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Forum: Photographic Industry and Professionals 21 Hours Ago  
CIPA Feb 2020: Mirrorless still worse than DSLR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 32
Views: 1,024
My entire company of 250,000 was told Friday to plan for remote work (or rotating hours in customer-facing branches at full pay) until the end of May. My son has enough cash and credit to keep his business open at 10% of normal revenue until August, but revenue is dependent on high school and college athletic seasons. If schools open normally in September heíll survive but it will take 5 years to get back to where he was January 1st.

Everyone is guessing because we wonít be released from stay-at-home orders until we see how the virus is behaving and we just donít know what will happen with that.
Forum: Pentax SLR Lens Discussion 1 Day Ago  
16-50: Bad Idea?
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 57
Views: 1,212
For $300 or under already converted to screwdrive the 16-50 is a good value for the IQ but other lenses mentioned in this thread might serve you better. Personally, I have the 16-50 and DA35 Macro (not WR) rather than the mentioned DA zooms. I bought it last year to play with at a low price - not a well thought out decision. It is certainly large and heavy which is a hassle considering the bag options I have. I'll likely sell it and the 50-135 and move to (legacy) FF zooms. If I'm going to own heavy lenses I'd rather own FF Star zooms and use the K-1.
Forum: Photographic Industry and Professionals 1 Day Ago  
CIPA Feb 2020: Mirrorless still worse than DSLR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 32
Views: 1,024
Economic activity - employment, consumption, production, capital investment, Fiscal spending, tax revenue - all these are real. M * V = P * Q1 is theory, and good theory at that.


Investment is rational. Trading ticker symbols in the stock market is something else entirely, governed by Behavioral Finance, which is psycho.

You seem t be talking about the stock market. I'm talking about the Economy. Current circumstances are real - very real. They likely will improve over time and there likely will be relative normality at some point next year, but nevertheless there will be real, permanent financial damage, real demand destruction, real impairment of capital (some of it permanent - see airlines and restaurants) real fear among the population to venture back out, and possibly Coordination2. We need to be very thoughtful and deliberate about how we order our decisions for the next couple years. For a rational investor with staying power and a long term view, this is likely an opportunity to own shares of great companies at once-a-decade prices and put them away for - essentially - ever. I'm actually a cautious optimist longer term but a realist very short term.

At this point I think it best that we move on to a more photography oriented discussion, OK?



1. Money Supply x Velocity of Money = Production * GDP Deflator (1-Inflation). The Velocity of Money always declines substantially in these crises. in 4Q2008 V declined 50%. This time would be worse but for recent Monetary and Fiscal actions.
2. Consumers won't buy (at the margin) until their jobs are secure. Producers won't hire to restart production until they're sure there are people who will buy their products. The Fed's big fear is that we lock up in this "Coordination" at the end of the forced shutdown.
Forum: Photographic Industry and Professionals 1 Day Ago  
CIPA Feb 2020: Mirrorless still worse than DSLR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 32
Views: 1,024
A 25% decline followed by a 25% recovery leaves us at 93.75% of where we started. The <6.25% > is the value of economic destruction encountered. There is nothing virtuous about this circle.
Forum: Pentax K-3 1 Day Ago  
why I won't buy a k3 (Warning: Satire Thread)
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 76,707
Views: 2,890,320
I came in here to read a few posts and what did I get*? Existentialism, George Janes and scatological humor.

Why?

*Bacon is good. Did you know bacon now comes in little microwaveable 4-slice porches? Just perfect for two.
Forum: Pentax News and Rumors 1 Day Ago  
HD Pentax-D FA 70-210mm f/4 ED SDM WR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 1,350
Views: 96,046
Better than the DFA100 and FA*200/8. Heavy, sharp, but 200mm is too long for my living room :cool:
Forum: Pentax News and Rumors 1 Day Ago  
HD Pentax-D FA 70-210mm f/4 ED SDM WR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 1,350
Views: 96,046
I think @normhead means - because we never experienced AF failures in the screwdrive era, the SDM deal was doubly shocking relative to our elevated expections.

AFA 60-250 SDM, I understand the difference between the SDM motors and agree with normhead academically, but Iím just not going to take the risk without the ability to convert it. Iím not all that unhappy with the screwdrive on the 16-50 and 50-135, but I bought the used FA*80-200/2.8 instead of the 60-250.

Iíll probably go 100% FF anyway soon, letting go of all the DA lenses. The jury is out on whether I upgrade KP to K-new or just make the KP my backup camera.
Forum: Photographic Industry and Professionals 1 Day Ago  
CIPA Feb 2020: Mirrorless still worse than DSLR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 32
Views: 1,024
I think you don’t really understand the economic damage that has been and will be done and how long it will take to recover. We’re suggesting a 2-quarter reduction in GDP of unprecedented numbers. This is a disinflationary/deflationary event. Not 2008-2009, but nevertheless economic growth, employment and capital investment will be slowed dramatically for many years. Interest rates will be zero for half a decade.

