I asked this is another thread in another subforum, but perhaps this is where it belongs.

We're now in the situation where the replacement or upgrade for the K-7 is coming very soon, obviously announced at Photokina. I'll probably buy either a K-7 or its replacemant later this year. I wonder what happened to the K20D prices after the announcement of the K-7, to K10D prices after the announcement of the K20D and so on? Do the prices rock bottom at that time? Or is the supply chain in nearly real time and the older product becomes very scarse soon?

[Adam]

They will
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Fall! (considerably, at least for the K-7)

[lance]

Waiting the Photokina on september.
See what pentax will bring us, hope the K-7 price fall to the bottom,maybe $750?,
I have been seeking it as long as one year!
God save me!

[KxBlaze]

I think it's logical to think the K7 and the Kx will drop (because they're suppose to announce 2 cameras) initially and then when stock becomes scarce the $ will bottom out until the stock is gone.

The real question is how much will the $ drop?

[interested_observer]

I am going off of memory here, but a year ago in April / May - so about 15 months ago, I was able to pick up a new K20 for $650, just immediately prior to the K7 announcement. However, the K20 was already out of production, however the exact K7's specifications were not known. The price was just too good for me to resist, and the bet was that there was nothing earth shattering and game changing in the K7, so I bit. The price - depending on the retailer, bottom out around about $620 or so.

As soon as the vast majority of the new K20s were gone the price rebounded up to the $700+ (some even as high as $1K in a couple of places - which surprised me), then settled down to where it is now - in the $500 - $600 range depending on condition, shutter count and additional amenities included. I also just read a post about several K20s sitting on the Marketplace untouched for a while now. The cameras underneath the K20 will affect the K20s price also. The K10 is about $300 along with the K100 at around $200 - which I think the *ist's are at also.

I would think that the K7 along with the Kx would follow a similar trajectory, however the timing and the price points will vary. The economy is different here - and that will probably factor in play to some degree. The other thing is that Pentax sweetened the pot with the extra 2 year warranty for the K20s - I suspect to move them out quicker, and to equal what they were offering on the K7s at the time.

I have been somewhat interested in watching what happens. For me I plan to probably lag one generation behind the present in what ever I buy in the future, however my K20 still takes wonderful images and there is still another 20 months left on the warranty, so I am set for quite a while.

[Nightwings]

All I can say is that the K-x replacement better be spectacular, because if it isn't, you'll see the used K-x market go through the roof.

[pxpaulx]

I think I am going to have a different take on the K-7. History does dictate that it should get into the $600 range, with this I agree. However, both the K20d and K10d before it had steady declines before reaching their floor (while they were still available new) - the K10 got into the $500 range and K20 into the $600 range. The K-7 was having the normal steady decline, however it has been at the current price (hovering around $800 for body only) for quite some time now. That tells me that despite much clamoring for a new body announcement, that retailers are still moving units at $800 (for body only - this is also the first time, it seems to me, that the body-only is being pushed as the primary seller, rather than a bundled kit lens, which seems far less prevalent a combination than it has with past bodies). If they are still moving, the price won't be going anywhere anytime soon. The K-x has also hovered right around $500 from within a few months of the launch date - another signal that their aggressive pricing after a year on the shelves may be going away.

I think we are seeing Pentax stick to their guns on pricing more than we have in the past. Though I think most here would agree their bodies are still a great value, I think the 50% off MSRP pricing nearing product the product life cycles that we have grown accustomed to may be a thing of the past.

[Marc Sabatella]

Depends on how low prices have already falled *before* the new model is announced, also on how the new model compares to the old. Typically, there hasn't been a ton of movement that I can recall, because in most cases older models had alreadyfallen about as low as they ever would, and indeed, in many cases, the old models became more expensive shortly thereafter as supply dried up.

[Lloydy]

The K20 is slowly creeping up again over here, I guess a good camera finds a level and stays there even after it is eclipsed by newer models.

[raider]

Unfortunately for those of us in Oz, the pentax gears don't drop that much even if new models are being introduced. Unless we buy from the States and ask for an international warranty, my personal attitude is that i buy when i have the budget to do so as there is no point waiting for price to fall.

[creampuff]

What will happen is production for the outgoing model will cease at some point. When this happens only the people at Pentax will know and kept under wraps. If the inventory level is sizable, the camera will be offered to the different Pentax country reps/agents at a special price for a last gasp marketing push. Once inventory is drawn down, this camera will start to disappear from the shelves and get increasingly harder to find and then officially discontinued. The only recourse at that point is the new replacement model.

So the K-7 will fall in price but only up to a point. As ready stocks dwindle, the price might actually hold or go up as people clamour to buy it before it is unavailable. Given the K-7's good response, I think this will likely be the case. It is a great camera for current money and the new incoming model will for certain have much higher, early adopter pricing.

[mattdm]

Depends on how low prices have already falled *before* the new model is announced, also on how the new model compares to the old. Typically, there hasn't been a ton of movement that I can recall, because in most cases older models had alreadyfallen about as low as they ever would, and indeed, in many cases, the old models became more expensive shortly thereafter as supply dried up.

What will happen is production for the outgoing model will cease at some point. When this happens only the people at Pentax will know and kept under wraps. If the inventory level is sizable, the camera will be offered to the different Pentax country reps/agents at a special price for a last gasp marketing push. Once inventory is drawn down, this camera will start to disappear from the shelves and get increasingly harder to find and then officially discontinued. The only recourse at that point is the new replacement model.

So the K-7 will fall in price but only up to a point. As ready stocks dwindle, the price might actually hold or go up as people clamour to buy it before it is unavailable. Given the K-7's good response, I think this will likely be the case. It is a great camera for current money and the new incoming model will for certain have much higher, early adopter pricing.

Yeah, those mirror my experience as well.

[Clicker]

I've noticed "no inventory" of out going model, they seem know when to stop stocking when new models are about to come to shelves

[Winder]

It depends on how good the original camera was and how much better the new camera is.

I can still sell my Canon 5D for over $1,000 which I think is pretty good considering it was a factory refurb that I picked up for under $2,000.

I bought the K-7 for $750 one year after it sold for $1,400.

It really depends on the camera and the demand for that body.

D3's have not gone down much even though they have been replaced.

[bymy141]

Why not look at data provided at some websites?

The pictures below are form the Dutch website Tweakers.net.
It gives you a good overview of what happens over time.

Here is the K20D + kitlens for the Dutch market (in €):



And here is the K-7 + kitlens:



And the K-x body:



You can see that the K20D started out around €1050, now €697, while the K-7 started off around €1200, now €927.
When the K-7 was released (Aug 09), there was no big price fall for the K20D before or after the introduction!
However, the K20D price had allready dropped gradually over time to € 697 and stayed more or less stable since then.

Be aware that these graphs show the *lowest* prices available on the internet for the Dutch market and the "gemiddelde" (average).
It may very well be that average street prices have dropped much more around the K-7 introduction.

I expect you will see the same effects for the new camera's to come.
Based upon that assumption, the lowest K-7 prices now will not change that much, while a new high end model will start at €1300 (1200+some devaluation).

Conclusion, if you are looking to buy a new K20D or K-7 now, just buy it. You might as well enjoy the camera today.
Waiting untill new models arrive will not impact price that much.

Cheers, Bert