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Pentax 15mm F3.5 SMC Super Multi Coated Takumar Lens M42
Posted By: richardwong, 08-15-2014, 05:54 AM

Asahi Pentax 15mm F3 5 SMC Super Multi Coated Takumar Lens M42 Pentax Screw MT | eBay

Look at what inflation has done to this lens! What a deal.
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08-15-2014, 10:26 AM   #2
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someone should tell them 15mm is not such a big deal in the digital era
08-15-2014, 10:50 AM   #3
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Can't believe it has 12 watchers
08-15-2014, 11:22 AM   #4
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11 of those have the same lens and are seeing what it goes for

08-15-2014, 11:35 AM   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by Johndav Quote
11 of those have the same lens and are seeing what it goes for
I doubt it -- that one (in m42) is actually incredibly rare, don't think I've ever seen it before. (Plus it has the aspherical element, making it even more rare probably.) According to the lens database, it was produced after the K-mount was introduced, so they probably didn't make many. Later K-mount versions go for $800-$1100...
08-15-2014, 12:12 PM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Johndav Quote
someone should tell them 15mm is not such a big deal in the digital era
It is a full frame lens and that is pretty wide for FF
08-15-2014, 12:56 PM   #7
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True about the FF but from a Pentax point of view, this feels a long way off
08-15-2014, 01:01 PM   #8
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JCO is a credible seller, a long-time (possibly founding) member of PDML and is a member here. I've bought several lenses from him over the years and still have all of them save one. My personal opinion through 15 years of observation is his prices are roughly 10% high - but you get what he says you get. He's like KEH in that regard.

(Others here accuse JCO of buying lenses on eBay when prices are down, holding them and selling them when interest and prices return. If he does that, more power to him). If you follow the Marketplace and look closely at his other listings - couple of those lenses look AWFULLY familiar.


Last edited by monochrome; 08-15-2014 at 01:08 PM.
08-15-2014, 01:51 PM   #9
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"Holding them [after buying on speculation, and waiting for] when interest and prices return..." Boy, if he can pull that off profitably, I agree with you 100%. Only fools in waiting think that's easy!
08-15-2014, 02:17 PM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kayaker-J Quote
"Holding them [after buying on speculation, and waiting for] when interest and prices return..." Boy, if he can pull that off profitably, I agree with you 100%. Only fools in waiting think that's easy!
From the outside looking in, that appears to be what he does.

He rarely lists more than 8 lenses at a time. There are periods where there are no lenses listed at all - or just non-Pentax - or just Hi-Fi gear. Initially he only listed M42 lenses, for many years just Takumars. There were bellows lenses (and Pentax bellows, too) and leaf shutter and cine lenses - all kinds of cool old stuff through the 1996-2006-ish years.

Then the K-mounts started to appear with a rare example of a Tak such as this week. His inventory has been essentially flat for months..
08-15-2014, 03:48 PM   #11
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Interesting, monochrome. I wonder if he has as many vacuum tube FM tuners lying around as I do (for example)? I only bought 'em to cherry pick for my own personal projects... but look away for 4 months or so, and wham! -- "sold" prices and buyer interest drop significantly, just like that. After, what... 69 years of big time radio? Who could really know?

These things are for audiophiles and true user/devotees, not collectors; so inferior sounding compressed digital music, misapprehended because of hype, would seem to have little to do with it. Maybe the convenience factor for the i-device and computer savvy just finally won out in the end. It also is plain that few radio stations have staff competent enough to put out clean, undistorted music anymore -- they almost all egregiously misuse the electronics provided by Orban, et.al., in a fantasy pursuit of "loudness" at the loudspeaker end. Straight from the mouth of the designer: this doesn't work... it only adds distortion in gobs!

The point is, of course, don't expect the economists' notorious fantasy to work out very well either -- "rational consumers making decisions in their own best interests". And when the theories go bust, you can't expect a rational Bayesian analysis to be initiated: you just tend to get more of the same. As in dogma... or "fog"-ma.

So naturally, speculators are playing a tough game. You can anticipate shrewdly 10 factors to influence the future... but no matter who you are, there are *thousands* of unanticipated contingencies and freak events out there just waiting to happen and land on your head in a heavy, rude fashion. Bengazi was like that. But, then, political footballs just get kicked to death these days.

Academic types and social scientists who study this sort of thing liken a belief in success for predicting future prices in most markets to "chimpanzees throwing darts at a wall chart". In many cases, I gotta go with the chimps.

If this fellow truly makes holding gear pay off over time, he must really be tuned in and on his toes, because these kinds of prices are much more demand based than supply based. And demand is about psychology, not typical econometric models. eBay's "completed auctions" reporting scheme is set up to encourage rapid price movements. This must be profitable for them. Less so for most consumers and small-timers, I should think.

The moral? Get into what you need for *right now* when opportunity beckons... and get out fast when your perceived needs change. Boy, do I wish I was better at taking my own advice.

Last edited by Kayaker-J; 08-15-2014 at 03:56 PM.
08-15-2014, 06:00 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kayaker-J Quote
Academic types and social scientists who study this sort of thing liken a belief in success for predicting future prices in most markets to "chimpanzees throwing darts at a wall chart". In many cases, I gotta go with the chimps.
Scintists rig the question so the answer serves their purpose.

Scientists want to measure perfection and then show that prediction of perfection among average participants is not possible over short time horizons. Behavioral Science cannot explain the 15% of market participants who consistently perform in the top quintile over longer time horizons - say rolling three - year periods - so it denies that they matter.

To me, movement within the top 20% is random noise, and is irrelevant. Those in the business of selecting exceptional managers, who eschew the quest for perfection, can consistently identify those top-quintile managers (by evaluating Personnel, Philosophy, and Process first, and THEN Performance), and predictively anticipate their behaviors so long as they constantly monitor the first three P's, and ruthlessly replace a manager when an element of the selection process changes.

I don't care about the difference between 80th and 99th. Give me 25 years. What's the difference between stupid success and obscene success?
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