Originally posted by gofour3 Great news about the new Kodak film, I will also try it.
As for film going away, sorry no chance of that happening. Vinyl was supposed to disappear in the 1980’s when CD’s came out, but guess what it didn’t.
There are lots of things you can do with a manual film camera that you can’t do with a digital camera. What’s going to happen is that some digital users will revert back to film when they see the light and both will coexist just like vinyl and CD’s.
Well, the only place I can buy records where I live is a couple of used record stores. I can't buy em new here, and this is the way it is most places.
This isn't coexistence.
This is not to say that I am buying into your argument, just debating what you are saying.
The major difference between film for photographers and vinyl records for audio enthusiasts is that a person can practically press records in their basement. The manufacture is very low technology.
Vinyl is now a rump product with a few enthusiastic users, enough to perhaps support some low tech manufacturing.
Colour film, on the other hand, is not a low tech manufacturing process. At some point, the demand for colour film will dry up to the point that it isn't viable to make it anymore.
We've already seen the start of it. Agfa is gone, as is Konica. Kodak has outsourced pretty much all their manufacturing to China, and has dropped more emulsions than they have replaced over the last few years. I'm not sure about what Fuji is doing, but as has been pointed out, Japan is still a very large niche market for film.
Quixotically, it is also the market where Pentax does the best, IIRC.
Walk into any camera store in North America and look at what is available for film compared to a decade ago. There will be some there, but look closely.
Where I am, 120 film is barely available off the shelf, 220 is special order, and I have to buy a minimum amount, and possibly wait for a while until the shop has built up enough demand to place an order.
4x5 is available, but in much the same way as 220. I might be able to buy a box of sheet film today, I might not.
I spent almost a decade working in a photo lab for a company called Wal-Mart (hey, you gotta do something). When I started with them in 1997, the film rack at the store I was at was something like 24 feet long, with film in dump bins.
I was at that same store the other day, and noticed that their film rack (it's now a 4 foot pegboard) has a couple of different emulsions, and is sharing space with single use cameras.
When I stopped working for that company in 2006, film processing had taken 50% volume hits 2 years running. We went from considering a busy day at 700 rolls to a busy day at well under 200 rolls.
What did stay relatively stable over this time was single use camera processing, which went from under 5% of our processing volume in ~2000 to almost 60% of our volume in 2005.
The tech who I chatted with says they never once topped 100 rolls of film all summer this year, almost entirely from single use cameras.
The pro shop I buy from is telling me much the same thing. They aren't selling it and people aren't processing it.
Kodak is closing all their Qualex labs within the next few months, which pretty much is the wholesale film processing industry in North America closing it's doors.
What I see happening over the next few years is that the volumes will drop to the point that labs are no longer going to see their film processing machines as viable equipment and will start to retire them.
As that happens, people will be forced into other photographic media, be it digital or self processed B&W, which, incidentally, I do think has a fairly stable future.
Where film might have a support base is the developing world (I love puns!!). The only fly in this ointment is that the developing world is rather low income, so they can't afford a lot, and as this improves, they will want to become high tech quickly, and will either drop film in place of digital and their shiny new computers, or will skip film completely.
About the only thing you can do with a manual film camera that you can't do with a digital camera is shoot film, and I don't think that is going to prove to be enough. Certainly the manufacturers of manual film cameras don't seem to think so. They've gotten out of the film camera business, leaving them as a rump product for smaller manufacturers who also don't seem to be making very many of them.
I just had a look at the Cosina website. They are advertising a few rangefinder bodies, but no SLRs.
A Google search revealed that Vivitar had been bought by Sakar (who appears to own the Tokina brand as well), but the Sakar website is strangely devoid of SLRs, and the Vivitar name, but I was able to find one Vivitar SLR available on Amazon.
So, the tools required to shoot the stuff is no longer being made available as new, which means that the end use is supplied by "legacy" products and all the uncertainty that goes along with them, the labs who support the end user are either ceasing production completely (Qualex) or are suffering low enough volumes that eventually they won't be able to keep their machines in control, and the manufacturers themselves are going out of business, with the ones that are still around dropping products as fast as they can.
I admire your bright and sunny outlook, and I wish I shared it. However, three decades in the lab business, and watching what happened to it in the last decade I was involved with it hasn't let me keep an especially optimistic view of the long term prospects for film users.