While basic consumption will resume in 2021, marginal consumption won’t even start to recover until 2022 - and that assumes we don’t need to go back into hibernation this coming winter.
Forum: Photographic Industry and Professionals 1 Day Ago  
CIPA Feb 2020: Mirrorless still worse than DSLR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 32
Views: 1,024
LVMH will proceed with its acquisition of Tiffany. They know in bad times wealthy people don’t change their spending behavior much. China is the ostentatious spending market of the future.
Forum: Pentax News and Rumors 1 Day Ago  
HD Pentax-D FA 70-210mm f/4 ED SDM WR
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 1,350
Views: 96,046
As the owner of two failed SDM DA* zooms that Iíve converted to screwdrive, ďbetterĒ doesnít move the needle for me.
Forum: Pentax Mirrorless Cameras 1 Day Ago  
Pentax Mirrorless?
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 274
Views: 26,418
After some thought here are some points RE a Pentax MILC:
  1. Ricoh Imaging would likely need to move away from SocioNext since video is a high-demand feature of MILC

  2. Ricoh Imaging would need to source EVF’s and ground-up develop Firmware to handle the display

  3. Ricoh Imaging would need to develop a new mount to gain the benefits of MILC. K-mount and an AF screwdrive + electronic adapter just isn’t going to work.

  4. Using Q as a precedent, Ricoh Imaging could develop a new mount and source lenses from a Third Party such as Nidec Copal - but would they?

  5. Ricoh Imaging would need to ground-up design the manufacturing process and fund the capital investment for the machines.

Would they do all that under the Pentax brand or build on the GR know-how under the Ricoh brand?
Forum: General Photography 2 Days Ago  
April Fools - Pentax D FA 35mm f1.4 may be down the pipeline??
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 14
Views: 927
IOW - More than a pipe dream, less than a pipeline.
Forum: Pentax Mirrorless Cameras 2 Days Ago  
Pentax Mirrorless?
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 274
Views: 26,418
By their own public statements Pentax is the DSLR brand and Ricoh is the new technology brand.

Besides - the likelihood Ricoh Corp would allocate the capital to develop a new mount and a complete suite of lenses - well, it is non-zero, but certainly quite unlikely.. And the whole K-Mount adapter thing wonít help. Why wouldnít I just buy a known product and an adapter for K-mount lenses?
Forum: Pentax Mirrorless Cameras 2 Days Ago  
Pentax Mirrorless?
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 274
Views: 26,418
There might be a Ricoh MILC, but not a Pentax.
Forum: Pentax Mirrorless Cameras 3 Days Ago  
Pentax Mirrorless?
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 274
Views: 26,418
UHMMM, looking at my K-01 I don’t see a mirror but since I don’t see an EVF I guess that means a K-01 isn’t a mirrorless camera. It does have a K-mount, which seems to negate most of the supposed benefits of MILC’s though. There will never be a Pentax EVF mirrorless camera.
Forum: Pentax Mirrorless Cameras 3 Days Ago  
Pentax Mirrorless?
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 274
Views: 26,418
^^ Yes, Yes it does.*


* K-01
Forum: Pentax News and Rumors 3 Days Ago  
HD Pentax-D FA★ 85mm f/1.4 SDM AW
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 226
Views: 16,316
I wonder who paid Peter to do this? I can’t believe someone would do this out of mere personal animus toward Pentax.
Forum: Pentax Full Frame 3 Days Ago  
DofF K-1
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 9
Views: 461
I use DoF Preview lever rather than Green Button for metering manual lenses whether in OVF or LV. It turns on the meter for decisions ev EV Comp.
Forum: Pentax Film SLR Discussion 4 Days Ago  
Can I save my LX screen? I messed up....
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 28
Views: 871
Here’s a replacement SA-21 at KEH for $40. I’d email them to ensure it includes the plastic case and installation tool (tweezers).

Of course the postage will probably double that.
Forum: Pentax News and Rumors 4 Days Ago  
HD Pentax-D FA★ 85mm f/1.4 SDM AW
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 226
Views: 16,316
I want it, but I don’t need it - and certainly not first day of issue. I have the K85/1.8 and the Auto-Takumar 85/1.8 (a different formula) for use on K-1, so once things have improved and I’ve sold some stuff I’ll get it in the fall.

There’s a part of me that dreams of selling all my collected gear and having just Pentax FF bodies and FA* / DFA* and FA Limited lenses.
Forum: Photographic Industry and Professionals 5 Days Ago  
Sony Camera Division and all EP&S segment moving outward
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 44
Views: 1,772
You can order a nearly custom build on a Mini - at least you could have - and expect(ed) delivery in 6 weeks. Of course Porsche, and BMW a bit less custom, and Audi just colors and packages. Japanese imports you get what the dealer has.
Forum: Pentax K-3 5 Days Ago  
why I won't buy a k3 (Warning: Satire Thread)
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 76,707
Views: 2,890,320
Yep. Like that sort of.
Forum: Pentax SLR Lens Discussion 6 Days Ago  
Ephotozine Pentax HD Pentax-D FA 70-210mm f/4 ED SDM WR Review
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 45
Views: 2,267
I recall reading each DFA*50/1.4 was hand tested and some were sent back for tuning. Pentax was apparently unable to run their machines at production speed with sufficient tolersnces to do otherwise.

I suspect many of their machines are elderly.
Forum: Pentax K-3 6 Days Ago  
why I won't buy a k3 (Warning: Satire Thread)
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 76,707
Views: 2,890,320
People in Missouri are reportedly delivering bags full of fast food at truck stops - which are overwhelmed because they are understaffed - and not accepting payment. They’re just handing the bags up to the cab. Wish them well and the truckers haul. Logs be damned. Missouri has relaxed weight limits and axle tariffs at the weigh stations.
Forum: Pentax K-3 6 Days Ago  
why I won't buy a k3 (Warning: Satire Thread)
Posted By monochrome
Replies: 76,707
Views: 2,890,320
Grouped generally under treating.
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