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Sorry about the title.
However I have done some homework on it, hear me out.
I recently collected the prcing history of Pentax DSLR bodies in the last few year. (I got them from nextag, camelcamelcamel, and old dpreview posts. Yes its not very accurate but the price change alot near the end of the product cycle. Basically it will give you guys a rough idea where the price is going.)
This gave me a clearer picture of Pentax's release schedule.
As you can see, it's a rough idea so please allow +-$100USD margin of error. And I didn't include some low end bodies because there is no space in the grid.
The "top tier" (or prosumer if you will) body ist D was announced at the end of '03, and the low end body DL was released in late '06. So it took 2 and half years for the 6mp sensor to trickle down to the cheapest low end body. For the 10mp sensor, it took 2 years exactly, K10D came out at Photokina 06 and the K-M/K2000 came out at Photokina 08.
So assuming this is Pentax's way of controlling the production cycles, the 14mp sensor will show up on the low end body 2 year after the K20D, which is early 2010. Obviously the 14mp sensor will show up on the mid-tier body first. And I remember some interview said that the K-M chassis will be shared with other Pentax bodies, then I am guessing a K300 with a 14mp sensor will come out early '09. I don't know if it will have weatherproof since it may base on the K-M body.
As for the next sensor, going from the 6mp-10mp-14mp trend, I am guessing it will be a 18mp sensor, give or take, coming out on the K30. I think it will have a list price closer to K10D than K20D. The K10D had a very reasonable $899 list price and it hardly had any price drop in the first year of its release, unlike the K20D, which droped half of its price quickly. If we don't see a K20D Super in 09, we should see a 18mp K30 coming early 2010.
Now what about the full frame. As you can see from the table, historically, Pentax's top end body, including the MZ-s came out at around $1500-1700 listed. IF Pentax were planning a FF body, it would release one when its prossible and profitable to produce a FF body in that price range.
Pentax also tradionally favor IQ over focusing speed and other pro features. So I think it just make sense. Pentax can spend $1000 to buy a FF sensor from Sony and stuff it in a K200D body and sell it for $1500, it would still be the cheapest FF and lot of people will buy it. The reason Pentax is not doing it is because going with Samsung will save them some money.
So when will the FF bodies drop to the 1500-2000 range. Right now the D700 is 2500. You can get a A900 for slightly higher. Give them two years to drop to the 1500 range is very reasonable. I wouldn't be surpriced if Nikon eventually merge the D200/D300 line with the D700 line. Two years can also give Pentax enough time to position the D20/D30 line to a lower price/market.
Anyway I am saving money for a 2010 FF body.
Pentax or an used D700.