Originally posted by Anvh I'm no chance expert so correct me if i'm wrong.
If 1/10 of all cards fail, that means that if you've 1 card that you would have 10% that one would fail right?
If you've 2 cards, that would mean 1/10 + 1/10 = so that would mean there is 20% chance 1 of your cards would fail right.
So 2 times as much chance you got a bad card.
You're doubling the amount of cards, so instead of 1/10 it becomes 2/20, which is still the same 10%. Doesn't matter if it is 1 card or 100 cards, your odds of a failure is still 10% in your example. Now, having an insane amount of cards increases your probability that more than one will fail at the same time, but that really doesn't come into play in this situation because no one is carrying hundreds of cards.
A card isn't more likely to fail if you have a backup with you, the one sitting in your pocket doesn't get jealous of the one inside the camera and decide to corrupt itself.
It isn't a case of probability of failure, it is a case of damage control. If you are a professional on a paid shoot and lose a 32gb card with thousands of shots, you're really in a bad position, you have nothing to give your customer. If you lose an 8gb card, but have 3 other 8gb cards full, you might be able to salvage the shoot and still get paid. The actual failure rate of good SD cards is fairly low, so you might not ever have one fail, but it is still a good idea to protect yourself. Same reason many professionals carry duplicates of ALL of their gear, having a spare doesn't mean you're expecting a failure, it means you're prepared for one.