'll try it and succeed or fail; but at least they're thinking about ways.
Of course, when you're promoting your brand new mirrorless line and want your customers to go there and buy all your new shiny equipment, DSLRs have to be presented as a dead end.
Originally posted by Dan Rentea I'm very curious what features will have the next Pentax DSLRs if they remain as it seems the only DSLR manufacturer. We see big improvements in K3 Mark III over K3 Mark II, but except OVF which it's a very nice addition, it's still room for lots of improvements in video or af performance (the lack of a dedicated af processor, or the lack of more cross type af points that helps when tracking are the hints that made me say there is room for improvements). I'm curious because it will be interesting to see where mirrorless will be 5 years from now in terms of performance and where DSLRs will be, strictly from the performance perspective, not from the sales perspective. Will the next K1 Mark III can beat D850 in terms of performance? If so, in which areas and by how much?
The K-1 Mark III should be a K-1 with the K-3 III's innards (and, I hope, a similarly improved viewfinder). I care less about beating this or that camera, as how well does it feel when I'd be using it.
What would be truly interesting (and more expensive than I'd be willing to pay) is a K-mount flagship. Not "APS-C flagship", not "landscape oriented FF at entry-level FF prices" but
flagship.
Originally posted by Dan Rentea They were driven by Sony if we look at their market share and if their cameras or current Canon cameras weren't as good as they are now, it would have been impossible to fool so many photographers, professional and enthusiastic.
It's driven by everyone but Pentax.